byu beat Utah by .05 this year, 2.68 to 2.63 per Rivals. Just last
year Utah's margin was .66, more than 10 times the margin byu fans are
bragging about this year.
After following the B12, PAC and Independants recruiting from the day after the
2013 class was signed, I get the feeling that Utah has really hit a downward
trend. Dan Hawkins last recruiting class at Colorado, was so bad that he lost
all of the top 15 in-state kids, did poorly in Texas and California normally
hotbeds for the Buffs and his press conference at a Denver hotel was the oddest
I've been at. The Hawk read the list of signees then walked out of the
ballroom and out the lobby door into the parking lot. He took no questions and
made no remarks. The black cloud still hangs over the school. I get the same
feeling that Utah is in a similar tailspin, which is sad I like the coaching
staff. With 30+ bowls it really hurts a program to miss out twice in a roll,
kids know that, and look elsewhere.
CB. I love to see your support of the Utes. . . but please don't get hung
up on stars assigned to recruits. The Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos
had a combined 125 players on their game day roster. Eighty one of those
players (65%) were "ranked" as 3-Star or lower by Rivals.In
particular note: Rivals 2-Star rated players - Zane Beadles, Bobby Wagner and
When Utah puts as many kids in the NFL as Texas and Stanford does then
we'll talk. As an ASU and Stanford alum today was incredible 7 kids with
4-5 stars were signed by the Devils, Stanford was in the same situation and USC
WOW. Certainly placing kids in the NFL is nice but most won't go there so
the degree is far more important, I would think a degree from the 62nd BEST
SCHOOL would be of more value than lets say one from a school in the 120's.
BYU has a national championship along with wins in every major award category
Heisman, Davey O'Brian, Outland, Sammy Baugh etc. I haven't checked
lately but just how many Heisman's, Davey O'Briens, Outland trophies
do they have in the case at Utah? Course being home with the fam over the
holidays is nice too.
JoCo Ute"Eighty one of those players (65%) were "ranked"
as 3-Star or lower by Rivals"Come on JoCo Ute, I expect better
than that from a fellow Ute. Please tell me you're not suggesting on
average any given 3 star player usually turns out to be better than a 4 or 5
star. That couldn't be more wrong.All recruiting
services give out significantly fewer 4 stars than 3 stars and fewer 5 stars
than 4 stars. You don't really think that on average 3 stars turn out to
be better than 5 stars right?It would be like me suggesting since
there are more guys under 7 feet tall in the NBA that a guy who is 5 feet tall
has a better chance at getting to the NBA than a guy over 7 feet tall.Or like me suggesting since Stanford has more students who DONT have a perfect
SAT score that a kid who scored 900 on the SAT has a better chance at being
accepted to Stanford than a kid with a perfect SAT score of 1600.Again, please tell me you understand this very basic concept. Higher stars USUALLY mean better players.
Joco ute,Just read an article on nfl.com that says only 1% of
college recruits are given 5 star ratings and yet 44% of 5 star guys get
drafted. Interesting that 5 stars are only 1% of the college recruit
population and yet 44% get drafted. Nick Saban, urban Meyer, Steve
sarkisian, les miles, and several others have been getting a lot of 4 and 5
stars compared to their respective percentages of total recruits. You should hurry and go tell those guys what you have discovered. Boy will they look silly when you tell them 3 stars are usually better
Chris B.,What did you think of the BYU recruiting special on BYUTV?
I know you watched it. I'm a die hard Cougar fan, but Mendenhall has lost
his luster for me. So we kind of agree on him. I wish Andy Reid would come
back to Provo and coach BYU. However, I do agree with Bronco about stars.
I'm pretty old, and I've seen too many 5 star guys (Jake Heaps and Ben
Olson) that have fizzled, and too many "no star" guys (Cody Hoffman,
Andrew Rich) do well. I believe Eric Weddle was a "low star" guy too.
Your point about stars, and the NFL is pretty interesting.
So by the way you worded it Chris 44% of 5 star recruits get drafted?So
not even half of them get drafted?Do you know what percentage of 4-star,
3-star etc? Just curious.
BYU delivered about what it can be expected to do so with its recruiting/honor
code limitations. It is too bad a top 4-star player from the state of UT went to
Stanford, but who can blame him. Although I was impressed with looking at Top
100 players in California, BYU got quite a few and Utah was noticeably absent
despite being in the PAC. In fact, I didn't notice any outstanding Utah
recruiting from its PAC footprint (you have to scroll through 3 pages on ESPN
Recruiting Database to find a player Utah actually landed vs. its
competition...and those were in FL and TX). I noticed Utah was ranked #10 again
in the PAC! The writing is on the wall for poor Whittingham...
What do you expect the coaches to say every year?"Well, they're
not much but they're all we got."Coaches have to speak highly of
their payers to keep them motivated.
besmart,I wasn't trying to word anything with a spin. Not sure
how you got that idea.44% of 5 stars got drafted in the years
studied. I think I said that very plainly and clearly. By saying
"not even half" shows you're trying to spin things, if anyone is.
44% of guys being drafted is HUGE when only 1% of guys get a 5 star.I'm shocked you poeple dont understand such a simple concept like thatThats an unbelievably high correlation there pal with 1% of the
population and yet 44% of them were drafted I wish this particular
article had said what percentage of 3 and 4 stars get drafted, it didnt. In the
past I did see a different article(I dont remember the name) that did take a few
years of draft picks and showed that on average a 5 star had a higher probabilty
of being drafted than a 4, a 4 higher than a 3, and a 3 higher than a 2. That
particular article only looked at like 3 years of drafts, so it wasn't a
huge population, but at the same time it showed higher likelihood of being
drafted for each increase in stars.
The biggest thing to take away from all this is that USU is taking recruits from
bigger teams than them. With Ute's and BYU leaving MWC really has helped
USU. That conference is good luck for Utah teams when they are in it. But when
you leave it gives you a curse.
eric2002,Why only talk about the limitations byu has in recruiting
but not mention the flipside of the advantage byu has with the Mormon kids?
Shouldnt those offset each other? Yes, there are many more non-lds kids than
lds in the nation, but it isnt like there are 20 LDS owned schools all fighting
for the LDS kids. On average, byu has an unbelievable ADVANTAGE any time a kid
is LDS, whether he live in Utah, Florida, Kentucky, New York, Oregon, or
California. Your right in that many players wouldnt want to go live
the honor code. I'm not arguing that. And that hurts byu recruiting. But
what you're not considering is that byu has a huge advantage with the LDS
population that every other school in the nation doesn't have. That helps
byu recruiting. Your average recruit likely has little interest in byu's
honor code. And your average school has relativley little chance at LDS
kids(compared to byu)Mormon kids are just like other kids right?
You people are only talking about the disadvantage and saying that hurts
recruiting without talking about the advantage with the LDS kids that IMPROVES
I was not trying to spin it.Usually 25 to 30 recruits a year get 5 stars.
In fact most recruiting outlets say that only the top 30 or so.60 percent
of first round draft picks were either 4 or 5 star guys per yahoo.1 in
every 6.5 5 stars become a first round draft pick1 in every 22 4 stars
become a first round1 in every 300 2 star or walk-ons in the first
round8 3-star players a year on average go in the first round.that
is per rivalsSo what do we learn. Higher stars do matterThat is why
the Utes and BYU had better hope for great coaches because they don't have
much of a shot.According to ESPN Utah got 1-4 star guy and BYU got 3.So statistically speaking most likely no first round picks for either.
@RSL,LOL! Are you being serious?There are 26 teams in
the Western part of the US between the Pac 12, mwc, and byu.Gues
what ranking Utah State has per rivals(go ahead and check others it will be
close)?26th.Dead last. Recruits on average prefer any
of the other 25 teams in the area including Wyoming and New Mexico to usu
CB. It's not about the percentage of 4 or 5 star players or what the
average 3-star player does. It's about Rivals, Scout, 247 or any other
rating service missing on 2 or 3 star players who end up playing more like 4 or
5 star players. In the last 5 years the breakdown on the 128 players selected in
the 1st round was 23 5-star and 22 2-star or lower. That is a big miss by
scouting services.Alex 2-star Smith was the # 1 pick. Yes simple
math and pure numbers does show that the success rate is high for both 4-star
and 5-star players, as it should be. But, only half (52%) of the 5-star players
make it to the NFL w/ 47% not even being drafter.Scouting services
are not perfect. A 50% success rate is a 6 - 6 season, no big deal.
@besmart"Higher stars do matterThat is why the Utes and
BYU had better hope for great coaches because they don't have much of a
shot."Wow, I think we finally agree on something. I admit I a
lot of things that can be argued, but when it comes to recruiting I'm
shocked anyone ever disagrees with anything I say. I've never said stars
are always right. I've never said higher stars guarantee wins.i've only said on average recruiting services get it right and that
having better players(which on AVERAGE is the higher stars) is important.But I agree - I dont see a future of many 4 and 5 stars for either
school so its important for the coahces to be as good as they can be. By the way - what is the 1 in every.. for the 3 stars - you phrased that one
differently. With that said, they should still focus on recruiting as
good of player(higher stars) as they can. thanks
JoCo Ute,You're not taking into account there are significantly
more 3 stars than 4 and more 4 stars than 5.No one ever said
scouting services are perfect. But yes, on AVERAGE they get it right, and do so
very well.If they didnt, a 3 star would have about as good of a
chance at being drafted as a 4 star, and a 4 star as high as a 5 star.See BeSmarts' figures above.They usually get it right.Oh, and Nick Saban seems to take a TON of 4 and 5 star guys compared to
other schools. Again, probably pure coincidence - since he can turn
a team of 2 stars into national champions just as easily right? Since
recruiting services are just flpping a coin on every guy essentially?Wrong.
CBIt is 1 in every 300 2-star or walk on players drafted.
Besmart You already gave the 2 star, you skipped the 3 star1 in every 6.5 5 stars become a first round draft pick1 in every 22 4
stars become a first round1 in every 300 2 star or walk-ons in the first
round8 3-star players a year on average go in the first round.Whats the 1 in every ... for the 3 stars
The article did not say anything for 3 stars.Just that 24.6% of the first
round on average are three stars.It did not give 1 in whatever for 3
@ Chris BIt is true that BYU has an advantage with LDS kids, who
unfortunately make up only 2% of the population. So not sure that really counts
as a true advantage when the other 98% is so difficult because of the honor
code. And of course, other power schools also are very tempting when they
recruit LDS kids -- the top of the top like Stanford, Notre Dame, Michigan, USC
-- where you get the highest education with the best football history &
track record. The brightest LDS kids will always be tempted by the quality of
the degree, and I can't blame them.
eric2002,Throwing out your 2% and 98% numbers doesn't prove
anything. That's only midway through the thought process. What
percentage of Mormon players go and play at byu? I don't know for sure but
I know the Deseret News has articles all the time about LDS players playing
college sports and it sure seems that byu gets at least 30%. Utah/Utah State
probably get 15-20% each and the remaining 40-50% spread throughout the rest of
the country. I don't think I'm overestimating at all by saying 30% go
to byu, its a very reasonable estimate.So 30% of 2% is .6%If we say the rest of the 98% go to the remaining 124 FBS teams(there are 125
total) that means any given school only has a .8% chance of landing a recruit,
so we're talking about a difference of .6% chance at landing a particular
recruit vs. .8% And that's if we assume none of the 98% of
non-lds kids would be interested in byu, which we know isn't true.If you think any of my numbers are way off, I'm open to what you think -
but simply saying 2% and 98% doesn't complete the thought process.
Some ratings have evolved into being laughable.... examples--Former commit, Donovan Wilson, was rated 2-Stars by Scout up 'til very
day Nick Saban visited him at home via helicopter/TAMU ratcheted-up pressure on
him to switch his commitment and, immediately prior to his switch, Scout bumped
his rating up to 3-Stars.Scout rates Travonne Hobbs 2-Stars, yet
offer list included--Arizona, ASU, Arkansas, Baylor, Kansas State,
Kentucky, Miss State, Oregon State and West Virginia, among others.Scout rates Tavaris Williams 2-Stars, yet held offers from, among others,
Florida, Boston College and Duke, w/serious interest from Wisconsin/Iowa
State....Received gauntlet of late offers, all w/intense high-pressure to switch
his commitment, from these heavyweights--Oregon/Auburn/Georgia.And on and on....Blatant bias favoring some/disfavoring others....In
contrast, research alternatives available to byu's 2-Star commits.The U is widely known as one of the nation's premiere schools for how
excellent they turn less regarded recruits into NFL mainstays....We don't
start w/primarily 4-/5-Star commits like Texas/Stanford, etc. do!I
trust our coaches/current NFL rosters over journalists when assessing talent!
@ CBI think the interesting question would be what percentage of athletes
would not go to BYU because of the Honor code?I honestly have no idea. All
I know is ~85% of my team would not have gone to the Y because of it. In fact
athletes there had offers from the Y and stated they didn't want to go
because of the honor code.But who really cares. BYU is at the top of the
mid-major world (yes they are a mid-major), Utah is at the bottom of the power
conference world (I think most can admit that) even though their basketball has
made amazing progress.So it was the same old argument from when Utah was
in the MWC. Which is better lower tier Power conference or high tier
mid-major.Everyone has a different opinion on that.
Bronco said, "His new receivers are “more volatile, able to stretch
defenses” and the linebackers “have fierce athleticism.” So
what good is it if your receivers are "more volatile and able to stretch
defenses," if you never throw to them? With a QB like Hill who runs way more
than he should, Cody Hoffman became just a decoy. Yeah, he caught nearly
everything that came his way, but that's the point...many passes never came
his way. It's great he had a couple of good lead-up years otherwise
he'd be Cody Hoffman, the receiver no one has heard of!