The Treasury Department says it expects global economic growth to slow appreciably during the current year before gaining "renewed strength" in 1992.
Treasury's semiannual projection of global trade growth, which was delivered to Congress in the form of a 27-page report, projected that industrial countries would show an aggregate growth in real gross national product of 2.5 percent to 3 percent in the coming year, almost double projections for 1991.That growth was expected to be accompanied by an increase in consumer price inflation at about 4 percent in 1992, slightly below the 5 percent inflation rate recorded this year.
Less Developed Countries, meanwhile, were expected to grow at a rate of just under 1 percent this year and return to a rate of about 3.5 percent in 1991.
Average inflation in those countries was expected to ease substantially in 1991 and 1992, with sharp declines forecasted for Eastern Europe and Latin America.
Asian countries were expected to continue to lead all LDCs with a steady growth rate of 6 percent driven less by exports than it was during the 1980s.
Also expected to grow economically during the next few years are countries in Latin America, where the benefits of market-oriented programs to promote stability begin to have an effect.
The Treasury Department expects grown in real gross national product for Latin America to reach 3 percent in 1992.
The Middle East, however, remains a highly speculative gamble in terms of forecasting, with the government citing continued political unrest and the regional effects of economic sanctions against Iraq as the primary reasons why growth prospects do not appear likely until 1992.