Today's political polls measure little of substance

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  • atl134 Salt Lake City, UT
    Nov. 7, 2012 12:01 p.m.

    I guess the writer never checks weather forecasts since there's uncertainty there...

    Anyway, Silver was 49/50 last presidential election, and appears to be 50/50 this cycle. You can say he's not doing much, but he sure beat the heck out of all those silly pundits and especially that funny "unskewed polls" site that had projected a Romney win.

  • UtahBlueDevil Durham, NC
    Nov. 7, 2012 10:38 a.m.

    What we did find out is that Rasmussen polls did over state Romney's position by cherry pickeing "likely" voters. That whole process of trying to figure out who will and will not vote is nearly impossible. This time Rasmussen was off by 3%. In the real world, not that much... but they boast so much of their superior modelling, it is good to see them brought back down to earth.

    Just my opinion.... it is accurate plus/minus 50% of the time.

  • Wonder Provo, UT
    Nov. 7, 2012 9:57 a.m.

    Well, oops! I guess Nate Silver is not such an idiot after all.

  • Henry Drummond San Jose, CA
    Nov. 6, 2012 1:31 p.m.

    Maybe Nate Silver would be better served by handicapping horse races. My guess is that Obama will win, but how can you put a number on just "how sure" you are. Voters still have to turn out and you never know exactly what they'll do.

  • The Skeptical Chymist SALT LAKE CITY, UT
    Nov. 6, 2012 12:57 p.m.

    Methinks Michael Gerson doth protest too much. Time will tell if Nate Silver's careful analysis of the polls is valid. Provided that the Republicans are unsuccessful in their despicable efforts to suppress votes, I suspect he will be proven correct. We'll know before long now.

  • Roland Kayser Cottonwood Heights, UT
    Nov. 6, 2012 9:05 a.m.

    WE all want to know who won the election before the election happens. Also, we all look for confirmation that our guy is ahead. Pollsters are free to do what they want, but I think polling has gotten a little out of hand.

  • no fit in SG St.George, Utah
    Nov. 6, 2012 7:53 a.m.

    Nate Silver is a product of a great Mathematics education.
    Imagine what could happen if Nate is correct, and Obama is the winner of the 2012 Election!
    Math teachers will finally receive their due, and an exciting old career may become new and exciting to those who have chosen to pursue teaching for their college education.

  • KJB1 Eugene, OR
    Nov. 6, 2012 7:50 a.m.

    I'm guessing that Gershon would be singing a different tune if Nate Silver had shown Romney with the advantage.