Utah Jazz: Big Al says turnaround will take hard work

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  • BillM75 Salt Lake City, UT
    April 15, 2011 9:06 p.m.

    Wow, I used the name of a search engine in my long reply pointing out the flaws in WP48 and the comment was denied.

    OK, WP48 is deeply flawed on the individual level, all you need to do is see it ranks Love far higher than Howard and LeBron. Do your own, um, research, I guess, it's all out there.

    Boozer ranked very high in WP48 when he was with the Jazz. The inventor of WP48 wrote a long article saying CP3 was much better than DWrist.

    Cumulative stats like WP48, adjusted +/- and PER have to pass the eye test; in every other one Love is well below Howard and LeBron. Millsap is by far the Jazz' highest ranked player in adjusted +/-. We all agree the Jazz have to add more talent.

  • Bugoff Houston, TX
    April 15, 2011 5:37 p.m.

    WP48 only captures the information that the box scores capture. It is a very good formula but it does not adequately capture defense, hustle nor the ability to make the players around you better.

    The science behind WP48 on the team level is very sound. Applied on the individual player level it needs to be used with judgement as the WP48 of individual players can fluctuate a lot as them move from one team to another.

    The Jazz have to max the team WP48 and it needs to start with the wings. I hope AK stays. I hope Hayward develops and Harris returns to top form.

    The Jazz need a starter at SG who gets a WP48 of 15 (techically measured as .15) or higher. They really need 2-3 wings in that range and they need Harris in that range. AK (17)is 1 wing. Hayward could be another.

    If the Jazz get enough WP48 in the wings. AJ will shoot fewer wheezies and his shooting percentage and efficiency will improve. The TOs will go down.

    The front court is weak on rebounding (another WP48 weakness). Harris has to run the team better and improve his shot selection.

  • Bugoff Houston, TX
    April 15, 2011 5:21 p.m.

    A lot of people do not like WP48 as an individual player metric. It tends to move around a lot depending on injury and the role a particular player has with a team.

    For instance Brewer is at 20+ with the Bulls while he was about 1/2 that with the Jazz. His role is different with the Bulls. Boozer is at about 16 with the Bull but he has been hurt and his role is different. He was 25-32 when he was with the Jazz and the entire offense ran thru him. He can't steal rebounds off of Noah and Boozer is just a PF not THE offense for the Bulls.

    WP48 applied on the TEAM level is very accurate as it captures what a team needs to do to win.

    The Jazz have chemistry issues to work out. But they also have to add players who have had or will have high WP48s.

    You can't trade talent and replace that talent with less and expect to win.

    The Sloan system broke down this year. It stopped working.

    The biggest problem was a lack of outside shooting. AJ's tenency to stop the flow was another.

  • King Black Paso Robles, CA
    April 15, 2011 12:06 p.m.

    Well Bugoff this is a good formula you are using from Dave Berii it seems that this Berii guy is pretty smart to create this formula as he still rights articles on as do plenty of other analysts do, though it seems that WP48 is the best to use over PER and +/- efficiency. I do wish that WP48 counted in hustle plays

  • Captain L Provo, UT
    April 15, 2011 9:53 a.m.

    Bugoff: Keep up the good work.

  • Bugoff Houston, TX
    April 15, 2011 9:07 a.m.

    Here are the WP48 numbers for MVP candidates (converted to whole numbers and rounded).

    Love 46
    Howard 40
    James 36
    Paul 35
    Wade 30

    6th Man
    Humphries 33
    Odom 25
    Gortat 23
    Monroe 19
    Ibaka 18

    Griffin 24
    Fields 26
    Monroe 19
    Wall 11
    Davis 17

    AJ played much better as the year progressed. Millsap had a down year. Favors will steadily improve. Hayward is improving. Harris should improve back to his average of 10-15. However, AK may be gone and that is a big loss in WP48 for the Jazz.

    The right 2 draft picks could contribute a lot to next years team WP48. If the guard play improves, the efficiency of AJ, Millsap and Favors should also improve. The paint will unpack, they will have more room and efficiency. The TOs will drop and the rebounding and shooting will improve.

    The Jazz win when the get enough outside shooting.

    ALL teams contend when they get enough team WP48. This years playoffs are much more competitive that most think. There does not appear to be a dominant team based on team wp48. The championship will depend on match ups and defense.

  • Bugoff Houston, TX
    April 15, 2011 8:52 a.m.

    Normally the best teams in the league have a collective WP48 of about 150+.

    However, this year the best teams in the West and the East are at about 130+. This is based on the WP48 of the players who get the most minutes. They are the ones who play in the playoffs.

    The Jazz are currently at about 102 in collective WP48 but 26 of those points are by Evans who plays limited minutes.

    The Jazz have big trouble at Guard. CJ is about a 2 and Bell is a 0 in WP48. Hayward is a 4 and Harris is a 3 for the year with the Jazz. Hayward has played much better in the last few games. Watson is an 8 (definite rehire). Weaver is a 2. Okur, Elson, Fes and Price are negatives.

    AK (17), Millsap (15) and AJ (14) lead the team among the players getting minutes.

    The team is not efficient and not playing well together. That should change but there has to be a lot of improvement from existing players and the addition of 3 more good players.

    The Jazz have a long way to go.

  • Bugoff Houston, TX
    April 15, 2011 8:23 a.m.

    Big AL is a very good player and the last 1/2 of the season his efficiency and WP48 improved a lot. He should continue to improve but he is no where near the WP48 that Boozer produced.

    However, AJ replaced Okur and not Boozer. AJ at C has a much better WP48 and should continue to play C.

    Millsap did not consistently replace Boozer's WP48. Favors probably will but it will take a year or more.

    Harris replaced DWill and that also dropped the team WP48. The Jazz have lost their 2 top WP48 players (measures talent, efficiency and team role).

    The Jazz are built on efficiency. They did not have that this year. If AK leaves the Jazz will have lost their top 3 WP48 players and replaced them with lower WP48 players.

    For the Jazz to contend they have to have a team WP48 of 150-165. They are currently far below 100. Part of that is a lack of playing time together. Part of it is a lack of efficiency.

    AJ was a step in the right direction. Favors has to replace Boozer. AK provides about 20 of the 150 team WP48.