Utahns are not optimistic about the nation's or state's economy next year - many believe inflation will go up and recession will arrive, the latest Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.

As President Bush and members of Congress struggled over the weekend to come up with a budget compromise, many economists are saying the U.S. economy approaches recession.Some say we've already reached it. Others say it is sure to come. The real debate is not when recession comes, but how long it will last when it does come.

Leading conservatives in Congress, like Rep. Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., say any tax increase - almost an assured part of a budget compromise - will only hurry the nation into a recession and make recovery that much more difficult.

Pollster Dan Jones & Associates found in an Oct. 4 poll that 38 percent of Utahns believe inflation will be higher across America next year. Thirty-six percent think inflation in Utah will be higher.

Thirty-nine percent think recession will come in America during 1991. Thirty-three percent think a recession will hit Utah next year, Jones found.

He found that 6 percent think America will suffer a deep economic depression. Only 2 percent think the national economy will improve in 1991, Jones found.

Those who make more than $40,000 a year - the more-well-to-do who likely own and run businesses - are even more pessimistic than other Utahns. Forty-four percent of them think we'll have a national recession next year; 2 percent think it will be a deep depression.



In your opinion, what will the U.S. economy be like by next year?

Higher inflation 38%

Reduced inflation 5%

Recession 39%

Deep depression 6%

Increased prosperity 2%

Don't know 10%

In your opinion, what will Utah's economy be like by next year?

Higher inflation 36%

Reduced inflation 10%

Recession 33%

Deep depression 5%

Increased prosperity 7%

Don't know 9%