New Romney vs. Obama polls split directions

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  • davidctr ,
    Oct. 18, 2012 10:28 p.m.

    "Because Gallup’s polls usually take large sample sizes, statistical variance alone probably cannot account these sorts of shifts. It seems to be an endemic issue with their methodology.

    To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.

    The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around." By NATE SILVER NYTimes

  • worf Mcallen, TX
    Oct. 18, 2012 12:35 p.m.

    Years ago while driving through Oklahoma, I stop at a McDonald's. A young lady took my order than started a short conversation. Being young, and trying to be impressive, I told her that I went to school with a Chicago Bear quarterback named Jim McMahon. This was a true statement, but I actually never met him. Amazingly, the young lady appeared to fall in love with me.

    These are the kind of things politicians do with campaigning. Take credit for things they didn’t do.

    As American patriots, may we observe and use common sense. No candidate is perfect, but there are differences

  • atl134 Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 11:46 a.m.

    It's 7 points today but there is a trend that favors Obama. Okay first note that this is a 7 day polling average (Oct 11-17).

    Gallup also does 3 day rolling averages of Obama job approval. Today (Oct15-17) Obama has 50-44 approval. That seems pretty good for Obama and is an improvement over previous days so what's going on? Well 8-9 days ago (Oct 7-9) Obama had a 53-42 approval gap but from Oct 11-14 Obama's approval was 48-47.

    So the 7 day average is seeing Obama's really good days when his approval-disapproval margin was 10 points disappear while it's adding in the current days where his approval margin is 6 points but retains the days where his approval margin was 1 point. Over the next few days the 48-47 type approval days are going to drop from the 7 day average. If Obama maintains a 50-44 approval type score, we can expect to see him gain several points in Gallup over the next couple days.

    I'm not saying this to "make excuses", just to provide context.

  • DarkKnightLight CENTRAL, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 11:45 a.m.

    I'm waiting for the poll that comes out November 6th that says "Mitt Romney elected President of the United States!"

  • Third try screen name Mapleton, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 11:26 a.m.

    Unless I'm misreading the article, those are NATIONAL poll numbers.
    Romney got a boost from the 1st debate. Ryan did well in the polls after his debate.
    These numbers are premature for the 2nd presidential debate.
    Romney appears to be gaining on Obama in general, including the swing states.
    Again, the results of the 2nd debate are not fully reflected in these polls.

  • liberal larry salt lake City, utah
    Oct. 18, 2012 9:26 a.m.


    FYI, Utah, has 6 electoral votes.

    Oct. 18, 2012 8:47 a.m.

    This story seems a little off. I really don't pay much attention to polls; but, Romney would probably beat the President by about 85 percentage points among "likely voters" in Utah. He would still only get 5 electoral votes.

    I'm really not seeing any information here. If they only polled voters in swing states, then I'm listening.

  • J-TX Allen, TX
    Oct. 18, 2012 7:49 a.m.

    Hey, Larry; You saying it doesn't make it so. Sounds like you're grasping at straws. (polls - straws, get it?)

  • Phillip M Hotchkiss Malta, Mt
    Oct. 18, 2012 7:37 a.m.

    To larry alwaysbet on the long shot and under dogs.

  • liberal larry salt lake City, utah
    Oct. 18, 2012 7:14 a.m.

    You can always find a poll that supports your guy. The best guide is the average of multiple reputable polls. Real Clear Politics shows a slight contraction of Romney's bump from the first debate. Romney's average poll lead is a scant .4%, down from about a 2 point lead after Obama's "no show" first debate. The electoral lead for Obama is 201 to Romney's 191.

    Betting on the very predictive political gambling site, Bovada, shows Obama as a 2 to 1 favorite.

  • Rifleman Salt Lake City, Utah
    Oct. 18, 2012 5:59 a.m.

    Obama made promises during the 2008 presidential election that he didn't keep. His Administration is riddled with corruption and now we find that he lied to us about what he knew and when he knew it about the rape, torture and murder our our Ambassador to Libya.

    The perfect storm is going to sink Obama's ship on Nov. 6th.