Thanks to a tax cut passed by lawmakers meeting in special session earlier this summer, the potential impact of the tax initiatives dropped to $329 million - down $22 million from what state forecasters predicted last year.
But a revised Utah State Tax Commission report also showed that some local government entities would lose even more tax revenue than projected in last year's report if voters approve the initiatives in November.The 57-page report released Thursday is an update of a November 1987 report on the impact of the property tax initiative - one of the three proposed tax initiatives.
The initiative, which would cap property tax rates almost immediately after passage and limit future government growth, would cut nearly $185 million according to the report.
Tax commissioners also said Thursday that a second initiative to rollback increases in state income, sales, gasoline and cigarette taxes passed by the 1987 Legislature as of Dec. 31, 1989, would take $141 million from government coffers.
They did not detail how government entities would be affected if a third initiative passed. The cost of that initiative, which would give tax credits to parents of children in private schools, is estimated at $3 million.
The first report to document the projected losses was prepared using 1986 tax figures. The updated report, which will be the last prepared before the November election, uses 1987 tax rates.
However, if and when the tax initiatives are approved, their effect would be on budgets funded by taxes raised through 1988 tax rates. Tax commissioners said they do not expect that the impact would change much using 1988 rates.
The $22 million drop from last year's projection can be accounted for in the 5 percent decrease in the state income tax rate approved by the Legislature last month.
While that decrease would reduce the effects of the roll back initiative by $30 million, the reduction is offset by an $8 million increase in the amount the tax initiatives would slash from property tax revenues, according to the commission report.
That increase is the result of more taxes being collected statewide under 1987 property tax rates than under 1986 property tax rates. Those government entities that collected more taxes in 1987 than in 1986 saw an increase in the amount of tax revenue they would lose if the initiatives are approved.
The Murray School District, for example, would have lost almost $600,000 had the tax initiatives gone into effect when taxes were being collected using 1986 rates. Under the 1987 rates, the amount the school district would be out jumps to nearly $1.5 million.
Among cities that would be hurt more by the tax initiatives than originally projected include, Sandy, which would lose almost $600,000 - about twice what was calculated using 1986 tax rates.
West Jordan saw the projected effect of the tax initiatives jump from about $5,000 to more than $68,000. And West Valley has been told to forget the estimated $116,000 impact and plan for about $480,000 in cuts should the initiatives pass.