Utah Jazz to pick 9th in NBA draft

Jazz arent biggest losers; Wizards are biggest winners

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  • byronbca
    May 24, 2010 9:12 p.m.

    re utes13-0

    Tomic is progressing very well, he's put on 20 pounds and he's 1 of 5 players up for the top European league's version of rookie of the year, and he could come over as soon as 2011, but personally I think it's more likely he'll come over in 2012 because his buyout would be $7 million. If he were in next year's draft he would be a late lottery pick for sure.

    The other guy (T.D.) will never come over but you can think of him as trading glue so he still has some value.

  • utes13-0
    May 22, 2010 1:43 p.m.

    I agree Captain L. This is how I would do it. #1 trade for Cousins, #2- draft Udoh if available #3- draft Monroe if available #4- draft Ed Davis #5- trade down and take either Whiteside, Sanders, Orton.

    Anyone know how Tomic and the guy from Serbia are doing? What happened to our future first round pick from Dallas when we gave them our #19 pick? Also, explain to me the Memphis pick we received for Brewer. Is it lottery protected?

  • Captain L
    May 21, 2010 8:26 p.m.

    The more I have looked at Larry Sanders the more I like what I see. He has a good attitude, works hard, 7'5.75" wing span (great), 6 10.5 in shoes, huge hands, 11" hand width, needs to gain weight.
    Uhoh has relatively small hands 8.75, but he has a very good wing span 7'4.5", 6'9.75" height,(in shoes), blocks shots better than Sanders, 3.7 (Udoh), 2.5 (Sanders). Udoh handles the ball very well for his height, not sure how Sanders handles the ball.
    Aldrich 6'9 bare foot, long arms however (7'4.75"), 9.25" hands, only 236 lbs, not very heavy for a center, repeating my self, I think we have two 7' centers and drafting Aldrich would be giving up on at least one of them.
    With Monroe, Udoh, Sanders, Davis, Whiteside (7'7" wing) there are to many PF type(excluding Whiteside) to draft Aldrich.
    It will be interesting to see who the Jazz bring in and how they show.
    Hopefully, their agents won't advise them to have individual work outs only. I would like to see them play against each other.

  • Bugoff
    May 20, 2010 4:38 p.m.

    @ JaPacMac I am doing the Miller metric from memory. DN or SLT published it a year or two ago.

    This is the simplest version of the win score formula. There are other adjusted versions but this one can be computed directly from each games box score. It measures basic fundamental behaviors that cause 95% of wins. It is very accurate on the team level and pretty good on the player level.

    It is similar to the Miller Metric but the weights (betas) are derived by regression and therefor accurate. The Miller Metric has weights derived by rule of thumb.

    Basic Win Score formula

    Points + Rebounds + Steals + Assists + Blocked Shots — Field Goal Attempts — Turnovers — Free Throw Attempts — Personal Fouls

    Points, etc have a weight of 1 (beta of 1) while assists etc have a weight of .5.

    These are linear approximations that will get you very close to predicting +/- 2 total wins over a season of 82 games.

    Based on my preliminary research with adjustments it can also be used to predict playoff match ups.

    However, I am still refining that last part.

    DAL uses the proprietary WINVAL formula. Some NBA teams use metrics extensively. Some don't.

  • Bohonker
    May 20, 2010 4:16 p.m.

    Re: toddfromsantaana

    I've said it before and I'll say it again....you live in your own little world.

  • blauch
    May 20, 2010 10:14 a.m.

    Jazz Smack

    I too think the Jazz should move up to get Cousins if possible. I think he has Stoudemire Athletic ability with more of a Boozer strength. But if he is not available to move up to.

    Right Now they have Sac taking him at 5. I would trade the 9 and the Memphis pick for him - unless Sac love Cousins.

    Then they need to take who ever left out of Aldrich, Monroe, Aminu, and Udoh. Like I said - take 3rd Tier before reaching on some prospect.

    The best example is Sene
    Scouts kept saying that he was a big project (did have a 7'8 wing span - huge upside. Ford had him at the 30 best prospect. Huge Reach at 10 - with maybe a 10% chance of panning out.

    Seattle passed the following players because they wanted to swing for the fences


    I know there were only 2 star - Rondo and Millsap, but I rather have player who can play than a 10% chance of hitting a home run

  • JePaMac
    May 20, 2010 10:13 a.m.


    Have you posted the methodology for the WP48 score? Do you have the methodology for Miller's evaluation model?

  • Bugoff
    May 20, 2010 6:25 a.m.

    Note Boozer's big drop in WP48 from the regular season to the playoffs may have something to do with playing C.

    Millsap only played PF and his numbers jumped. He fared better against LA but he was playing PF.

    Keeping Booz to play C is paying blood to play him to play out of position and get about 2/3 of his potential.

    It is far cheaper to go get Haywood who had a very good playoff WP48 at .263 right below Bynum and right above Camby.

    Haywood should get serious consideration if the Jazz can figure out how to get him.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 11:05 p.m.

    Here are the wins scores for the 2010 playoffs for the Jazz players who played most of the time.

    Millsap .272
    DWill .224
    Booz .182
    AK .130
    Korver -.014
    CJ -.054
    Price -.099
    Fes -.193

    Koufos was -.139 but had limited minutes. Gaines had the highest PG score in the NBA but played a handful of minutes. OJ was really bad but only played 7 minutes.

    A minus wp48 means you are hurting the team and making a negative contribution.

    Boozer played 63% of his time at C and the rest at PF. Millsap was more productive over the 8 games.

    Fes has a very long way to go. However, there were 7 Cs worse than him in the playoffs. O'Neal, Collins, Miller, Mahinmi, Ratliff, Magloire, and Mullens.

    Millsap was the 3rd best PF in the NBA (among true PF with primary minutes) behind Gasol and Nowitzki.

    Ty Thomas played well but had only 68 minutes. The Jazz may want to find a way to get him.

    That is a pretty good indication that Paul can step up when needed.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 9:21 p.m.

    The wins score formula is very similar to the Jazz player evaluation model that Larry developed years ago but which the organization does not appear to use or follow.

    The Jazz evaluation model has the wrong weights on various basketball behaviors but it has most of the right variables.

    If the Jazz followed it or better yet use the correctly weighted win score system they would not be making the mistakes they have made in the past.

    Organizations, particularly old school organizations rely too heavily on observation. They fail to realize that there are perceptual biases that tend to lead managers to make the wrong decisions based on observation alone.

    You need both quantitative analysis and observation to get a better understanding.

    It is like getting a different camera angle of a super model. She is the same reality but looks very different from different camera angles. You need different camera angles to get closer to reality and not deceive yourself with your own perceptual biases.

    To much of the decision making has been ad hoc and flown by the seat of the pants.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 8:48 p.m.

    To answer a previous question about winning with a PG. Remember that the Jazz run a system that is PG dependent. DWill partly determines the win score (effectiveness) for the PF, the C and other positions.

    If he runs the team poorly, makes bad passes, bad decisions, runs the wrong plays, plays at the wrong pace, the win scores and the effectiveness of the other players (especially PF) will suffer.

    For the Jazz to win they need

    1. a great defense
    2. a great PG
    3. a great PF
    4. a very good C
    5. a good SF
    6. a decent SG
    7. enough outside shooting.

    The Sloan system as he runs it is biased in favor of the PG and PF but can be run thur the C (Okur with Booz hurt). It could also emphasize the SF and SG a lot more if he choose to tweak it.

    The current crisis may force the Jazz into correcting the mistakes of the past. It could also crash the team if they insist on making the same mistakes over again.

    They have known for years that Okur was in decline and a weak link. They resigned for more.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 8:37 p.m.

    I just ran the Eastern Conf for 2009 playoffs. The team with the higher team (my adjusted) WP score won except for the BOS/CHI game. There seems to be one match up in each conference where a good defensive team will beat a team with a higher win score.

    So far this model is predicting 12 out of 14 match ups right.

    If Greg will get the right players with high win scores and enough total win score on the team he will have a contender not a pretender.

    High win scores are not always expensive. Sometimes they are rebounding or defensive specialists more than scorers(which every body focuses on).

    DWill is absolutely right. Some pieces have to be added. Start with C and make sure the PF is a very high WP48. PG is already covered. SF is important and 3 point shooting/mid range jump shooting is needed to break the paint pack. Good D is a top priority.

    The Jazz should be able to get an above average C if they buy win scores instead of media pumped names with one of their exemptions.

    Fes/Kouf may develop? That would help.

  • Jazz Cop
    May 19, 2010 8:33 p.m.

    I was a little surprised the jazz didn't take afflalo a couple years ago, almond wasn't a smart pick, when you compare what the jazz do to some of the better drafting teams like suns, portland, spurs, these teams shame the jazz when it comes to the draft. the jazz have done about average, everything considered. these teams have draft philosphies, the jazz just pick almond not considering he doesn't want to play defense, humphries and snyder was a debacle, no doubt about it, what a wasted year at the draft. its time the jazz got a decent backup pg, there were plenty of opportunities, but dorgan gragivic, not even able to cut it in the adriatic league, i think the jazz must've thought they were picking goran dragic instead, oooooppppsss!!!

  • Jazz Cop
    May 19, 2010 8:23 p.m.

    No on has really said, but you want to know who the jazz will make a mistake if they don't draft orton, get morton with orton.

  • Jazzsmack
    May 19, 2010 7:52 p.m.

    RE: blauch

    What I think the Jazz should do?

    move up!

    An GET COusins,

    he is compared to moses malone,

    they say is a headcase,

    but said the same thing about karl malone,

    Everyone will be kicking themselves for NOT getting the ONLY legitimate star bigman in the the draft

    MOve up,

    I am thinking even trading dwill, and thier first rounder for him could very well be worth it,

    if my list indicates anything,
    there have been plenty of very good points guards to find in the draft over the years

    but not legitmate star bigmen.

    risk? maybe,

    but how many times have the lakers traded away their whole team to get a star bigman to build around, to win championships?

    wilt, kareem, shaq, gasol,

    if you are not lucky enough to draft one, you have get one some way or another.

    EVERY championship team has had one or more legitimate bigmen.

    (and don't bring up jordon, he had longley, a very skilled though under achieving big with kukoc, and grant and cartwright before that)

    Move up!

    you must have skilled, and atleast athletic, bigs.

    So MOVE UP!

  • ed
    May 19, 2010 7:42 p.m.


    Magic Johnson

  • Jazzsmack
    May 19, 2010 6:36 p.m.

    RE: blauch

    What I think the Jazz should do?

    move up!

    An GET COusins,

    he is compared to moses malone,

    they say is a headcase,

    but said the same thing about karl malone,

    Everyone will be kicking themselves for NOT getting the ONLY legitimate star bigman in the the draft

    MOve up,

    I am thinking even trading dwill, and thier first rounder for him could very well be worth it,

    if my list indicates anything,
    there have been plenty of very good points guards to find in the draft over the years

    but not legitmate star bigmen.

    risk? maybe,

    but how many times have the lakers traded away their whole team to get a star bigman to build around, to win championships?

    wilt, kareem, shaq, gasol,

    if you are not lucky enough to draft one, you have get one some way or another.

    EVERY championship team has had one or more legitimate bigmen.

    (and don't bring up jordon, he had longley, a very skilled though under achieving big with kukoc, and grant and cartwright before that)

    Move up!

    you must have skilled, and atleast athletic, bigs.

    So MOVE UP!

  • Jazzsmack
    May 19, 2010 6:01 p.m.

    RE: blauch

    I don't get paid to draft for the Jazz,

    that is supposed to be the job of the so-called experts the Jazz hired like oconnor and his team.

    The question should be why are they not doing a BETTER job,

    anyone can play safe,

    and have s nice safe mediocre team as a result.

    sometimes you need to take risks, expecially if you are drafting late in the draft.

    so far in the last decade only 3 1st rounders have stuck, maybe more risk taking would be in order.

    all my list shows, if thejazz has stayed where they were in the draft,

    even without dwill,

    you could still have avery good team, even a better one.

    playing it safe does have it's downside.

    but to answer your question, I have not had a chance to look at the draft, I usually do not do that until after all the predraft camps

    so Ican havethe best setof analysis and information available.

    For BIGmen, I am leaning towards motiejunas,
    but you never cantell with slavs

    udoh, no offensive game and old.
    whitside, longterm project, 6 years or more ifat all
    sanders may bethe sleeper

  • JePaMac
    May 19, 2010 5:32 p.m.

    I've got a serious question here. Can somebody tell me the last time a team won the championship when their best player was a PG?

    With the exception of Magic--an oddity--the only one I can find in the last 20 years is Chauncy Billups (03-04). Beyond that, MAYBE Isiah Thomas with the Bad Boys. That's all I can find.

    As long as Deron's our best player, will we win a championship? Just saying...

  • JePaMac
    May 19, 2010 5:05 p.m.

    Every time I look at Greg Monroe I think "perfect for the Jazz." The guy's got a handle, he's a phenomenal passer, he's got what seems to be a pretty deep jump shot, and he's smart. Sure, he's not the defensive presence we need (although he's probably better to guard the Lakers than Booz was), but I'd like to see the Jazz address that issue at the 5, with Haywood.

    I would love to see the Jazz make a run at Haywood and draft Monroe.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 4:44 p.m.

    I just ran a preliminary analysis using the regular season WP48 scores to predict the 2009 playoffs. I am not reporting all of the methods so do not bet your house as you do not know how to adjust the data.

    WPs for 2008-09
    LA 146
    HOU 131 with Ming, without Mutumbo (both injured).
    DEN 113
    POR 113
    SA 103
    UT 91
    NO 86

    First round
    LA > UT
    DAL > SA
    HOU > POR

    2nd Round
    LA > HOU
    DEN > DAL


    LA > DEN

    In all much ups except DAL > SA the team with the higher WP won.

    This is preliminary evidence that reg season team WP can predict how far a team will go in the playoffs.

    This still needs some refinement and a much larger sample size across years of data. I will probably publish this in some journal eventually.

    Remember, you do not know all of the right adjustments. And there are additional refinements I can make for better accuracy.

    If the Jazz want to win a championship, they have to put the WP48 into the team before the playoffs.

    Greg I hope you are listening. This can save you millions in player and salary mistakes.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 3:04 p.m.

    In the first PHO/LA game Stoudemire had 3 rebounds compared to Odom's 19.

    That pretty much tells you the first step to beating the Lakers. You have to out rebound them.

    If you can out rebound them then the second step is to effectively guard them inside.

    The Jazz are deficient in the front line. They can't defend LA well. The have trouble scoring against LA inside. They lack the outside shooting to bomb LA.

    Udoh or Monroe, maybe Monte would be a step in the right direction.

    I do not know (besides playing time) what can be done to speed up Fes/Koufos or if either will ever be good enough.

    The Jazz absolutely have to have a decent C before they can even think about beating LA.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 12:53 p.m.

    Sanders is a very good prospect. A PF/C is a greater need.

    A 60/40 success ratio out of the 9th pick is a historically good ratio. Drafting is a crap shoot. The Jazz are much better at finding players with a few years of experience who fit the system.

    They are also very good at finding flawed players in the 2nd round who have strengths that fit the system.

    Those players tend to still be flawed (too short, can't shoot) even after the Jazz try to fix the problems.

  • Morgan Duel
    May 19, 2010 12:32 p.m.

    "we hope that we hope we make the right choice." What the heck does that mean?

    Name one Draft pick in the first round since Karl or John other than Ak and D Will that has turned out to be great. You cannot.

    Sounds like the Jazz Scouts need to get off the "pot" and find another Wesley Matthews or Paul Millsap.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 12:21 p.m.

    There is one thing that is not being emphasized on this thread.

    The Jazz Defense is not good enough. BOS killed CLE and is now killing ORL with defense. Both CLE and ORL are great offensive teams.

    The Okur/Booz experiment was weak in defense and that mistake must not happen again.

  • BBSmith
    May 19, 2010 12:21 p.m.

    Look outside the box. Larry Sanders for VCU has a lot of upside if we cannot get Udoh. Sanders is a better offensive player and he is getting better every year on defense. If we miss out on Udoh Sanders is the next best option. He is the kind of player that you can tell him where to improve and he does. Every year at VCU his stats got better in every category.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 12:18 p.m.

    The Okur/Booz/AK experiment has become to expensive to continue. It was a good move at the start. It produce a playoff team fast and then produced several 4th/5th playoff type teams.

    It is time to intelligently move on to the next step. Okur has declined every year since 2006. We have seen Booz's best year. AK may go or resign for less.

    There is about 44-47 million tied up in those 3 players depending on if Booz is resigned. They are not capable of better than a mediocre playoff team. Their collective salaries strangle player development and getting decent role players.

    The Jazz have no choice but to move forward.

    Blauch has some excellent comments above. If the Jazz get one good player in this draft it will solve one problem. That still leave the MLE and the Harp exemptions and trades.

    The Jazz may not be able to fix all of the problems this next year but they should be able to make the playoff until the New CBA is in place.

    It may take 2 or more years to become a contender.

    Right now C/PF/SF are the biggest needs.

  • blauch
    May 19, 2010 11:43 a.m.

    This season draft tier are

    1st Tier
    Wall and Turner

    Second Tier
    Johnson athletic wing(some people have Aminu in this tier)
    Favors and Cousins - Both are athletic freaks

    Third Tier
    Aldrich, Monroe, Aminu, and Udoh
    That is the top 9 players in the draft. Take one of those nine and the Jazz will have done a good job.

    4th Tier
    Davis, Orten and Whitesides - None of them scored more than 13 points a games in college as the best player on their team. They are all going to take to develop in NBA, as will Favors and Cousins, but those 2 are superior athletically. You also have Babbit, Bradley in this tier.

    Bill Simmons talked about how the last player like Cousins was Josh Smith off the chart athlete. Now he might be a head case, but if he slips out of the top 5 picks the Jazz should do anything to trade up for him. Trade the ninth and next years draft pick to GS for the 6th pick and take him. They may even try that with Sac at the 5th pick.

  • blauch
    May 19, 2010 11:21 a.m.

    Bones I completely agree with you. All the KOC Haters out there never say this is who the Jazz should draft. He is not perfect, but he his a better than most.

    As Long as KOC doesn't drop a tier they are fine. And he doesn't do that anymore.

    Last year.
    Chad Ford ranked Griffin last year as the number 1 prospect and Rubio as number 2 prospect in the draft. Neither of them played last year.

    Ford Ranked 3-5 were Jennings, Evans and Curry (the next tier of players with Hardin)
    By the way they went 1, 2 and 3 in rookie of the year voting). Memphis passed on all three for a player they had to send to the Dleague (Thabeet), New York, Phili, New York all passed on at least one of these players.

    As long a GM does not make crazy reaches or drop a tier to get a player. Example skipping Josh Smith for Humphries, or Sheldon Williams over Roy and Gay and Sene over Rondo, Brewer, Redick. Or Corey Brewer over his teammate who was clearly better in Noah.

    KOC does that.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 11:16 a.m.

    The Jazz may want to look at Petro of DEN. I am not saying he is the answer. I am saying his is 7 ft and an FA who may play better in UTs structured offense than he does in DENs playground approach.

    He played really well against the Jazz in one or more playoff games. He seems to have the agility, size and some shooting touch. He seems to be able to rebound.

    He would be cheap insurance if Fes does not sign.

    The Jazz are much better at evaluating existing players who have some playing time than in drafting late in the 1st round.

    They need to seriously look for an emerging C who can play better in the Jazz system than in their current system.

    Amundson, Amir Johnson, Iam Mahinmi, Earl Barron, and Aaron Gray should be evaluated as inexpensive possibilities. I am sure most of them have major flaws but the Jazz are good at making these types of players better.

    All of the above have much better WP48 than Okur.

    Gray (C) and Johnson (PF) show some promise for reasonable.

    Are they better than Fes/Koufos in the long run?

  • Sokol
    May 19, 2010 10:50 a.m.

    I think the Deseret News or that sarcastic, sardonic bloak Monson, player by player pointed out that in the entire NBA, with the exception of Michael Jordan, KOC IS THE WORST DRAFT GM IN PRO BASKETBALL....If the Jazz get another slow, plodding, short haired, no offense to you anglo caucasion types, white guy, he KOC should be fired.

  • Spiff
    May 19, 2010 10:47 a.m.

    What "work in progress" will they draft this time????

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 10:33 a.m.

    It may be possible to trade Booz as long as he goes where HE wants for more money and years. That means a team has to want him very badly.

    Working a trade on Booz means taking bad contracts back (at least in part). That is probably not smart. Teams want expiring contracts because the create flexibility and erase mistakes. Letting Booz walk is not as bad as a lot think. Let's see what develops.

    I doubt ORL wants Booz.

    Right now I do not know of any player the Jazz could get for Booz who they would really want. Look at the rosters of NY, NJ, MIA etc.

    You might get Haslem but he is another undersized PF with 1/2 the WP48 of Boozer. That is a bad trade.

    If you want to gamble pick up Earl Barron for cheap at C/FC. You can trade him or Fes/Koufos later depending on which one (s) work out.

    The Jazz need a real traditional C who rebounds and scores inside/some jumpshots.

    They need a back up or developing PF and they need outside shooting.

    They can do this and for reasonable.

  • Bones
    May 19, 2010 10:22 a.m.

    I think one of the dumbest things I see on these comment boards is when people put a list of good players that the Jazz passed on in the draft. I hope you realize you could make an equally long if not longer list for every single team in the NBA. All your list proves is that those players were underrated by a large portion of teams. Look at the Jazz's drafting and rookie history for the past few years
    2005- Deron Williams (miraculously traded up from 6 to 3) and CJ Miles (2nd round so low risk, and is now coming into his own and giving solid rewards)
    2006- Ronnie Brewer and Paul Millsap (two of the top ten players from the draft without picking in the top ten... so Bravo KOC)
    2007- Morris Almond and some other dude nobody cares about... admittedly kind of a bust that year
    2008-Koufos and some random low risk 2nd rounders (decent for only having low picks)
    2009- Eric Maynor (very solid pick, enabled team to dump salary later and should have a decent career) picked up undrafted Wesley Matthews (do I need to say anything else about that)

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 10:17 a.m.

    Right now the Jazz are totally deficient at C. That is the primary reason they are not contenders. The C position is a defensive liability.

    The WP48 is dismal. Okur only averages 7 rebounds a game. That has to be 10 at least. The Jazz are weak in rebounding and most of the rebounding comes from short PFs.

    Most people think Okur's 3 point shooting is important as they remember his spectacular 3 point shots. Those are vivid memories that skew perceptions. He only makes 1.1 three point shots a game.

    He can't rebound at the 3 point line.

    It is a media myth that Okur pulls his man out to give Booz room and that helps Booz. Booz plays much better with a traditional C (like Fes).

    It is cheaper and better to add 3 point shooting at the SF/SG.

    The first step to a championship is a massive up grade at C. I do not see that player in this draft.

    The next major problem is PF. Neither Booz nor Millsap are the PF of the future. There are some PFs in this draft who are worth trying.

    Fix the front line. Winner.

  • blauch
    May 19, 2010 10:10 a.m.

    Everyone talks about how The Jazz should trade AK.
    It might just happen.

    Option 1. If New Jersey does not get a top tier free agent - James, Wade, Bosh, they may not want to give up all their cap space on David Lee and Joe Johnson. Turning them into 2010 version of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit spent all their cap space on Gordon and Charlie and they are still a lottery team. So New Jersey or some other team might just use their cap space for AK who comes off the books in one year and they can try again in 2011. But New Jersey is not trading Lopez or their 3rd pick for AK.

    It all depends which teams are willing to throw money at Johnson, Boozer, Lee, Gay - They are good players, but not players who anchor a championship team around. If Bosh and Wade goes to Miami and James go to Chicago. And Stoudemire stays in Phoenix. NYC, NJ, Still have tons of money - who do they spend it on?

  • JePaMac
    May 19, 2010 10:09 a.m.

    Jesse: nice points on a potential trade with the Nets, if they miss out on LeBron and look at it as a way to make a run at Melo. That kind of a point is not the same as "Hey, AK's a Russian, maybe that NJ guy will take him!"

    I haven't heard anyone talk about Ed Davis on here. Anyone have any thoughts (besides regurgitated ESPN babble)?

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 10:04 a.m.

    The first priority is the C positions. That is where the Jazz can increase the team WP48 the most, quickest for the least money.

    In this draft there is Cousins (I would not trade up), Monroe and Aldrich. Monroe will take a couple of years (to develop), most feel Aldrich is a back up in the NBA. I am not thrilled. He could play faster.

    Is Aldrich better than Koof or Fes (with playing time)?

    I felt Whiteside is too underweight but Camby has extreme WP48 scores. Is Whiteside a Camby or a bean pole?

    The 2nd easiest position to add WP48 is the PF. Millsap can play that for a year or 2. AK can back up until the trade deadline or when the drafted PF is ready.

    I like Udoh, Monroe would be okay, maybe on Monte.

    A great SF would also help with AK at PF and with Korver and CJ as ? marks.

    I would like to see the Jazz get a C via trade or exemption. A decent one and develop both Fes and Koof. Draft PF/SF this year.

    Go PF. Get an extra 1st pick for SF or move up in the 2nd.

  • huggyface
    May 19, 2010 9:50 a.m.

    I like the idea of getting Scola and Battier.

    Another scenario would be to sign and trade Boozer to Orlando for Gortat and Barnes (or Pietrus). Gortat has shown he could be a starter on most NBA teams.
    If the Majic get swept they will want to clean house and Gortat has played smart and would fit in with the Jazz. I think ORL would go for it because both teams would benefit. I like Barnes for his all-arround game and grittiness. He is a tough defender and can also hit a shot from outside.

  • blauch
    May 19, 2010 9:49 a.m.

    Why don't you tell us who the Jazz should draft so we can have a record on how great a talent scout you are? Anyone can do better with hind site.

    Every Team in the league passed on Redd, Memo Okur, Boozer, Kevin Martin, Davis, Marc Gasol, Matthews, So are you saying that every GM in the NBA is horrible?

    When you have the 3rd pick in 2006 and draft Williams - you cannot say they missed on Granger - they did not have a pick for Granger.

    But had they not taken Williams they could have drafted Granger and then taken Rondo in 2006. It would have saved 2 additional first round pick for David Lee in 2005 and Shannon Brown 2006.

    There are a couple of bad drafts - Passing on Josh Smith was a huge mistake - Not only was he ranked higher by scouts he had more upside than Snyder or Humphrey. You have 2 drafts shoot for the fence on one

    Almond over Gasol - That was just dumb

    Taking Kosta over Chalmers was a mistake, but Jazz fans would have been nuts taking a point guard instead of a center.

    No one is perfect on drafting

  • JK
    May 19, 2010 9:32 a.m.

    wow ....lots of dreaming going on with the trades suggested...some of you must think the other teams in the NBA are stupid....

    our #9 to Houston for their #12 AND SCOLA !!!!! like the rockets would do that...even if you threw in Fesenko or korver they would laugh at that

    and forget NJ giving up Lopez ..it won't happen...

    The Sixers will keep their pick and draft Turner to team up with the young Jrue Holiday to form a future dynamic backcourt..the notion of them passing on him because they have Iggy is rediculous...they will be moving Iggy this coming season...

    I agree with most experts that only Turner and Wall are a sure thing...after that the field levels out..

    and Doug10 is right....we are stuck with OKUR...an injury like his to a guy his size is devastating...he is now damaged goods...

    May 19, 2010 9:06 a.m.

    I think we can stil get a decent big in the draft, I like the AK trade idea with the nets, so he could be a nets team member by the time the FIBA world Championship starts. But I would do it only if Lopez is coming to the Jazz,or for their 3rd pick which it looks he wasn't that happy with, so we can get either Cousins or Favors.

    If the Rockets want to move up, I would trade our 9th for their 12th and Scola or Battier even if I would have to put KK or Fes on the mix, they would like to have Fes as a back up for Yao. Scola will fit perfect on the Sloan flex.

  • LKA
    May 19, 2010 8:51 a.m.

    First of all Koufus and Fess do not get more playing time because they are no good.They never will be more than a two minute back up. Jersey would not give up Lopez. How about Harris.That and a package of picks and players Jazz could move around.Some think 76ers will skip on Turner because they hav Iggy.

  • Doug10
    May 19, 2010 8:34 a.m.

    The Jazz are probably saddled with Okur as his injury may end his career depending on how his rehab goes.

    The Jazz may best benefit by signing Boozer, trading Milsap and keeping AK. The following season with AK's salary available the Jazz can replace AK and Milsap.

    Todd I am not a hater but when you get paid $5 million and you are the paid shooter and will not shoot then I don't feel the love for Korver anymore.

    Sloan is a stick in the mud. He coaches consistently and it seems only one way. The players who play inhis system appreciate that it is his system that allows players like Matthews to step in and perform and become great. It also allows teams mostly made up of second rounders and some misfits to comptete in the playoffs annually.

    Phil Jackson is a great coach but he would never take what KOC hands to Sloan and make winners out of them. Sloan takes whatever comes his way and does the best he can, and he seems to put together a competitive team.

  • Jesse
    May 19, 2010 8:24 a.m.

    I've got to agree with Uteology about Whiteside, although I see him more like Camby instead of Mutombo, more offense than Mutombo but less defense.

    Riot Man, you're not making much sense. Sure trading Okur would be great, but you can't trade him for nothing, which is what teams would be willing to offer for a Center on the decline and coming of an achilles injury. Trading AK's contract makes sense but he's a great all around player who we'll need to soften the blow of losing Booz and losing Milsap's presence of the bench. David Lee is not a center, a nice player, but would only add to our defensive problems, not solve them. Haywood would be ok but would he sign here over other teams if the money is the same? I doubt it.

    I've got to disagree with TexasCoug about not needing another 2 or 3. Especially if that 2 or 3 is Evan Turner. Mathews and CJ are adequate, but we need depth and more scoring punch with Korver likely out. Udoh would be a solid pick at 9 though.

  • AFCoug
    May 19, 2010 8:17 a.m.

    I like the Jazz moving up to two for Turner. He and Williams would make one of the best PG/SG combos in the NBA. At 6'7'' he is big and athletic. Not sure we have what Philly would want though. Maybe our #9 and the Memphis pick?

    If not moving up like most others I think we stand pat and try to get a big. I'm not as confident in Fes and Kufos as some others are. We need the most polished big out there though and not another project. Cousins may be the best big but is young and would like sit on the bench as Sloan likes his players a bit older and developed. I like Udoh as he has played 2 years at baylor and is a bit older (22). I think Aldrich fits best into Sloans system though and his work ethic has been a huge plus. Both Aldrich and Udoh are shot blockers where Monroe is not as good. All are big with good wing span and believe all would be an improvement over Kufous or Fes. It's a crap shoot.

  • Riot Man
    May 19, 2010 6:05 a.m.

    There is another possibility here folks. If we traded Okur who is getting worse, AND AK who stinks, we can now sign a proven commodity at C, David Lee or Brendan Haywood. Then you can trade up and use the pick to go get a 2 to harass Kobe all game long and maybe we can finally get past the Lakers. What would it be like to have another legitimate 2 in this system? And one that actually plays solid defense too?

  • Uteology
    May 19, 2010 12:55 a.m.

    We need defense, a presence in the middle. So if no DeMarcus Cousins then I say...

    Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall

    Conference USA's Freshman and Defensive Player of the Year. With a 7-foot-6 wingspan, he led the country with 5.4 blocks per game, a Dikembe Mutombo-in-waiting. And he has a good touch from short range, though it's stil a work in progress.

  • Boozer Bandwagon
    May 19, 2010 12:55 a.m.

    DeMarcus Cousins is my favorite for the Jazz in this draft - hope his attitude is good. He is now projected at number 5 in ESPN's latest mock draft. Cole Aldrich looks impressive on video, he's a well polished player ready to make an impact; he's no Greg Ostertag. He's more like Tyler Hansborough. Ekpe Udoh has a big wing span like others mentioned and Greg Monroe looks solid. Daniel Orton is also worth a risk as well as Hassan Whiteside(another wing span player to counter other teams like the pesky Lakers). I would either trade up for Cousins or stay at #9 to get a big man.

  • rvalens2
    May 19, 2010 12:54 a.m.

    Lopez is the only player on the Nets the Jazz would want. But I doubt that the Nets would be willing to give him up without getting more in return than AK.

    What might that be? Likely a draft pick and/or Fesenko (after the Jazz re-sign him). Fes would be a natural fit for New Jersey, replacing the bulk they would lose with Lopez. It also doesn't hurt that he's Ukrainian and would fit right in with the international flavor Korhorov wants to build into the team.

    The hard part would be how to structure such a trade so that it fits within the NBA's guidelines. The Jazz might also have to take some back players they don't want or need.

    It's a dilemma but adding a player like Lopez would make it worth the effort.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 12:47 a.m.

    The wp40 (not adjusted for position)

    Cousins 17.8
    Aldrich 17.4
    Whiteside 15.6
    Monroe 12.5

    Davis 15.9
    Varnado 15.9
    James 15.6
    Udoh 12.5

    Maric 14.6
    Tomic 7.1

    Italian League
    Motiejunas 8.1

    Jones 17.4
    Jackson 16.6
    Johnson 14.9
    Butch 14.9
    Tolliver 13.6

    Dorsey 15.9
    Harris 15.9

    Note the competition level of the Euro League is probably better than the NCAA.

    It should be noted that college wp40 is not a particularly great predictor of NBA success. The NBA is a different game.

    The new mock draft has the MN picking Cousins and UT picking Monroe.

    If MN picks Cousins they might trade Love? In a 3 way? UT should be able to buy a 1st round pick to get another decent player if they want.

  • Bugoff
    May 19, 2010 12:24 a.m.

    The Jazz have to have a Center who is at least average in WP48. That means at least .15.

    Okur was .05 this year and .08 the year before. .09 in 08. .10 in 07 and .17 in 06.

    Okur was an average C when the Jazz got him but he has steadily declined.

    If you believe that the Fes will sign with the Jazz and that he will move his negative wp48 up to a +.15 by Christmas of next year then you ride with Fes. Or ditto if you have faith in Koufos.

    If not then the Jazz need to get an existing NBA C with a wp48 greater than .15 or they need to think about getting Cousins.

    Wall is not the best pick based on Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes.

    1. DeMarcus Cousins: 15.61
    2. Evan Turner: 14.37
    3. Wesley Johnson: 13.40
    4. Derrick Favors: 11.20
    5. John Wall: 9.97

    I will have to see if I can find a PAWS40 for Udoh and Monroe.

  • rvalens2
    May 19, 2010 12:23 a.m.

    There are a lot of reasons why I believe Korhorov will make a run at trying to get AK to the Nets.

    First, the exposure for Korhorov in Russia would be huge. AK carried the Russian flag during the last Olympics and he's still revered over there.

    Second, as has already been noted, missing out on the number one pick was a BUMMER for New Jersey. Had they landed it, that would have been front page news in Russia.

    Korhorov knows there is no one in the draft that would match the impact of bringing AK to the Nets. It isn't enough for him to satisfy Nets fans in the U.S. ... his goal is to create a following back home in Russia.

    Finally, with AK's expiring contract, any future extension would be for a lot less money and would provide the Nets with some wiggle room to sign a big free agent next year.

    Now ... what might the Nets offer the Jazz that might swing a trade?


  • TexasCoug
    May 19, 2010 12:11 a.m.

    There is no reason to trade up in this draft. We need a center or PF (in case Boozer doesn't resign, and to back up Millsap). Udoh would fill the role perfectly, with Monroe being my 2nd choice. We don't need any more 2s and 3s and frankly I don't think Cousins is any better than Monroe or Udoh. I have watched Udoh a few times and his defense is very impressive. Really the only thing the Jazz need in this draft- interior defense!

  • Jesse
    May 18, 2010 11:56 p.m.

    Taj or Jerebko would've been nice. All you need to do is post who they picked in the last 10 years and it speaks for itself.

  • Jesse
    May 18, 2010 11:32 p.m.

    You might be able to "ship AK to the Russian dude". Besides the Russian connection, NJ has money to spend this year but might not be able to get any of the guys they want. AK's expiring contract might be interesting to them with Carmelo being the big FA next year. With a ton of money and the move to Brooklyn upcoming, they could land him. They could even afford to sign a big time player this year, make the trade for AK and use that money coming off the books to go after Melo. Lots of options. We've got that Memphis pick next year to play with, so moving up is realistic.

  • Nevada fan
    May 18, 2010 11:27 p.m.

    I doubt that any player in the this years draft will be an immediate impact. Hers my dream team or move: sign and trade Booz with the draft pick for Bosh, and trade Okur, Koufus, and price for Kaman (not sure if he is available). If AK won't sign cheap unload him for cap space.

  • Jazzsmack
    May 18, 2010 11:20 p.m.

    Here is the list from last deacade of player jazz missed and it doesn't even include players they missed if only they had just moved up a bit:

    michael redd, Primoz Brezec
    gerald wallace, dalembert, Jamaal Tinsley, Tony parker, arean, okur, bobby simmons,
    Tayshaun prince, Nenad Krstic, john salmons, boozer , matt barnes,
    2nd pick Darius Songaila, Luis Scola
    Boris Diaw, Travis Outlaw, Kendrick Perkins, Leandrinho Barbosa, Josh Howard,
    2nd pick KOrver, mo williams (let him go)
    Al Jefferson, josh smith, jr smith, kevin martin,
    Varejo, ariza,
    chris paul, bynum, granger, david lee, turaif, monta ellis, andray blatche
    2nd pick gortat
    rajon rondo
    aaron brooks, arron affalo, glen davis, marc gasol,
    mario chalmers, deandre jordon, Chris Douglas-Roberts
    darren collison, taj gibson, marcus thorton, wes matthews (they didn't draft him), jerebko, casspi

    compare this to the list they did draft and still have:
    dwill, cj miles, milsap, fesenko, koufos.

    OVER the last 10 years!

    NOw tell me they are still great at drafting and evaluating talent and potential.

  • JePaMac
    May 18, 2010 11:10 p.m.

    I think at 9 we're going to be looking at Monroe, Udoh, Aminu, or Ed Davis. All of those guys give us length or athleticism (or both) where we need it. I obviously would have loved to have moved up, but I think we can definitely fill a need at 9.

    I don't know why the Jazz would move up. I don't really see anyone worth getting that high (unless they thought Cousins was going to fix his attitude) or see anyone taking what the Jazz would have available to offer...

    I mean, is a team going to take Boozer and the Jazz pick to miss out of drafting Favors? I doubt it.

    If only it were as easy as "Just ship AK to that russian dude and everything will be cool..."

  • Jesse
    May 18, 2010 10:57 p.m.

    Ultimately, I think we ought to go bold and move up to 2 and get Turner. I know we need size but Turner looks like the surest thing to me. We could use a 2nd ball handler and creator. Imagine the set, where Wesley Mathews brings the ball up and Deron plays off the ball, being run by Turner. I think with Turner being a great ball handler and more of a threat, it really opens up that set for Deron.

    If we go that way in the 1st then i'd take a project later in the 2nd like Hamady N'Diaye, who had a pretty good run at the Portsmouth Invitational. He averaged 9pts, 7rbs, and 4.5blks in a tough Big East conference. I'd love for us to take a chance on him with his 6'11" frame and 7'6" wingspan.

  • Floyd Johnson
    May 18, 2010 10:45 p.m.

    I am easily confused, but it is my understanding that Boozer is a free agent. He is not under contract, and the Jazz can't "trade" him to any team for anything. We just wait for the calendar, then interested teams start sending him fruit baskets and suitcases full of money. The Jazz don't even get a courtesy call out of the deal.

  • Jesse
    May 18, 2010 10:43 p.m.

    I'll repeat my comments about Whiteside, he's raw and not a finished product, but the way everyone leaves early you rarely see a completly polished rookie. He's got a smooth looking jumper and is extremely long (7ft w/ 7'6" wingspan) and athletic. He's got some impressive stats also, 5.4 blocks per game and had 3 triple doubles last year (11,10, and 13 blocks in those games).

    Now i'd still like to move to 2 or 3 for Turner or Favors, but if we end up staying at 9 I think he might be the way to go. I like Udoh as well but Whiteside has too much potential to pass him at 9.

  • steve
    May 18, 2010 10:23 p.m.

    IF THE JAZZ can get Monroe we can maneuver to what happens with Boozer.Philly has to make a diction who they are going with at center.Sprights and Dalenbert both are perfect.The other centers available in the draft are in the same inexperience as Fes.Young.Getting 1 of Philly guys,and Monroe would also put the Jazz to make a trade,AK,Boozer easy'er Atomic is improving but won't be here until next year.# 9 is going to help,as long we get what we need now. Monroe + trade='s fun next year!!GO JAZZ

  • B Russ
    May 18, 2010 10:22 p.m.

    @ Captain L

    I'm starting to wonder if Udoh or Monroe will even be left at #9?
    Hopefully one of them preferably Udoh.
    If there gone maybe somebody else good will slide, I would rather take a good 2 or 3 than Aldridge. Fes will be better or Koufos than Aldridge.

  • Jazzsmack
    May 18, 2010 10:14 p.m.

    RE: J1232 | 7:34 p.m

    Do I need to post, Again, the history of the draft to show HOW BAD the jazz are at draftng?

    IF they so great why are there only 3 1st rounders on team from last decade?

    The list is long of players they missed on in BOTH the first and second rounds,

    who are having careers in NBA,

    while we don't hear much about those great jazz picks.

  • toddfromsantaana
    May 18, 2010 10:07 p.m.

    SLoan "the best coach in the league"

    Hee Hee
    Hee Hee

    I am rolling over laughing, thanks for the laugh...

    Oh yeah the very best

    22 years

    rings won

    Much better than Jackson and all, Auerbach, Holtzman

    I was hopeful we would see a plaque of "Mount Jer"

    in the same photo surrounding him would be his "sloanaholic leaders"

    Doug10 (a leader of the Sloanaholics):

    Doug, you bag on Korver, Fes and Koustos much as I do on "Jer"

    Are you a hater?

  • Rational
    May 18, 2010 9:58 p.m.

    Dang Knicks! Had to stop being lousy at just the wrong time...

  • TrueFan
    May 18, 2010 9:52 p.m.

    A few thoughts on the lottery: I was happy to see the top three picks go to eastern conference teams. I would have hated for the Jazz to deal with Wall or Turner if they had gone to a western conference team like Minnesota or Sacramento. The west is tough enough already.

    Also, I really like the possibility of the Jazz trading to move up. A few teams that expected to get top two picks didn't, and they might now be much more willing to listen to trade offers. I don't think the Jazz will stay at 9. I think they will trade the pick one way or another. I just get the funny feeling they won't stay put.

  • Aces in the Hole
    May 18, 2010 9:46 p.m.

    ARG............. I can't take your silly Jazz fans. We need a center, trade Boozer, are you serious! Boozer is a top 5 PF in the league, and no Milsap is not the answer as a starting PF. The Jazz have the best point guard in the league, good role players and the best coach in the league. The problem is the Jazz don't have a closer, look at games 1 2 and 3 against the lakers, the Jazz were so close just can't finish! DWill needs to find a way to close games, or the Jazz will be a really good team not a great team.

  • Captain L
    May 18, 2010 9:45 p.m.

    Re byronbca : That is why you go after Udoh or Monroe both are 4's,6'10, both are long, athletic,defender/shot blockers and there aren't any centers worth picking that will be available at #9. The Jazz should be able to get one of those two without giving up any of their assets.

  • Captain L
    May 18, 2010 9:35 p.m.

    Re Miles : You must think alot of Brand and Dalembert.
    You trying to ruin the Jazz?

  • Miles
    May 18, 2010 9:15 p.m.

    The Jazz need to trade Boozer their first round draft pick, and a the memphis pick to the 76ers for the sixers pick and either Brand or Dalembert.

    What do you guys think of that one?

    Did you see KOC I should be the GM and Cowboy Joe the owner

  • byronbca
    May 18, 2010 8:54 p.m.

    Re captain L
    The Jazz actually have three 7 footers in development with 7'"2 Ante Tomic, but I still think you go after the best big you can get whether it's a 4 or a 5.

    Just keep drafting and stock piling big guys until one of them works out.

  • byronbca
    May 18, 2010 8:41 p.m.

    Keep in mind that the Jazz have some assets to move up if they need to ie: the future lottery pick from Memphis, the rights to Ante Tomic, and all of their future first rd picks.

    But also keep in mind that it took 3 1st round picks to move up from 6th to 3rd in 2005

  • Captain L
    May 18, 2010 7:56 p.m.

    Re Duh : Nobody knows what the Jazz are thinking but there probably won't be any centers available that are worth the ninth pick and the Jazz already have two 7 footers that just need developing. If you picked a center in the draft they would be in the same pickle Fes and KK are in. Sitting at the end of the bench hoping for playing time so they can develop.

  • B Russ
    May 18, 2010 7:41 p.m.


    Some very interesting senarios cold develop with this years pick whether we keep it or use it as bait to swing another deal. The new Russian owner looked disappointed losing out to Washington and Philadelphia.(Ouch) The Jazz are loaded with trade ammunition for teams looking to wheel and deal.

  • cedar
    May 18, 2010 7:38 p.m.

    mr. duh, there is always someone negitive. lets have fun to hope we will get a good player. quit being a grouch and go fishing.

  • J1232
    May 18, 2010 7:34 p.m.

    What are you talking about? The Jazz are one of if not the best drafting teams in the NBA. The Jazz will dramatically improve their team with this pick.

  • EyeDeeTenTee
    May 18, 2010 7:31 p.m.

    I agree with rvalens2, but fear the Jazz will trade AK for Keith Van Horn. I will not be surprised to see them pick a 1 or 4 when we desperatly need a great 5.

  • toddfromsantaana
    May 18, 2010 7:28 p.m.

    probably Austin Ainge or someone from a parts unknown no one has heard of

  • flex
    May 18, 2010 7:19 p.m.

    This is a WEAK draft! It doesn't matter who the Jazz PICK!....The Jazz need a proven SUPER STAR! If the Jazz are ever to win a championship, they need to get one of these free agents out there. BIG TIME move= BIG TIME results!

  • Duh
    May 18, 2010 7:03 p.m.

    And the Jazz will make some stupid pick and forget that they have no one in the middle to help their team. Anyone want to bet that even with the 9th pick the Jazz still won't find a center?

  • rvalens2
    May 18, 2010 7:02 p.m.

    Since New Jersey did not get the number one pick, will this make them more amenable to a working out a trade with the Jazz?

    Korhorov mentioned twice on ESPN that he wanted to make the Nets an international team with global players.

    Adding AK to New Jersey would certainly do that.

    It will be interesting to see how badly he wants a Russian Hero on his team.

  • Captain L
    May 18, 2010 7:02 p.m.

    At least we didn't drop and now we can concentrate on who will be available at #9.
    Like I have said I like Epke Udoh but Greg Monroe would be good also. As workouts start and more info comes in on how the players perform opinions can and probably will change but Udoh is 6'10, athletic, 7'4 &1/2 in. wing span, defender/shotblocker (3.7 per game last yr). good ball handler, lot of potential.
    Monroe is 6'10/11, lefty, good ball handler, good passer, good rebounder.
    Both of these players give us the length we need at PF.
    Montiejunas would be a possibility, 7' , good offensive player.
    Aminu would be a possibility at the 3 if he is available.