Utah Jazz: Carlos Boozer or Paul Millsap?

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  • toddfromsantaana
    May 16, 2010 3:19 a.m.

    Bugoff it becomes "a math issue", money has to freed up somewhere. I take my priorities are resigning Fes, saving money for the top pick and Wes Matthews.

    Having said that I would like to acquire a consistent shooter and potential 15-18 ppg. John Salmons would be a good acquisition and fits the low key maintainence and team guy Sloan and "his sloanaholics" look for.

    This means people have to be let go that would be Boozie the Snoozie and Korver.

    Miles can replace Korver with his 3 point shooting ability streaky as he is. CJ grew up and had his best year. As he turns 24, he seems to now be the dependable pro we hoped all along and he can get better.

    He can fill Korver role and has much more athleticism to be a potential complete player.

    Millsap will play small forward and with the interchangable parts he can play power forward depending on matchup.

    If we are stuck with Kirilenko and his "drama" he can play power forward with Okur with Okur starting

    The Center can either be a free agent vet and Fes rotating, Fes 15- 20 min ppg or draft pick and Fes

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 10:58 p.m.

    There is one thing I forgot about. Did not the Jazz get a trade exemption in the Harp deal? That can be used plus the MLE to get a couple of 5-6 mill players.

    That give the Jazz more flex and bargaining power with Mathews, Fes and Korver. Booz will probably get traded for picks and who know what. He can get more money and pick his destination.

    The more I remember how many games Booz has missed the more I realize the Jazz have to move on.

    Petro is a FA. He is cheap. He can play well occasionally. The Jazz have options to fill some holes and not be any worse off than they were with Booz/Okur.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 9:29 p.m.

    Cap L The stats are only an indicator. They do not prove or disprove anything. They are evidence just like observation. However, they can give you a different camera angle.

    Korver can be replaced but the new player will have to learn the system and rebound and play better D.

    Korver improved his D a lot. He is still not quick enough. The market will determine Korver's price. The Jazz financial situation will also. Many people feel Korver may be over priced in a bad economy. We will see.

    To me Korver is an important back up. Sometimes he is a closer. He is quite useful to the Jazz. It is a question of how much they should pay.

    The key point is that the Jazz are a .500 club with DWill/Booz but without enough 3 point shooting. They need more than Korver for 3 point shooting but he is enough to get them into the playoffs but not enough to contend.

    CJ is still a ? Mathews will improve shooting.

    The 3 capability and the D have to be improved. If Korver can improve his quickness he could really help both himself and the team.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 9:18 p.m.

    The Jazz got Booz and Okur because they were available and would improve the team. They have done remarkably well, producing playoff teams.

    Because the Jazz love continuity and resist change it is imperative that they get players at each position who have the characteristics that will maximize the Sloan Flex. The past 3 years the Jazz have had players who were not optimal for their positions.

    DWill may be the only one. AK is pretty good at SF. He could shoot better.

    Booz is a great PF but he is too short and can't handle tall line ups. Okur is good but a Euro C and not ideal for the flex. Brewer was very good but could not shoot.

    The combination of less than optimal players at so many positions and the continuity bias prevent the Jazz from creating a contender.

    Over the next 2 years the Jazz need to carefully get players in each position who will maximize the effectiveness of the team and create a contender.

    Then continuity bias will work in their favor.

    Forget the projects except for back ups.

    Go get the ideal player at each position.

    Use the draft/Trade for picks.

  • Captain L
    May 15, 2010 4:21 p.m.

    Re Bugoff : I said I enjoyed your statistics, but as much as statistics are interesting they don't always tell the hole truth.
    I'm really pulling for Fes to be resigned and to get the PT so he can develop & I have been saying his plus / minus should show how valuable he is but I realize he is a long way from being the player we want and need in the middle. The thing with Fes is he is young and has great potential and he effects the game defensively with his ability to alter shots and bang etc. His potential may be the key to wanting and hoping he stays with the Jazz and develops.
    You may use statistics to say the Jazz need Korver but that is where I say statistics are misleading. I watched all the games and don't feel Korver had much impact on them, (I'm sure there were a few but). plus finding a wing to spread the floor should be much easier than finding a 7'1, 300 lb center. The play of CJ and Mathews also make the need to resign Korver less. Both of them should imporvenext year.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 4:20 p.m.

    The Jazz knew they were going to keep Wes when they did not cut him. Why did they not get an extension then. They knew they were going to keep him when they started playing him.

    The Jazz specialize in 2nd rounders and Dleaugers. They spend a lot of time and money developing them.

    Why don't those first contracts include a 2nd and 3rd year team option so that the team is protected right up front on the first contract.

    I do not know if this is KOC or who but someone is doing bad initial contracts and it is costing the Jazz.

    If a player is good enough to get the first contract it should automatically have a team option in it. The Jazz are constantly putting themselves in binds and needlessly costing money by thier BAD business practices.

    I hope they don't make the same mistake on Gaines. How much does it cost to add a team option on the first contract when the Jazz have all of the leverage?

    Where is the communication between Sloan and KOC? Does he know which player are going to make it?

    Team option on OJ?

  • louisiana jazz man
    May 15, 2010 1:37 p.m.

    they could have got millsap for a lot less but had to play games thought they would get him for nothing like david lee. should have signed fess or had a option. could end up with matthews korver fes boz all gone.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 1:08 p.m.

    Where to do the Jazz get the money to resign Boozer for 3-5 million more, resign Fes or replace Fes at C and resign or replace Mathews. Ditto for Korver.

    They could let Korver go but the Jazz were a .500 team before Korver and also when he was injured this year. That shows you how really unbalanced and deficient the Jazz are in 3 point shooting. Take Korver away and the Max contract DWill/Booz are a .500 team.

    Both Mathew's and Fes's agent can demand up to 5 Mill each (some rule that it can be higher).

    The Jazz only have 1 MLE. If they lose Mathews or Fes do they use it to replace one of them? Do they resign Korver?

    Until the Jazz get Fes and Mathews resigned all of this talk about resigning Booz is moot. There is no money to give Booz a raise.

    Sign Booz and you lose Mathews and Fes to some other team.

    Can you really replace Korver with a Dleaguer?

  • Large Tuna
    May 15, 2010 12:43 p.m.

    @CaptainL. I agree that Fes will improve and become part of the solid rotation with time. But I think the fact that he has the best plus/minus on the team is a little skewed, simply because he played very few minutes when compared to the other players on the team (probably gaines and jeffers and KK are the only players that played fewer minutes). Another red flag is, aside from the playoffs, he only played at the end of games against the other teams' scrubs when we were either blowing out another team or we were getting blown out. Like I said, I agree that he will get better and will probably become a huge asset to the team, but for now his stats are a little fuzzy given the situation.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 12:41 p.m.

    Why did not the Jazz put a team option into Fes's contract last fall? If they are going to develop these 2nd rounders then they need to tie them up instead of wait to get mugged by the agents and teams like POR in FA.

    I am sure that negotiating with many of these agents is difficult but the Jazz can do better than they have been doing.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 12:37 p.m.

    How viable is it to bring Tomic over? This does not look good. I do not see a C in the top 10 who would really help the Jazz immediately.

    Cousins even if they got a chance to get him seems like a NON SLOAN player.

    The Jazz should have extended Fes before his agent went to work for SAC and Fes hired a major headache as a replacement.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 12:29 p.m.

    The more I think about this the more I realize the Jazz have trapped themselves once again.

    Fes' agent will demand blood, the Jazz will low ball and Fegan will send Fes else where. The Jazz will be under extreme pressure to resign Booz so they can play small ball. Booz will demand bank and shaft the Jazz in the longer run or until the next injury.

    They do not have the money nor the trade assets to go get a good C. They might get someone like Haywood for the MLE but DAL can give him more.

    If they can't resign Fes they may lean toward drafting Cole Aldrich. He does not solve the C or the PF problems.

    They may be able to sign and trade Booz for some help. They may be able to move AK's expiring contract.

    There is a reason why Sloan talked about tanking for 6 years as a way to get enough talent to win a championship.

    The Jazz may need a C and a PF. Where do they get a great one for reasonable?

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 12:17 p.m.

    It is worth noting that Fes now has an agent with a long bad history with the Jazz.

    Do not count on Fes being with the Jazz in the fall. They had their chances to lock him up before now and played games with him.

    The Jazz organization is really not very bright sometimes.

    Koufos better work on his A game. He could be the starting C this fall.

    There are several good reasons to do really well in drafting in the 1st round. The Jazz are really lousy.

    I would say that their very poor drafting record in the first round is a major reason why they rarely get higher than a 4th seed or go deep in the playoffs.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 11:35 a.m.

    The New CBA may change all of the rules for winning a championship. It is not wise to give Booz or any player a big multi year contract prior to the CBA.

    AK will be expiring next year. He also is getting older. He will have to be replaced or resigned at a lower figure.

    It is far better for the team in the long run to take the 15-17 mill it would take to sign Booz and start getting the right players at PF and SF for reasonable before the New CBA.

    Some of that money could go into a SG but if CJ plays to potential he and Mathews are good enough there for the next couple of years.

    To win a championship the Jazz need 3 players with WP48s near .300 and they need the collective team to have a high enough WP48. This later issue killed the Stockton/Malone teams.

    Several Western Conf teams have multiple high WP48 players with good supporting casts. 3 of the Eastern teams do.

    The Jazz have to build a team that can beat LA. They can not do that relying on DWill plus Booz or Millsap at PF.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 11:26 a.m.

    It is not just losing Booz that has to be addressed. The C is a MAJOR issue.

    In the playoffs Fes's points and rebounds when adjusted for minutes played (18 vs 29) were just as good as Haywood who started for DAL. However that is still not as good as Okur's regular season numbers.

    Assuming that Fes/Koufos play C next year due to money issues. Additional WP48 has to be put into the SG/SF positions. Fes/Koufos will improve (rapidly) with playing time, but the Jazz need at least 10 points and 10 rebounds from the C position in 30 minutes to compensate for losing Okur.

    If AK plays at PF 1/2 of the time, his WP48 has to be replaced at SF. CJ played really well this last month. Will he do it all of next year? If he does then he can provide more WP48 at SG by backing up Mathews and playing some at SF.

    The Jazz need a NBA ready 6'10", defending, shooting, rebounding SF. A SF/PF tweener would be ideal and much cheaper than the ultimate PF.

    The team needs more WP48 and more balance across positions.

  • Captain L
    May 15, 2010 11:13 a.m.

    Re Bugoff: I appreciate your reseach and stats, they are very interesting. Keep up the good work.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 11:08 a.m.

    None of Booz/Millsap/AK are the right PF to beat LA.

    To get the right PF UT will have to draft the right one. It will take 2-5 years to develop a draftee.

    The current version of the Sloan flex is overly reliant (held hostage to) the PF position. It is extremely weak at the SG position. They are too one dimensional.

    There is equifinality. There are several approaches that will produce a championship team with roughly equal costs. All approaches will have some weaknesses and some different strengths.

    In plain English there is more than one way to skin a cat or achieve a goal.

    The Jazz are fully capable of winning a championship with Millsap at PF but only if they put more WP48 into other positions.

    I maintain that UT will not win a championship with Booz unless they do put more WP48 into other positions.

    With Okur out it is very tempting to give Booz a lot of money to "save" next year.

    We need to continue to rebuild now.

    Booz will never be better and his contract will kill the Jazz in 2013-2016 and sooner when he gets hurt.

  • Captain L
    May 15, 2010 11:06 a.m.

    Everyone keeps saying we need a new center to help Okur.
    It doesn't seem to matter how many times we point out that Fes had the best plus / minus of any player on the team. That means while he was on the floor his team (Jazz) scored more than their opponent. That is what we want isn't it! Fes will only get better with playing time. Be patient and let's hope the coaches work hard with him and KK.
    With Fes and KK the Jazz have two 7 footers that have potential and just need to be developed.
    Two areas of need defensive/shotblocking PF to replace Booz and an athletic 3 (that can shoot) to back up AK and eventually replace him.
    CJ filled in at the 3 Ok last year but he is more suited to play the 2.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 10:55 a.m.

    I am going to make both the pro and con arguments for Boozer. I personally feel the team is better off in the long run moving beyond Booz. In the short run it is a difficult year or two.

    1. In 32 seasons only 6 teams have won a championship having only one player with a WP48 higher than .200. Most championship teams have 1 player above .300 plus 2 above .200. WP48 is essentially win score adjusted for 48 minutes of playing.

    2. This year (2010) Booz was .291, DWill .239 and AK .221. Millsap was .143. Last year Millsap was .229 and Booz was .158. Starting at PF jumps your WP48.

    3. If Booz leaves his WP48 has to be replaced by Millsap and AK or a PF back up. Then AK's WP48 at SF has to be replaced.

    4. Booz was .251 in 2008, .345 in 2007 and .248 in 2006. We have probably already seen Booz's best year.

    5. Millsap's best year was 2009. He has added a jump shot and should continue to improve.

    6. AK's WP48 will improve some as he plays at PF.

    Millsap/AK can replace Booz.

  • Captain L
    May 15, 2010 10:38 a.m.

    As more information comes out regarding the players available around #9 my opinion very easily could change but right now I like Ekpe Udoh. He is 6'10, long, athletic, shot blocker, defender and handles the ball very well for a 4. He blocked 3.7 shots per game last year, has a 7'4 1/2 wing span.
    Greg Monroe 6'10/11 of Georgetown, lefty, teams offense ran thru him, rebounds well,7'2 wing span, versatile, block 1.6 per game, good passer, unselfish.
    Either one of these guys look like they would be a good pick up. I like how Udoh blocks shots so well,it would be interesting to have them both come to the same workout and see how they compete against each other and in structured workouts designed to evaluate their talent.

  • Donald
    May 15, 2010 10:35 a.m.

    Boozer leaving is the only way the Jazz can get better. AK and Paul will take care of the PF position. Jazz need another center to compliment Okur.

  • Captain L
    May 15, 2010 10:14 a.m.

    So far in their careers Booz has proven to be better if you measure being better by scoring and rebounds but Milsap did show in the playoffs that he can be as productive as Booz. Paul did step up and play better than he had, he has more agility than Booz and that helped him score against the trees of LA better than Booz could. Milsap is a better defensive player and he is more durable.
    Financially signing Booz would seriously hurt the Jazz for any flexability regarding player moves.
    The fact that Booz & Milsap are very similar in size, & productivity and that with them we can't compete against the tall,long athletic bigs of LA & other elite teams means Booz has to go and we need to make decisions for the future accordingly. Finding a good 4 or 5 in the draft usually means you need to have a top 5 or top 10 pick and considering that the Jazz usually draft in the 20's, we probably need to use this pick on a long, athletic, shotblocking 4.

    May 15, 2010 9:46 a.m.

    I think Milsap can put up the same numbers as Boozer and play better defense, our team is quicker when Milsap is in, but as Sloan said, who will replace Milsap? for sure will be our 1st round pick for this draft.

  • Uncle Rico
    May 15, 2010 8:58 a.m.

    Boozer. Love Paul, but Boozer if I had to choose.

  • J in NY
    May 15, 2010 6:34 a.m.

    RE doc33:
    I see no reason why Milsap wouldn't be able to manage playing 82 games a year, when considering he rarely misses games, and we're only talking about playing 10 extra minutes/game. The Jazz are not going to get a PF in the draft who would start over Milsap this year.

    As for Mathews off of the bench, who is going to replace him in the starting line-up?

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 6:24 a.m.

    On Booz/Millsap I will make detailed comments later when I have time.

    Booz had great numbers this year mostly because he is a great PF. However, he stayed healthy (except for the last PHO game). Okur's and Millsap's numbers dropped this year while Boozer's improved.

    There are team dynamics for this. Okur deferred rebounds to Booz. Or Booz called for them. Millsap got fewer minutes and in a back up role.

    DWill ran more of the offense thru Booz.

    Boozer's numbers this year will be the best of his career.

    Against LA Boozer was back to his fading jump shot and to getting blocked.

    Millsap was able to go right at the trees inside much better. He is quicker and more explosive in his inside moves and can attack the LA bigs directly.

    Booz does not have that ability. Millsap still gets blocked. He still gets shot over. He is not the PF of the future. But he is cheaper than Booz.

    Millsap will put up just as good of numbers as Booz. His win score will be just as good.

    AK can back him up. AK needs cloned.

    Adjust the SF/SG/C.

  • Bugoff
    May 15, 2010 6:15 a.m.

    The Booz/Okur experiment is a 2 part equation.

    Okur averaged 13.5 points and 7+ rebounds last year. One of the justifications for Okur at C was his ability to shoot the 3 and pull the opponent C out, opening things up for Booz.

    That may be misleading. Okur only averaged a little over 1 made 3 a game with 38% shooting.

    If you replaced Okur with an inside out C who had a midrange shot and who was more traditional (a banger), the rebounds should go up to about 10 per games.

    Each rebound is worth 1 point so the 3 points coming from Okur at the 3 line would not be lost.

    However, if you had players at the SG/SF who could shoot the extra 3s (better %) you would raise the UT rebounding by 3 and get a better outside game.

    Okur can't rebound from the 3 line.

    If you got a C who rebounded and played D better, you fixed 2 major weaknesses. If you shift the 3s to the SG/SF you can play inside out.

    UT is weaker in rebounding and 3s than most playoff teams. Fix it.

  • Duds
    May 15, 2010 2:28 a.m.

    In comparison to Boozer though, Milsap has held up better. You counter your argument in the same sentence, "...Boozer was hurt a lot, Milsap was dinged up pretty good himself". At least Milsap wasn't "out", while our precious Boozer was wearing suits. Milsap will be able to easily fulfill our PF role just fine. With both Boozer and Milsap, it's giving them room to operate.....and we can get this from the 5 spot.

  • doc33
    May 15, 2010 12:57 a.m.

    Actually, I don't think Millsap can physically stand up to the 82 game grind of the PF position. Thinking back 2 years ago when Boozer was hurt a lot, Millsap was dinged up pretty good himself during that stretch of games where he had that consecutive double-double streak.

    In my estimation, Millsap is best served coming off the bench with Matthews and Ronnie Price. Hopefully, the Jazz can add the PF they need in this years draft.