Recoveries happen because a large portion of the population is positive about
the prospects available in the near future. If you think you will have a job,
earn more next year than you did this year, and the government won't take
away an even bigger chunk of your income; then you will feel more free to buy a
home, a car, or some new furniture.When everyone is worried that
they might not even have a job next year, they will only buy what they
absolutely need to get by. When everyone does this, like a mirage, the
"recovery" is always on the horizon.In 2008, the "hope
and change" slogan of Obama was sold to us as a hope that things will change
for the better. Instead everyone is just hoping that things don't continue
to change for the worse.
Because economists mostly only look at money and money flows, and don't
expand their search into demographics, they have largely missed the real
underlying causes of The Great Recession. And, let's be honest, it's
really a depression, and not merely a recession.To be sure, the
underlying cause of the Great Depression was really the same. Drastically
declining birth rates. From 1910 onward, a plethora of problems began. Including
drastically declining birth rates. The deaths from war and the Spanish Flu
Pandemic of 1918 killed so many in their prime child bearing years, that the
1920's began in trouble. Combine that with rebellion against the then newly
passed Prohibition, and as more people didn't keep manmade laws, they also
ignored God-given laws, like chastity. Anti-immigration laws that went into
effect in 1924, combined to cause a decline in demand for housing in 1926. In
early 1929, demand for housing plummeted. And the stock market crash in October
1929 made the beginning of the depression official.Birth rates
stayed low in the 1930's and into the 1940's. The Baby Boom
(1946-1964) is what really got us out of the Great Depression.
We aren't doomed to an eternal recession. Reduce government regulation and
drop Obamacare altogether (along with its associated new taxes) and the
recession would disappear almost overnight. Allow new oil refineries to be
built, too, and we'd see the economy really boom.In summary,
government involvement IS the problem, and the answer is to have less of it.
I'm very much pro-business but I highly resent unethical businesses who
take advantage of the American public by hiring illegal alien trespassers. This
results in keeping wages low. Besides the fact that those practices result in
unfair competition with businesses who DO follow the law.The
"middle-class" will SOON cease to exist unless competition between
employers is regulated the way the laws of our country intended them to be.Illegal immigration keeps wages relatively low, while the "midddle
class" pick up the REAL costs associated with them being present in the
United States.There is a REASON why we have immigration quotas!
It should be patently obvious why the economy does not grow. We live in a
consumer based economy. The economy depends on our spending endlessly (while
arguably for things we really don't need). The consumer has
tapped out his/her credit. His/her earnings have declined in real terms. The
effects of our profligate national spending will come home to roost with higher
taxes inevitable to pay for the things we have already bought, and the things we
must provide for. The only thing keeping the economy running now is the Federal
Reserve policy of issuing massive debt.I don't know what the
answer is. I know that the Tea Party Republican answer is ridiculous (lower
taxes). I know the Democratic response is also nonsense. The answer is neither
bigger families nor reduced regulation either. Things have changed
fundamentally, and the sooner we come to grips with this, the sooner we might
find answers. Until we all grow up and avoid simplistic answers, expect nothing
different from either political party.
The limitless of every thing has changed the value of every thing. I can't
see that any thing is worth what I'm spending.
I like Dilligent Dave's response, and it is exactly how I see things. To
have a strong economy you need a booming population, harvesting of natural
resources like oil, gas and food to fuel the growing population, and adherence
to laws - both societal/legal and healthy maintenance of virtues that govern
behavior. Strong virtues spur inspiration, invention, marriages, giving,
charity, sharing, and everything GOOD that contributes to growth and prosperity.
The USA had a lot of immigrants from 1890 to 1910, but then the immigration
stopped due to stiff immigration laws, and when a ton of people died due to flu
and war ,and when Americans became lawless during the prohibition era, the
economy tanked.Nowadays with the collapse of the family due to
divorce/gays/infidelity and lowering of standards of virtues - we see the
results in society at large; people are fixating on anti-growth agendas like
fake science (global warming), LGBT rights (counter-family), and the rapid
growth of the welfare state. Add into the mix costly wars and corrupt
politicians who don't follow the Constitution, and we should not be
surprised that the country is languishing in a Depression.
This is what Obama and his supporters wanted all along. Then they can play the
poor vs rich in every election cycle, and maintain power forever. This is
called soft tyranny.
The first 4 comments make some very valid points. This recession (near
depression) is not going away anytime soon. Government interference
is the cause of many, if not most national issues. Unfortunately, the current
administration has added significant more government interference in both the
lives of individuals and in the entire business world. Expensive,
government mandated health insurance significantly hurts consumers. Extensive government regulations, combined with the highest business taxes in
the free-world has created a huge two-fold impediment to business growth. The key to overcoming any and all recessions is a vibrant and growing
business climate. But as long as the current administration continues with
it's agenda, that cannot and will not happen. Its regulations and taxes are
significantly hindering business expansion. One of the biggest
differences between someone like Mitt Romney and Barrack Obama is their
attitudes toward business environments. Mitt is a business and economic genius.
The results in his personal life are verifiable proof. Obama has never had any
business experience whatsoever. His attitude toward business is also proof...
and very telling. Had the last election gone differently, this
recession could well have been over by now.
JoeCapitalist... just keep banging that deeply partisan bell. We experienced a
global recession, and we are experiencing a global recovery. Anyone who thinks
that America can ever act as a sole player, that somehow the fact that 50
percent of our economy depends on exports or imports can be mitigated from the
equation, is setting themselves up for disappointment. Change is
what happened. The Recession was the catalyst for many industries to trim down,
and they all will be very slow to regain that extra weight they were carrying
during the bubble. Add to that the impact of ever increasing globalization of
markets, resources, and talent, and there will be very much permanent job
displacement.So wish as you must that Obama is the cause, the game
has changed, and would have regardless of who was in the White House.
Baby-boomers were going to retire regardless. China's economy was going to
grow. India and Brazil will continue to race into relevancy. There is no going
Since we have to pay for it one way or another, how about getting the monkey of
health care off employers' backs, set up a system that gives all citizens
care and job mobility, and ultimately save money and move forward?
Totally possible that we will not recover. We re-elected BO; we have no
economic sense.Bluedevil,Someone needs to beat the right
partisan bell to counter-balance your consistent beat of the left partisan bell
UtahBlueDevil:I wonder if you gave GWB the same pass for the
troubles that happened in his 8 years as you seem to be giving Obama for
everything he has done to contribute to the problems of the past 6 years?I don't "wish that Obama is the cause" of all our current
troubles. As a conservative, I think his policies are dangerous, but I would
much rather have a booming economy than the current situation just so I had
something to blame on him.I think Bush did a bunch of dumb things
that contributed to the meltdown in 2008 and I think Obama has done even dumber
things that have kept us from a robust recovery.If that means I am
"banging a deeply partisan bell", then so be it.
Some of my fellow commenters just don't get it. This is not necessarily
Obama's doing, but a mixture of various policies, regulation and
de-regulation over the last 30 years. The recessions since the 1980's have
required more and more government stimulus to pull us out and set a precedent
for future borrowing. Republican Ronald Reagan led the way. Income inequality
and globalization is a driving force of our economic malaise. In a consumer
driven economy (capitalism), if the middle class has less money to spend, the
economy will spiral downwards and reinforce that spiral due to stagnant wages.
The recession in the early 2000's (Bush years) showed us just how messed up
our economy had gotten. The aftermath was often referred to as the jobless
recovery. The only thing that pulled us out of that recession was the
widespread use of home equity lines of credit and easy access credit. Once that
last source of stimulus dried up in 2008 with the financial market collapse
(while Bush was still President by the way), the true state of the economy was
finally exposed for what it is.
Well said, Hutterite.America needs to start working together. House
divided and all that. Value all citizens and give respect to those at the
bottom who do the worst jobs for the least pay. If we're a
Christian nation, then we'd better start acting like one.
Amazing that the conservative, pro business types are so fundamentally myopic in
their point of view.Corporate America is doing just fine. Corporate
balance sheets are laden with cash. The NYSE is at all time highs. Interest
rates are low, and will stay there. We have little inflation. And the tax
codes insures that almost any profit earned is sheltered. What else do these
people want? Blood?The problem is not Corporate America, it is
consuming America. Most of us just don't have the money to buy stuff, even
at Walmart. Real wages are stagnant for decades. It takes two incomes just to
make ends meet. Really conservatives, get off the high horse.
Corporate America is having a field day, and the Obama administration is aiding
and abetting them as much as Republicans do.
The 2nd part of my comments is this. The Baby Boom subsided in part,if not in
large part, due to the advent of "the pill" in 1960, just when the first
crop of young female baby boomers were coming of age. What their parents learned
or did, the boomer undid. On average, for every 200 baby boomers, they gave
birth to about 170 babies. 211 is the magic number given our mortality rate just
to achieve exact replacement.Problems like inequality,
interestingly, have been addressed by the now famous French economist, Mr
Pickety, who has pointed out that inequality is least when populations are
growing and markets are thriving. I've noticed in Utah, how as the typical
maximum median number of children has dropped from 7 or 8 to 4 or 5, the number
of bargains at grocery stores has greatly diminished. Since few are having all
that many children,even in Utah, the deals aren't as lucrative to stores as
other ways of making more money from fewer sales. Margin, not volume, on sales,
has become more important.
Remember that even as the recession/depression drags on, and millions of people
are chronically unemployed, the stock market is as high as it's ever been.
Seems somebody is doing all right.....(There's the old joke: A
recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose
JoeCapitalist.... see the difference between your post and the one above it is
that at least you agree there is a problem on both sides. You can't fix
what you don't acknowledge. Pointing the finger at the other side does
nothing to solve the problem... telling the other side to fix there problems
doesn't advance the cause. You fix what you can control, and that is the
mistakes your side makes....@Lost.... if you think I am a
liberal.... you really are lost. I am simply one who doesn't like the use
of misinformation, even lies, to make points. Genuine differences of opinion
are great, and even encouraged. But making up stuff... by either side is
something I will not let passively slide by.If you call that being a
liberal..... then so be it. If the opposite means that being a conservative
means you turn a blind eye to deceptive statements... then I am absolutely not
your brand of a conservative.
So they're now trying to sell us the "New Normal". Hoping we
forget what a good economy is really like when administered by a Republican.
Reagan, Bush, Clinton (who did a lot of Republican things with the Gingrich/Dole
Congress) and Bush again, until the Reid/Pelosi Congress began messing things
up. All just to try to make us believe that Obama is a good President. I
can't trust liberals to think in any way but emotional. No matter how bad
he messed up, liberals just can't bring themsleves to criticize one of
their own. Especially when he is a minority.
ordinaryfolksamazing that the liberal point of view is so misinformed.
Balance sheets are laden with cash because there is no place to invest it. Look
at a bank balance sheet for example, they have TONS of liquidity, but loan
demand is very low. No competent business manager is going to invest their own
cash or borrow from a bank when the recovery is so tepid.Little
inflation? Last month’s numbers were the highest in years – and I
guess you haven’t noticed what BO and Iraq have done to gas prices.Interest rates are expected to rise early next year, and long-term
mortgage rates jumped 100 basis points a year ago.Profits are
protected? Is that why corporate tax rates are around 35% (combined state and
federal)?Really liberals, get off the low horse – the economy
is suffering and your hero BO has been at the helm for too long to blame anyone
else.BluedevilIf I am lost, it is your consistent beat of the
liberal drum that has led me astray. I do not think you have been consistent in
staying away from misinformation – saying you are not liberal being the
current case in point
UtahBlueDevil: "Pointing the finger at the other side does nothing to solve
the problem... telling the other side to fix there problems doesn't advance
the cause. You fix what you can control, and that is the mistakes your side
makes...."I agree wholeheartedly that each side needs to fix
their mistakes. So tell me...what should Obama and the Democrats do to fix what
they currently control? So far, all I have seen from this administration is
blaming the GOP all day long for every problem in America.Obama has
made a ton of far-left (almost socialist) decisions that have greatly damaged
this country. They are clearly not working for our benefit. The polls show that
the majority of Americans have lost all confidence in this president to solve
problems. Does he change course like Clinton did in the 90s? No. He doubles down
and digs in even deeper to a failed ideology; ignores every scandal; and points
the finger at the GOP every chance he gets. That is an epic FAIL of leadership.
Kings CourtIf everything you say is true, then the logical
conclusion is that Obama has taken all of the errors of the past and quadrupled
down on them. Talk about jobless recoverys and stagnent wages. Obama is the
presiding Archbishop of that. And he has managed to do that while still
increasing out national debt by some 7 trillion dollars. One would think that
by spending 7 trillion dollars in 5 years a President could at least create the
illusion of a good economy. And unbelivably, some Democrats complain that not
enough government spending has taken place, and Obama should spend more. That
thinking is like continuing to dig a hole straight down in hopes you will be
able to get out on the other side.
@Lost...i'll take you calling me a liberal a compliment.@Capilatist, I think the administration hasn't been clear enough on its
policies for Iraq and Syria. Yesterday was a start but comes way short.
Stopping ISIS and correcting the regime in Iraq to me are two separate actions.
We need to stabilize Iraq first, then influence corrective measures, not the
other way around. Our middle east policies have been a mixed bag. We have been
far too measured.As to the "socialist" policies, I am not
sure how you consider 4 years of quarterly year over year growth an epic fail.
US corporations are doing just fine. Even airlines are making money. These
"socialist" policies haven't hurt them. It is rank and file
worker that has not realized the benefits of this growth. Asset valuations
(Stock, physical property, etc) has all rebounded nicely, and in many areas
exceeded by far 2007 valuations. This balance sheet growth though has not
translated into higher average incomes. The number of millionaires increase
70 percent over the last couple of years. They are doing fine. Blue color
middle class have not benefited though.So it is a mixed bad - not "epic"
The Bush Administration's legacy is ruining the economy forever.
It's not too few babies, it's not immigration, it's not Obama.
It's because we are now in a 21st Century and operating with
the expectation that our 19th and early 20th Century ingrained, hard-wired
assumptions are still valid. They are not. We no longer have nearly infinite
land, air, and other resources. Earth is one small planet with over 7B and
moving to 9B people. Our economy is in a tough transition from a
constant growth economy (essential a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme economy) to a
resource-sustainable economy. Many of the younger generation get that and are
already in transition. The older - and the oldest - will have a more difficult
time. That includes nearly all conventional (growth-oriented) economists,
legislators, Governors, and even Presidents.As long as we look to
growth for the 'solution', we'll be disappointed. We have to get
beyond those assumptions and that mentality.The kids get it. Talk
with them. Good luck.
Article title: "‘Is it possible that Americans may not recover from
the recession?’"Recession?What recession?I have it on good authority that we've been in a "recovery"
since 2009!I mean, if Obama said it, it MUST be true, right?
"Is it possible that Americans may not recover from the recession?"That depends on what is meant by "recover."Will
Americans have the exact same lifestyle they had before the recession?
Hopefully NO.If people are smart, they will have learned not to
overextend themselves by living beyond their means.
Brio -"Government interference is the cause of many, if not most
national issues"NO, not really.Government that does
not govern wisely may be the cause of certain national issues.But
the Founders did not create the government to not interfere. They created a
government that would govern.The purpose of government is to govern
wisely. And good governance does exactly that.Get used to it.
Joe Capitalist -"In 2008, the "hope and change" slogan
of Obama was sold to us as a hope that things will change for the better.
"Things did change considerably for the better . . . But
there's plenty of room for improvement.
Do Americans have the ability to elect honest leaders?
Worf....I think we often elect well intended people into a system where many
attempt to corrupt good processes to their own benefit. I am not convinced
those that go their with ill intent, but it doesn't take long for many to
fall to the influence of these influences.That is why while I think
we will never turn off the stream of money that ultimately corrupts, we can
enforce true full disclosure of who those influences are. While free speech is
protected, we should make sure that free speech is expressed in the open, not
hidden behind ambiguous sounding PACs hiding the real intentions of those who
fund these.Force full disclosure, and we will all be able to judge
who is attempting to corrupt the process, and the people.
At 61, this will be the economy I will live in until I die. Its just an economic
The system doesn't need as much labor as before. This is just the
beginning. Marx was right!
Someone who really understands what has happened and what it has done to the
economy and I think this article should go viral. Its to the point and accurate
and indisputable reality.Inflation taxation is giving government
more expendable incomes than they have ever had blinding them to think its
because of recovery. People are not changing their spending habits or paying
attention to inflation and what its doing to their income to debt ratio. Our economy is consumer dependent and its why banks, colleges, and
government and financials institutions are encouraging consumers to maintain a
high standard of living not compatible with their level of income. Consumer debt
to income ratio is 103% and more which means consumers are spending more than
they can payback week.The Utah governement budget to debt ratios is
near 90%+ and if it reaches 100 then it is bankrupt. Normal income to debt for
government must be equal by law with a balanced budget and Utah is way out of
control as is nearly all state and federal government agency's.Its going to take a universal US state and federal government spending shut
down and reinstate the free market consumer cash economy to recover.
After living in Europe for several years that this is what Europe has looked
like for decades. Our U6 unemployment (real numbers) is 12%, similar to France,
UK, Italy, with Germany doing better and Spain doing worse. What I have
observed after a decade over there is that Socialism does one thing real well,
it pushes 70% of the population into a lower middle class society. The
Bureaucrats and the rich aren't affected by Socialism they have the means
to get private health insurance, own their own business and travel well. The
lower middle class is taxed so heavily 20-40% flat tax in Britain, that it is
nearly impossible to break out into a typical middle or upper class. After a
while they realize that it isn't worth it to work harder, and take more
chances, and they resign themselves to the reality of the masses. When I worked
there, I was in the lower income bracket, and paid around 40% of my income in
taxes with no deductions write off.(20% flat income tax, 20% VAT, Gas Tax,
County tax, Road Tax etc. etc.), Most people realize that living on the dole
or working 35 hours a week results in a very similar outcomes.
Diligent Dave, since you believe that a population increase will get us out of
the recession, are you also arguing for opening the borders and welcoming as
many immigrants as want to come?You deny climate change. Do you also
deny the smog in the cities? The incidence of asthma?Do you think
that having eight children per family makes a nation prosperous? Do you have
any countries in mind which illustrate this?