Gallup poll shows Romney up 6; too large a gap for Obama comeback?

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  • davidctr ,
    Oct. 18, 2012 10:25 p.m.

    "Because Gallup’s polls usually take large sample sizes, statistical variance alone probably cannot account these sorts of shifts. It seems to be an endemic issue with their methodology.

    To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.

    The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around." NYTimes By NATE SILVER

  • SG in SLC Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 5:43 p.m.

    As several have said, tracking polls really aren't relevant to the masses, though they make for interesting reading and they fuel discussions like the one in this comment thread.

    On the other hand, tracking polls (albeit much more detailed ones than we ever see) mean a lot to the candidates, mostly because give the candidates (actually, their campaign management) information to help them shape their campaign strategy going forward.

    I predict that this "horse race" will end up going right down to the wire, and the eventual winner will be the one whose campaign most effectively allocates their "ground" and "air" game resources in the swing states to get the biggest bang (based on the polling data), thereby shifting the electoral math in their favor.

    Just my $0.02 . . .

  • peacemaker Provo, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 3:20 p.m.

    And here it is: A Government Of Obama, By Obama and For Obama What happened to the people?

  • worf Mcallen, TX
    Oct. 18, 2012 10:28 a.m.

    Salsa Libre,

    You're joking, aren't you? Truth is truth. Water freezes at thirty two degrees no matter what side you're on.

    Obama either increased North American oil production, or he didn't. He's either responsible for oil pipe line capable of circling the world, or not. He either knows about fast & furious, or doesn't. Terrorist, or video. Cutting the deficit in half, and lowering unemployment to 5.2%, was not the truth or opinion. No matter what side you're on. This is informative, not insulting.

  • A Guy With A Brain Enid, OK
    Oct. 18, 2012 8:32 a.m.

    Yeah, let's look at that second debate. From 2 snapshot polls (CNN and CBS) on their debate performance immediately after it ended:

    CNN poll, Romney:
    - led by 18% (58% to 40%) among registered voters on the economy
    - led by 3% (49% to 46%) on healthcare
    - led by 7% (51% to 44%) on tax issues
    - led by 23% (59% to 36%) on solving the national deficit/debt
    - led by 3% (49% to 46%) on overall leadership ability
    - led by 11% (49% to 38%) on who has a "clear plan to solve the country's problems"

    Obama's only lead was +2 on foreign policy (49% to 47%)

    CBS poll, Romney:
    - led by a whopping 31% (65% to 34%) on issues pertaining to the economy

    Did Obama speak smoothly and passionately during the debate? Yes, he did. However, it was Romney who is REALLY connecting to voters on the issues that matter.

    With 25 MILLION people either out of work (12+Million) or working only part time (13 Million), gas prices skyrocketing, home energy costs going sky high, food prices way up and no REAL plan to fix things, get ready to say "President Romney".

    Romney, and simple common sense, 2012

  • Terry Sandy, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 2:11 a.m.

    Past history show the majority of those polls always lean democrats and the actual data today shows a huge oversampling of democrats for any poll that still shows it close or with Obama leading slightly. Gallup is known as one of the most accurate and unbiased polls! The last time Bush won all those other polls had him losing in a landslide as many of the left slanted poll agencies try to affect the outcome of the vote making you think the conservative candidate is going to lose big so don't even go out and vote, or in this case that the liberal candidate is really so close (when he is not) in hopes that more of their party will get out and vote to try to make up the difference in a close race that really is not that close. 4 more years of the same? 6 trillion in deficits (Greece here we come!) We have less jobs today than when he took office, fast and furious scandals hidden by executive order, Libyan embassy scandal about the true cause of that terrorist attack for 2 weeks to cover his horrible lack of security when more had been requested!

  • paperboy111 Lindon, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 12:56 a.m.

    Yup, the election is over. Romney won. Right.

  • Viva la Migra American Fork, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 12:42 a.m.

    I'm not sure how much stock to put into the polls. My relatives in Colorado receive 1 to 2 calls every single night from pollsters wanting them to answer questions about who they support and why. They participated in a few at first, but are now tired of the nightly interruptions and just hang up when a pollster is on the phone.

  • Ali'ikai 'A'amakualenalena Provo, UT
    Oct. 18, 2012 12:32 a.m.


    Cache county, USA

    "Lds liberal.
    Would you be happier living in Oregon rather than Utah?
    I mean, your liberal by screen name.
    Seems to me you would hate Utah."

    Ah, regional conflict! Don't you love it? Utah and Oregon. What a choice. Oregon - Home of Liberals. Utah - Home of Conservatives. Or is that just an assumption? Remember, Utah does not vote 100% Republican. Sure, it's a conservative place. Rather entrenched, if you mind my saying. But there are attractive things in Utah just as there are in Oregon.

    Have you ever been to Oregon. Beautiful. And a coastline to envy. Not like California. Not like Florida. But wonderful.

    Then there is Portland. And you're next door to Washington, another beautiful state will lots to offer.

    Finally, there's Hawai'i. The jewel. God's gem. It makes Utah a backwater with its snow and cold and desert.

    Peace, brotha

    Mahalo nui loa. A hui hou kakou.

  • BCA Murrieta, CA
    Oct. 18, 2012 12:01 a.m.

    I have never read a newspaper more in favor of a political candidate. I don't live in Utah but I am amazed by what is obviously a newspaper playing the part of a cheerleader. I am sure it is no coincidence that Romney is Mormon and the paper is church-owned. One poll means nothing.

  • Newspaper Reader Highland, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 11:40 p.m.

    Spring Street,

    Actually, the Gallup Poll does state that Romney is up by 6 points, not the 4 that you suggest the Gallup Poll actually stated. The DN is indeed correct.

  • Tekakaromatagi Dammam, Saudi Arabia
    Oct. 17, 2012 11:30 p.m.

    I like the idea of the electoral college. It gives small states some clout. That is a good idea. But with all this emphasis on swing states, the small states are still getting left out. If you live in Utah, have you ever seen an ad for a presidential election on TV?

    If we got rid of the electoral college it would drive the superpacs nuts. They would have to advertise everywhere rather than concentrating in just a couple of places.

  • Salsa Libre Provo, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 10:37 p.m.

    worf Mcallen, TX

    The problem with current partisan politics where it all appears to be strictly split down the middle, you keep insulting 50% of the American people. That means that for every comment you or another conservative makes, there is someone on the opposite side of the political divide who disagrees with you.

    Your Perry Mason analogy was interesting until you started talking about "truth". Remember, your partisan "truth" is not shared by those on the opposite side. They also have their "truth". With the way things are, this is insolvable unless you really want to sit down and have a discussion with all the fact set out in front. Sourcing the right-wing noise machine, the Romney campaign, and wingnut talking heads does nothing for this 50%.

    Questioning Obama's truthfulness is fine. However, there is much to question about Romney's truthfulness. I guess the election is the only way to decide the issue. But remember, you're not in the majority.

  • worf Mcallen, TX
    Oct. 17, 2012 10:02 p.m.

    I once knew a person who loved watching Perry Mason. This person didn't know what the story was about, but enjoyed how Perry would close the case with good rhetoric.
    The same with politicians. Most people judge a debate by how aggressive the candidates talk, but with little understanding of what's going on in the country.

    I guess that's why some people feel Obama won the debate. Except Perry Mason spoke the truth.

  • SS MiddleofNowhere, Utah
    Oct. 17, 2012 9:58 p.m.

    For all of you getting all worked up about polls or even the electoral votes, which are no more than polls at this point, know that polls are simply a drop in a very big bucket of the actual amount of voters and are not a very good indication of anything that will happen in November. Quit bickering about irrelevant statistics. They simply don't matter.

  • Tigerpride ,
    Oct. 17, 2012 9:44 p.m.

    While this poll is good news for Romney, it is best to remain cautiously optimistic. Polls are regularly wrong. The real question is how many voters will Obama bleed between now and election day. His policies haven't done him any favors, and he won't end up with 53% of the vote this time around. But can he keep hold of enough to get him past November? That remains to be seen.

  • Serenity Manti, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 9:12 p.m.

    @Hutterite: With all the things Obama has done to this country, like Useless bailouts, not keeping promises about bringing the economy back to health after the democratic congress under Bush crashed it, not fixing the housing market, not fixing unemployment and etc etc at infinitum, how can you hope he has a second term? Upon what do you base your comment? Makes no sense. All he did as president was increase his net worthby $10,000,000 while denegrading the rich (except himself) and saying they should share the wealth. Do you think he will share his wealth? I think not. He has trashed our country's credit rating, and the national debt is astronomical. He spend extreme money on companies, not from the United States who were supposed to have green energy. They failed. Why in the world would you want four more years of the same? Are you just an old Democrat who won't switch party lines no matter what?

  • Hemlock Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 9:09 p.m.

    If spin doctors can fix the problem, Obama will win.

  • rapaz11 Sitka, AK
    Oct. 17, 2012 8:39 p.m.

    What is it exactly, DN, that Obama has to come back from? Do you not recall that President Bush one the election over Gore while losing the popular vote? Is this supposed to be a real news story or something to fire up the base?

  • JWB Kaysville, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 7:49 p.m.

    Polls are not the final numbers as everyone knows and with the electoral votes based on polls is no better than polls. The people that say they are undecided either at the town hall meeting or at the University of Utah, as students, are probably not undecided at this late stage. A few debates showing the two running for President in the next four years is not going to make a difference for most of them. Some of the questions of the quote-unquote people last night were not indicating to me that they were undecided. Sort of like the moderator who is supposed to be an unbiased journalist with those type of standards definitely appeared to be tilted toward Obama in how she handled the process.

    CNN and PBS are definitely not middle of the road organizations, especially since PBS is linked to federal funding to run its operations. She was quick to protect the President and that is not what she is supposed to do. The President didn't want to have to answer anything on Libya and she handed his response on a silver or golden platter.

    I am satisfied with Gallup, more professional pollster than newsmedia.

  • Aggielove Cache county, USA
    Oct. 17, 2012 7:19 p.m.

    Lds liberal.
    Would you be happier living in Oregon rather than Utah?
    I mean, your liberal by screen name.
    Seems to me you would hate Utah.

  • HaHaHaHa Othello, WA
    Oct. 17, 2012 6:49 p.m.

    If Romney were a democrat, they would be using language like "landslide" to describe this lead. I don't like to count chickens before they hatch, so to speak, but Obama better bust out the November surprise here in October, because it may be too late by November! With one more debate left to go, maybe he better call it in sick, because he drops 4 percentage points after each of them. If he keeps it up, this could get ugly by 11/6. I'm sure he will carry at least one more state then his own Illinois, but it's starting to look bad for him. He is looking as pathetic as desperate as Walter Mondale and Al Gore, the worst "almost" Presidents we ever had!

  • Ying Fah Provo, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 6:18 p.m.

    Counter Intelligence
    Salt Lake City, UT

    "We can only hope (and vote)"

    What excitement! Romney must be up by 75% with "undecided" Utah voters. Is there a "Utah undecided voter"? With a state which votes very heavily Republican for the last 50 years, having undecided voters is a bit of an oxymoron.

  • Salsero Provo, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 6:09 p.m.

    Salt Lake City, UT
    "Voter Fraud will give it to Obama."

    If you don't succeed . . . blame the other guy!

    Of course, it doesn't say much to add: There has not been one shred of evidence that voter fraud has ever been made. Many of the people supporting voter suppression legislation say they support it because they believe voter fraud may sometime be introduced into the voting system.

    If elephants could fly . . .

  • boxerdog915 Clearfield, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 6:08 p.m.

    These polls don't mean anything. Don't pay attention to them.

  • KJB1 Eugene, OR
    Oct. 17, 2012 6:06 p.m.

    That Gallup poll may look great, but look at the crosstabs of how it's broken down:

    East: Obama +4
    Midwest: Obama +4
    West: Obama +6
    South: Romney +22

    Basically, what that means is that Romney has a massive lead in states like Mississippi, Arkansas, and Texas, which were never going to vote for Obama and which he doesn't need to win. The only Southern swing states are Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, and Obama could lose all three and still easily reach 270 electoral votes. If Romney were really 6 points ahead, the state-by-state polling would look massively different (Even today's Rasmussen has Obama up by three in the swing states) and Republicans would be sending manpower and funds to states like Minnesota, Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Needless to say, they aren't.

    There's going to be all kinds of crazy polling (one even has Obama up by 2 in Arizona), and this is one of them. Look at the EC map; Obama still has the advantage (And we haven't even seen last night's debate show up yet...)

  • donquixote84721 Cedar City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:58 p.m.

    I agree with at1134, the polls mean nothing, all Obama needs is for Romney voters to feel their vote is not needed. Every Patriotic American needs to stand up, speak out and vote to defend The Constitution of the United States of America.

  • BYUalum South Jordan, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:53 p.m.

    Romney-Ryan 2012 by a landslide. Inside the privacy of the voter's booth, common sense will come forth and the American voters in the majority will do the right thing if they believe in the future of this country. We only have one clear choice and actually only one chance to get this right or this country is doomed. Four more years of the nightmare we have all lived through the past four? NO!

    God bless America!

  • kishkumen American Fork, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:50 p.m.

    Hopefully, everyone who reads the Deseret News reads other new sources as well. The DN's pro-Romney bias is so extreme that if you only rely on their paper then you are going to get an inaccurate picture. Romney has made a lot of progress during the last few weeks, and could pull off a win, but odds are still against him.

  • Conner Johnson
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:47 p.m.

    Obama has this one in the bag ya'll!

  • Meadow Lark Mark IDAHO FALLS, ID
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:37 p.m.

    I trust Mitt Romney much more concerning the economy. He will do a much better job. We need smaller federal government and lower taxes. We need Mitt Romney as President!!

  • brobrigham Bountiful, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:29 p.m.

    National polls don't matter. In all probability, it will all come down to what Ohio voters think. If Romney goes up by 6 there, I'll then become interested.

  • spring street SALT LAKE CITY, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:27 p.m.

    So I just went and read the actual poll and low and behold once again the DN gets it blatantly wrong. Romney is actually up by four not 6 and the margin of error is 3. while interesting hardly the commanding lead (especially given other polls results) that the article writer would make it out to be.

  • phillyfanatic LONG BEACH, CA
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:23 p.m.

    These polls do not count anyhow. On the ground counts, turnout counts, no apathy counts. Come out in droves, over broken glass to vote out every Dem , Obama and liberalism. For liberalism is the real enemy that has made this nation: Greece and put us in danger domestically and internationally.

  • amythann North Salt Lake, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 5:03 p.m.

    Unfortunately, the popular vote does not determine who is elected President. Please remind us of the probable electoral votes.

  • DSB Cedar Hills, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 4:42 p.m.

    How does Romney win on nearly all individual issues, yet lose the debate? The only way is that Obama was about 1000 times better than he was in the first debate. So, it looks like he won the debate just based on his own glaring performance improvement. I suspect that if Obama had shown up and even tied Romney in the first debate, it's very possible that the second debate would be perceived as a tie, if not a victory for Romney.

    1000 times zero is still... zero, and Obama has no vision or plan for growth. All he has is the demonization of Romney. He counts on gullible people believing a lot of distortions and outright lies. Unfortunately, there are a lot of those people.

  • Hutterite American Fork, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 4:32 p.m.

    We need President Obama to win. Unless the future holds some sort of scrap in or with Iran. Then WiMiRo can have it.

  • patriot Cedar Hills, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 3:35 p.m.

    I'm not sure what it means to be untruthful during the debate on issue after issue and then be called the winner? The winner of what? Obama was untruthful about the oil and gas lease cancellations on federal land and he did not tell the truth about the embassy mess. I really doubt this CNN poll has much credibility since anyone who hasn't been living on Mars for the past month knows the ugly mess regarding the Embassy attack and coverup especially since the congressional inquiry is still on going.This last debate didn't move the needle at all for undecided voters - if anything it moved in Mitt's direction since he clearly won the economy portion.

  • CHS 85 Sandy, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 3:35 p.m.

    Wow. I didn't know we elected presidents by popular vote.


    "Voter Fraud will give it to Obama."

    Care to cite some examples of how that will happen?

  • Liberal Ted Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 3:30 p.m.

    If polls don't mean or show anything, then why is the media and this barrys regime spending soo much time airing the numbers?

    We know how much numbers can be fudged. Just look at how unemployment has dropped in the last two months. As barry would say the math doesn't add up. When the number of jobs created grow at a slower pace than population growth, you're not getting ahead.

    Maybe barry's thought is the same with the debt. The more debt you accumulate the better off you are. But then again the man said he doesn't even look at his finances because a net worth of $11 million isn't worth keeping an eye on.

    Then again when your base is mostly clueless, welfare dependents you don't have to worry about tough questions. You just need to drink a beer with them, tell them jokes and smile, and say everything is alright as he squeezes the remaining life out of the nation.

    That is change alright. Just the wrong kind.

  • Riverton Cougar Riverton, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 3:22 p.m.

    I know not to fully trust polls, but one can only hope for the sake of this great nation that this poll is indicative of what Election Day will be.

  • Joe Moe Logan, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 3:12 p.m.


    "In two minutes, let's freak out about the Gallup Tracker that includes basically no post-debate data," Slate's Dave Weigel tweeted.

    It's a statistical tie, anyway. The only good these number games are doing is to give pollsters, statisticians, and pundits a paycheck.

  • Red Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 3:10 p.m.

    Voter Fraud will give it to Obama.

  • Fitness Freak Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 2:33 p.m.

    The "polls" are paid for by the media who wish to disseminate their information. Up until a week ago they pretty much "polled" in favor of Obama. After the poor debate performances by the administration in both the first presidential debate and the v.p. debate they could see that they would need to change their "polling" numbers to reflect reality or lose what little credibility they had left or no one would believe them much.

    Did you know: 91% of people called - hang up? So, in order to get 900 responses they (theoretically) call 10k people? Much of how they "weight" the responses are proprietary, (much like Google)but we do know that they extrapolate (guess)based on past elections. They have mostly been using data from the 2008 election rather than the 2010 election which, obviously, would be "weighted" towards Demo. victories.

    I'm a Romney supporter, but I still don't trust the "polls" much - until the day after the election.

  • atl134 Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 2:31 p.m.

    I messed up the order there, Obama leads in Virginia (by 0.8%) so that should go before Colorado on my list. Point is, he can lose two states he current leads in (NH and VA) and a state he trails by less than a point in (CO) and still win the election so any declarations of Romney winning are definitely premature. (That's not to say Obama will win, I think Obama is only a narrow favorite to win, just anyone declaring victory right now is being ridiculous).

  • LDS Liberal Farmington, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 2:21 p.m.

    Watching Polls is like driving down the Freeway looking in the rear view mirror - they only tell you about what's behind you [last week's news], not what's current or right in front of you.

    Meanwhile - Here's the ONLY poll that matters:

    Obama = 294
    Romney = 254

    270 Electoral College votes needed to win.

  • Rifleman Salt Lake City, Utah
    Oct. 17, 2012 2:19 p.m.

    Gallup got into trouble earlier with the Obama Administration for releasing another unfavorable poll about this race. The liberals should have listened to Democratic strategist James Carville last year when he had just one word of advice for President Barack Obama: Panic.

  • Counter Intelligence Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 2:18 p.m.

    We can only hope (and vote)

  • atl134 Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 2:16 p.m.

    Absolutely not too large. Rasmussen has Romney up only 1. IDP/TIPP has Obama up 2. Gallup is a pretty large outlier right now and none of any of these polls are based on respondents after this second debate which kinda matters since all polls say Obama won that debate. The Real Clear Politics average of polls (which includes Gallup) has Romney up 0.7 points. It wasn't too large for a Romney comeback when Obama led nationally by 4 so a 1 point Romney lead sure isn't too large for an Obama comeback.

    Plus it's the electoral vote that counts and at the moment Obama leads in the RCP average 201-191.
    Tossups listed in order of Obama's lead/trail are Pennsylvania (O+5.0), Michigan (O+4.4), Nevada (O+3.0), Iowa (O+2.3), Ohio (O+2.2), Wisconsin (O+2.0), New Hampshire (O+0.8), Colorado (R+0.7), Virginia (O+0.8), Florida (R+2.5), North Carolina (R+4.7).

    So down the list. Obama has 201. +PA 221. +MI 237. +NV 243. +IA 249. +OH 267. +WI 277 and the win. All states Obama's up 2+.

  • Liberal Ted Salt Lake City, UT
    Oct. 17, 2012 2:11 p.m.

    Let's hope that is a big enough gap for real change to happen:)