People tend to have a poor understanding of predictive statistical models.
Statistical models are terrible at predicting a singular incident, but are
designed to predict an aggregate of incidents. If a model predicts that we will
see a XX decline in rainfall over the next 30 years, it likely has a strong
point of certainty in that outcome. That doesn't mean that there won't
be aberrations in that model. Flip a coin 100 times and you will get near 50
heads and 50 tails, but you can't use that to predict whether your next
flip will be heads or tails. Same thing here. This happens in political
forecasts a lot. 538 predicted a 67% chance for Hillary to win and 33% for
Trump. People said that the forecasts were wrong because Trump one, but not
necessarily. The forecast had Trump winning 1/3 times, which are not terrible
odds to begin with. It is always a bad idea to rely on statistical
forecasts to predict singular events and remember that they are much stronger at
predicting trends or an aggregate of outcomes.
@FelisConcolor,"If the climate models can't even predict
the weather a year in advance with any degree of certainty, then why should
anyone trust them when they predict a significantly hotter climate a decade or
century from now?"You answered your own question with that first
phrase. GCMs (general circulation models) model *climate* not weather. Weather
is an individual instance of a climatic outcome, while climate is an
aggregate/average of all weather events. Don't use GCMs to forecast weather
a year in advance--they won't work because they aren't intended to
predict weather a year in advance. They rather give multi-year predictions of
ranges of climatic averages and trends.
"I wonder how long it will be before the climate change deniers start
saying; "this is proof there is no global warming, we have snow in our
backyard." "Here's a fun exercise: Go back and scan
the news stories from just last fall and see if you can find someone -- anyone
-- from the scientific community who correctly predicted the near-record
precipitation this past winter and spring.When Governor Herbert
signed the drought emergency declaration last October, I don't remember a
single meteorologist saying "This really isn't necessary; our models
predict the state will have an exceptionally wet winter".Indeed,
virtually all of them said the opposite: Utah was in a drought, the Great Salt
Lake was disappearing, Lake Powell would soon be dry, and it was all going to
get worse due to climate change.If the climate models can't
even predict the weather a year in advance with any degree of certainty, then
why should anyone trust them when they predict a significantly hotter climate a
decade or century from now?
Glad for the water.
Crazy how quickly Mother Nature can turn things around. I wish this year was the
rule rather than the exception. It's glorious to have all this water and
the cooler temperatures are most definitely welcome!
@ quackquackSo I’m guessing you have a thing against data
centers. I haven’t looked into it, but it seems that using water as a
coolant only changes the temperature. It could still water some grass and trees.
@MabelPinesWater rights can be modified. And it is
also important to let enough water go down stream. We actually don’t want
the Great Salt Lake to dry up. However, we also don’t need Utah Lake to
lose 50% of its inflow to evaporation. We could dredge it. Also,
rather than capture the runoff in one area, we can simply slow it down through a
series of small dams and reservoirs which we would completely drain over the
summer. Slowing down a runoff from overflowing river banks is not going to harm
anyone’s water rights. It would just provide a more steady flow.
I live in Central Utah. We do not have a reservoir to capture the excessive
runoff (and our river is currently flooding a small, minor amount). Why do we
not have a reservoir? Because of environmentalists. We actually submitted
plans to build one... 80 years ago. We've been trying for over 80 years to
build a reservoir, but leftists and environmentalists from out east have
steadily blocked it. We've even tried to get Congress to pass a specific
authorization, but no, the coastal leftists think they know better and they
absolutely refuse to allow it be built, even if it would provide safe hydro
power that is renewable. But they don't want new renewable
energy, because they want us all in the dark starving and freezing to death.
This is proof there is no global warming, we have snow in our backyard.
"When the data is released later this year, it will be the first time the
water world has a full understanding of the reservoir's true
capacity,"It will give an understanding of the reservoir's
*current* capacity, but that is subject to change as sediment continues to
accumulate. @TumbleweedOil and water are not comparable
in price at the volumes that can be delivered long distances by pipelines. As
far as I know, the engineering is possible. The economics are prohibitive,
though. Current water rates in Salt Lake County put the price per block (748
gallons) at the highest tier is $3.69, or $0.0049/gal. At today's oil
price, oil is over $1.40/gal. That's 200 times larger than what people are
paying for water for municipal use. Agricultural use is typically valued much
less than municipal. I don't know the costs of building oil pipelines, but
I'm guessing it's not profitable at 1/200th of current oil prices.
To "quackquack" at least 1/3 of the water from the data center is
recycled. Nearly all of the water used to cool the system could be recycled. As
for the Air Conditioning system, that does not use water. Air Conditioners use
Freon to cool the air. When in use an Air Conditioner will REMOVE water from the
air, which could be captured and recycled.
@Harrison Bergeron, @quackquackYou can't just capture all the
water in one area. Water rights are tricky, tricky things. People downstream own
their shares of the water too, and even in a surplus, excess must be allowed to
distribute down the chain.@TumbleweedEnvironmentalists
and lawmakers (mostly from back east, where water storage isn't as
necessary) have effectively blocked all dams and reservoirs for decades. Most
dams were constructed after WWI, the most recent ones built back in the
80's. We can't even clear dead wood to prevent gigantic fires like
last summer, can you imagine the uproar if we tried to dig up thousands of miles
for a pipe? Your ideas are good ones, that would get strangled in all the red
tape of some group trying to preserve a species of beetle.
We should build more dams. Furthermore, if we can build oil pipelines across
the country, why can't we build water pipelines that reduce the risk of
flooding in areas often flooded by diverting water to places in the country that
often experience drought?
I wonder how long it will be before the climate change deniers start saying;
"this is proof there is no global warming, we have snow in our
@Harrison Bergeron - Salt Lake City, UT"We need to capture the
overabundance and release it during the lean times."Why ? Utah
would just sell it like they sell every other natural resource, Bluffdale City
& Hatch sold the NSA 1.2 million gallons of water a day to cool their data
center, How many more Data center are popping up here in Utah as of now Facebook
& Amazon have their data centers here. All these Data center use Air
Conditioning to cool the data centers those Air Conditioning units use hundreds
of gallons of water per day.
Kralon,This time last year the level was 20 feet higher because the snow
melt and runoff was nearly complete in the mountains upriver. This year the
runoff has barely started due to the cooler temperatures. With the large amount
of snow still needing to come down, lake powell will be much higher after this
summer than it was last year.
A state that routinely has to take serious flood control measures does not have
a water shortage; it has an uneven water supply. We need to capture the
overabundance and release it during the lean times.
"Lake Powell, too, is slowly coming up and will fill some more, added Cory
Angeroth, director of the U.S. Geological Survey's Utah Science Center.The lake sits at an elevation of 3,591.7 feet compared to 3,612 feet
this time last year."So, Lake Powell being 20 feet lower than it
was last year at this time is a good thing? Is that because the temperature has
been cooler so it will continue to rise over a longer period of time or ?