Such California glamour sites as Anaheim and Orange County, San Franciso and Los Angeles lead the list of the nation's riskiest real estate markets, a University of Michigan researcher reports.
Salt Lake City, Tampa, Fla., Louisville, Ky., and Kansas City along with Oklahoma City, San Antonio, El Paso and Houston in the recovering Southwest, are now among the least risky, says finance Professor Dennis R. Capozza.Albany, N.Y., Baltimore, Hartford, Conn., and New York join the California cities on Capozza's risky list.
The ranking uses data on employment, income, construction, tax rates and price trends to assess real estate markets that are characterized by weak or unbalanced economies.
"In terms of employment growth, California has dropped from above average to average, and New England is the only area in the nation which has dropped from above average to below average," Capozza said.
Copozza, the university's Stephen M. Ross profesor of real estate, will present his quarterly risk rankings at the annual U-M Real Estate Forum Nov. 16-17.
When a market becomes distressed, he said, deliquencies, defaults, declining prices, slow sales and equity erosion result.
"The situation becomes `risky' for home owners, sellers, buyers and especially lenders," he said. "Property is difficult to sell, and there is a lot of competition. Prices may not decline, although sales are slow."
Safe markets, he said, are in areas that are recovering or beginning to grow, where the economy is balanced, income and employment are expanding and real estate prices are reasonable.
In addition to Capozza's report, the real estate forum, "How to Make Money in a Down Market," will examine how to reposition a firm for the uncertain 1990s and present a panel discussion on emerging trends in real estate.
"Developers have to change their corporate direction or they won't have any money next year," said Peter T. Allen, U-M adjunct lecturer in real estate and forum organizer. "The fee-driven developer is not going to survive.
"An astute developer will emphasize sales, rental and market research of unfilled niches rather than adding any new construction."