Under President Trump consumer confidence rises to 17-year high, 9.7 out of 10
based on 3 ratings. Trump haters will REALLY get mad when he is re-elected in
Bar none, this is the truest thing you will read all day:If
I’m Dear Leader, I’d be a scared my approval rating is only at 40%
when the economy is quite good.
The Trump apologists are giddy about the economy because they have been drinking
the kool-aid (or swimming in it, as the case may be) and embracing the
short-term (relatively) rosy view; willfully ignoring any economic clouds that
may also be on the horizon.Trump and his congressional enablers
"goosed" an already-growing economy nearing full employment to produce
exceptional short-term economic numbers to brag about. The problem is that
those exceptional numbers aren't sustainable, and they come with some
fairly unpleasant consequences.Where they see an economy that
"is the envy of the world", I see an unemployment rate below full
employment (inflationary, unsustainable), a flat yield curve threatening to
invert (almost always leads to recession), declining consumer confidence
(consumption = 2/3 GDP), slowing business investment, increasing business debt,
a prolonged trade war with China (economic drag), and the beginnings of a global
economic slowdown. Many economists are concerned about these same things.Consequently, I see the strong possibility of a recession beginning in
Q1/Q2 of 2020. It's not a sure thing, but the indicators are increasingly
pointing that way.
The White House propaganda machine is in full swing with Fox News, Donald
Trump's personal information source, reaching out to its viewers to shape
the message. However, it appears that the only people for whom this information
is directed is the 32% of believers. Somehow, the White House doesn't care
about the rest of the American public being content to just muddy the waters and
leave them to look elsewhere for confirmation of the information they're
getting fed.Now we're having Trump's own economic advisors
telling him that his expectation of permanent 3% growth is just a figment of his
mind and it's not going to happen unless some major things are done to the
economy. The 2017 tax cut for the wealthy isn't doing it. The tariff war
with the world is causing serious harm. Spending is out of control, and the debt
is increasing beyond anything we have ever seen before.In other
words, the good economy inherited from Barack Obama is at risk of going into
free fall and bringing on another recession that will impact Trump's
re-election effort. Couple this with the baggage that he carries and defeat is
looking Trump right in the eye. Maybe the Russians won't be much help this
@thid barker"The Federal government meddling in the housing market
caused the last recession, not banks and not the GOP!"Except
'government meddling' was not remotely the cause of the last
recession. In fact, the recession was accelerated by the absence of regulation
more than the presence. That, combined with an abundance of greed and the
socialization of corporate losses.
@Thid Barker"Our GDP is nearly twice what it was during the previous
administration "That's false. What you presumably meant to
say is GDP growth, which is misleading since you're either just picking out
2016 or you're including the inherited recession.2019: -2.5%2010: 2.6%2011: 1.6%2012: 2.2%2013: 1.8%2014: 2.5%2015: 2.9%2016: 1.6%2017: 2.2%2018: 2.9%Trump's average is 2.55% with a forecast closer to 2% for 2019.Obama's post recession average is 2.17%. His second term average was
I invite those claiming a miraculous "Trump economy" to point an exact
month in his administration when he turned it all around from those awful Obama
years. Exactly when was the inflection point, and what policy can we credit?
Shouldn't be too hard to do that by looking at a few economic charts
between 2009 and the present.
"Democrats can explain, defend and admire Venezuela's economy!"How is this a rational comment? It is all well and good to draw
comparisons, but let's base such on reasonable grounds. The Democratic
party supports implementation of a Venezuelan style economy. Never will."Our GDP is nearly twice what it was during the previous
administration"Another gem of overdoing partisanship. Context
is everything. Obama started out in a deep hole and ran an 8 year course.
Trump inherited good GDP growth and we only have two years to compare to. And
BTW, while the Trump GDP is higher than the Obama GDP, it is not double. "We have better trade deals with our more of our trading partners
and our allies are paying for their own military protection"We
are still in trade wars, with unsettled deals. The "new" NAFTA is a
rehash of the old one anyway. And please explain how our allies are repaying us
for our policiing services. Again, it is well and good to gloat over
accomplishments. However, to date they are not exactly all that remarkable, if
even effected. Silly boosterism.
Bill Clinton and Barney Frank decided everyone should own a house, even if they
could not service their mortgages. Enter government backed and finance Fannie
Mae and Freddy mac and millions of ninja (no assets, no job, no income) housing
loans! The demand for housing exploded and so did the costs of homes (supply and
demand). Millions found their homes with underwater mortgages and walked away
leaving banks with billions in toxic loans. The Federal government meddling in
the housing market caused the last recession, not banks and not the GOP! Obama
bailed out the banks with borrowed money and added more national debt than all
other presidents combined! No charge for this lesson in recent history!
Remember when the economy was humming along during the Bush years, remember the
tax rebates, tax cuts, increased spending? Remember Obama having to
bail out the worst recession since the great one that the GOP created? Yeah, righties seldom remember that far back, which is why it will repeat, and
the GOP will blame the Democrats.
Rational Americans will take and prosper from our booming economy while
Democrats can explain, defend and admire Venezuela's economy!
The short term quest for immediate media coverage, love and loyalty cares very
little about the future of the economy and encourages bubbles.
The headline sums up the last two years.But the narrative differs
from the real world.
Our economy is the envy of the world! Wages are up, taxes are down, unemployment
is near record lows and is at all time record low levels for minorities! Our GDP
is nearly twice what it was during the previous administration and the DOW is
over 26K again! We have better trade deals with our more of our trading partners
and our allies are paying for their own military protection! Our air and water
are cleaner and our military is the best in the world. The wall on our S. border
is going up and every part of life in America is getting better! Only a jealous,
angry Democrat would complain about all of this American growth and prosperity!
Dear Leader's reign rests on a one legged stool: The economy. That is the
only area of his presidency where receives positive marks. He better hope the
economy keeps humming along. It is the ONLY chance he has of being reelected.
If the economy goes south, the Democrats can nominate a decent,
level-headed animal control officer from Spokane and she will beat Dear Leader.
Well, so far, Trump has been right and all the "pundits" wrong. So, I
am not really worried.
Well, based on a 2 year track record, people know that whatever the White House
tells us, pretty much the opposite is true.