Doug Robinson: NBA free agency is entirely predictable — and all wrong

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  • CJ Miles Dallas, TX
    July 9, 2014 4:57 p.m.

    San Antonio proved you do not need a superstar scorer to win a championship. If you watched the finals, they did it on ball movement with quick solid passing and cutting. Carmelo is a not a team player. He is a volume shooter who hurts the team overall. Hayward is not a ball hog but he can't be counted on to score when the game is on the line. Max contract players should have that ability along with other intangibles. Does Hayward make his other teammates better? Does he play effective defense? Is he a leader on and off the court? And most of all, does he really want to be in Utah? I question his will to win.

  • cowboy99 South Jordan, UT
    July 9, 2014 3:25 p.m.


    I was merely using Hayward as an example of how past shooting percentages do not equal current ability or future production so you're basically agreeing with me.

    Ability can be difficult to measure objectively but there are shot maps that show shooting percentage at each section of the half court and true shooting %'s which is an adjusted figure based off of 3 point and free throw percentage and percentage on shots in a low shot clock.

    I would say the best way would be to watch a ton of film on players and evaluate how well they perform under similar situations this is admittedly a little subjective but that's why GM's are paid the big bucks.

    I'm just saying that it's pretty crazy to say Chris Anderson is more valuable than Carmelo Anthony. When he couldn't dream of doing things Anthony can.

  • Objectified Richfield, UT
    July 9, 2014 2:25 p.m.

    @ JRM:

    Two things you need to consider regarding your statement. First, those two foundation players for the Spurs were taken an average of almost 20 years ago. Plus, the Spurs only played with both for a relatively short time. The team has been a near-dynasty for the past half dozen years and the most consistent in the NBA for over a decade.

    Secondly, those are only 2 out of 14 or 15 players on their team. They started building with a couple of good lottery picks, but then finished building their team with trades and/or 2nd round picks. They have many more of those than lottery picks. Duncan is still very good, but hasn't carried the team on his shoulders for quite awhile.

    Therefore, there article's statement about the Spurs is totally valid.

  • Brio Alpine, UT
    July 9, 2014 2:10 p.m.

    @ cowboy99:

    You obviously don't understand this guy's system. If the Jazz had used it, they would've never made Hayward their #1 offense option, since his percentages had previously (and still are) going down each year he's been in the NBA. However, they did and the results are history as far as the team record goes. But taking lots of shots... good and bad... is now getting Hayward a max-contract.

    Besides that, he's never been in a position when he's been forced to take more shots. Taking shots are the determination of players, unless they get too carried away and consequently benched. It's only a small percentage of time that shots are taken without other options. If that happens often, then their entire offense plan needs to be re-done.

    You didn't explain how you would determine which player is most able to make shots toward the end of shot clocks. You seem to be indicate that it's determined by non-objective criteria. But when putting together determinations, numbers usually work better than anything else. That's why the entire science of statistical analysis exists. This system also combines many other factors.

  • JRM Salt Lake City, UT
    July 9, 2014 1:48 p.m.

    The spurs did build their team on lottery picks, both David Robinson and Tim Duncan were picked no. 1. That's what got their winning ways going.

  • Brio Alpine, UT
    July 9, 2014 1:17 p.m.

    It would extremely interesting to put together a team using this guy's objective-based system and see the actual results.
    The premise of his predictions makes a lot of sense. And it could very well carry over into the real world of basketball. But until an actual team is put together based on this system, we won't know for sure.

    It's doubtful any system is perfect. But this one seems to make a lot of sense. It's hard to argue with it.

  • cowboy99 South Jordan, UT
    July 9, 2014 1:14 p.m.

    I can appreciate that Carmelo Anthony is a little overrated but this guy's logic is pretty out of wack. There is no way that you could honestly say there are 48 other free agents you would rather have over Anthony.

    This logic seriously discounts ability. Just because Chris Anderson has a good field goal percentage from his extremely cautious shot selection doesn't mean I want to give him the ball when I need a bucket.

    There's a 24 sec shot clock so careful shot selection only goes so far. Eventually someone has to take that shot and I want it to be the person who is most ABLE to do it.

    The Jazz essentially already tried this guy's logic this past year by promoting Hayward to our number 1 option. With a careful shot selection, he had very good shooting percentages the previous year but when he was made the man and had to take more shots those percentages dropped off big time becuase he lacks ability.

  • crowhawk south Jordan, UT
    July 9, 2014 1:04 p.m.

    Please have someone from the Jazz management read this and pay attention. They are about to make a really bad mistake with Hayward. A 63 million dollar bad mistake.

  • Brave Sir Robin San Diego, CA
    July 9, 2014 10:35 a.m.

    "And those unconfirmed reports of Gordon Hayward being offered a max deal by the Cavaliers? If true, that’s just nonsensical."

    Almost right...turns out it was Charlotte. And the only thing more nonsensical than that is that the Jazz - who could easily walk away - are going to match it.

  • oldcougar Orem, UT
    July 9, 2014 8:00 a.m.

    Now that makes sense!

  • Million Bluffdale, UT
    July 9, 2014 6:02 a.m.

    It is always good to see another perspective that is well thought out and not just a shoot-from-the-hip commentary we get so much of.

  • CJ Miles Dallas, TX
    July 9, 2014 12:09 a.m.

    This might be the best article written in a long time. I totally agree that Hayward, Bosh and Anthony are all way over-rated. I think the Jazz brass should go after players who can help them win and have some time in the league to prove their worth. Hayward has not proven his worth at all with his poor shooting.