A retired naval officer predicts that President Bush will invade Kuwait by Feb. 1 and that 10,000 American soldiers and 250,000 Iraqis will die in the bloodshed.

But, retired Rear Adm. Eugene J. Carroll Jr. of the Center for Defense Information told a Weber State College audience Wednesday that the best policy in the Persian Gulf is to have patience and wait for the international sanctions to take full effect.Carroll predicted that a war in Iraq would last about three months and kill hundreds of thousands of people at a cost to the United States of about $80 million a day. "That's a gloomy picture," he said.

Carroll is the deputy director of the Washington, D.C.,-based organization comprised of retired military people who examine U.S. military policy.

From discussions within the organization, Carroll said, it appears Bush is preparing for war in an attempt to force Iraqi President Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait.

"We (the Center for Defense Information) think the outcome should be shaped by diplomatic means," said Carroll. "Have patience."

The admiral said the United States has nothing to gain by invading countries in the Middle East because Arabs throughout the world will hate Americans for killing their people. And the consequence, said Carroll, is that a new Iraqi leader will later emerge and become an enemy of the United States.

The United States became a superpower after World War II when America came out of the struggle stronger instead of damaged like other countries, Carroll noted while explaining the history of this country's military mentality.

"We assumed the role as No. 1 in the world," he said.

Carroll said the United States then became the power to contain the Soviet Union by going to war in Korea and Vietnam. He said that the United States has developed an addiction for controlling events in the world.

Then things changed in the 1980s when the Soviet Union lost power both militarily and economically. "The end of the Cold War was upon us," said Carroll.

The retired admiral said that the United States moved from containment mentality to a role of policing the Third World.

Carroll said the United States has two options in dealing in the Persian Gulf. First, a violent military action, or, second, non-violent means through diplomacy or sanctions.

He said the United States still has a choice in the matter but that Bush sees the problems in the Persian Gulf not as a crisis but as a showdown.