TAMPA, Fla. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season should be about as bad as normal or slightly busier, with a good chance of six to nine hurricanes forming, federal forecasters said Thursday in a new way of making predictions.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also said 12 to 16 named storms and two to five major hurricanes could form.
They said there is only a 60 to 70 percent chance for their predictions to come true, the first time officials gave a probability. They took that step following years of criticism of their long range forecasts, which have usually been fairly accurate but in some cases have been way off.
For example, government forecasters expected 12 to 15 named storms in 2005, but there turned out to be 28, the busiest season on record.
Forecasters stress that residents should always be prepared no matter what the seasonal forecasts say, because even a slow season can be disastrous. Seasonal forecasts don't predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.
"We don't want anyone changing their preparation plans because of the seasonal outlook. The only number that matters is the number one, the one storm that you need to prepare for," said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, which is part of NOAA.
An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes of which two reach major status with winds of more than 110 mph.
Forecasters and emergency responders fear that coastal residents will be apathetic this year after the United States escaped the past two storm seasons virtually unscathed.
"Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now before a storm threatens," said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator. "Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery."
Colorado State University weather researcher William Gray expects 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major this year.
Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
Gray was further off the mark. Before the start of the season, he forecast 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes, five of them major.
The Atlantic season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.