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Comments about ‘Recruiting blather peaks in Utah’

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Published: Wednesday, Feb. 5 2014 8:30 p.m. MST

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Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

byu beat Utah by .05 this year, 2.68 to 2.63 per Rivals.

Just last year Utah's margin was .66, more than 10 times the margin byu fans are bragging about this year.

Lightening Lad
Austin , TX

After following the B12, PAC and Independants recruiting from the day after the 2013 class was signed, I get the feeling that Utah has really hit a downward trend. Dan Hawkins last recruiting class at Colorado, was so bad that he lost all of the top 15 in-state kids, did poorly in Texas and California normally hotbeds for the Buffs and his press conference at a Denver hotel was the oddest I've been at. The Hawk read the list of signees then walked out of the ballroom and out the lobby door into the parking lot. He took no questions and made no remarks. The black cloud still hangs over the school. I get the same feeling that Utah is in a similar tailspin, which is sad I like the coaching staff. With 30+ bowls it really hurts a program to miss out twice in a roll, kids know that, and look elsewhere.

JoCo Ute
Grants Pass, OR

CB. I love to see your support of the Utes. . . but please don't get hung up on stars assigned to recruits. The Seattle Seahawks and the Denver Broncos had a combined 125 players on their game day roster. Eighty one of those players (65%) were "ranked" as 3-Star or lower by Rivals.

In particular note: Rivals 2-Star rated players - Zane Beadles, Bobby Wagner and Robert Turbin.

Lightening Lad
Austin , TX

When Utah puts as many kids in the NFL as Texas and Stanford does then we'll talk. As an ASU and Stanford alum today was incredible 7 kids with 4-5 stars were signed by the Devils, Stanford was in the same situation and USC WOW. Certainly placing kids in the NFL is nice but most won't go there so the degree is far more important, I would think a degree from the 62nd BEST SCHOOL would be of more value than lets say one from a school in the 120's. BYU has a national championship along with wins in every major award category Heisman, Davey O'Brian, Outland, Sammy Baugh etc. I haven't checked lately but just how many Heisman's, Davey O'Briens, Outland trophies do they have in the case at Utah? Course being home with the fam over the holidays is nice too.

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

JoCo Ute

"Eighty one of those players (65%) were "ranked" as 3-Star or lower by Rivals"

Come on JoCo Ute, I expect better than that from a fellow Ute. Please tell me you're not suggesting on average any given 3 star player usually turns out to be better than a 4 or 5 star.

That couldn't be more wrong.

All recruiting services give out significantly fewer 4 stars than 3 stars and fewer 5 stars than 4 stars. You don't really think that on average 3 stars turn out to be better than 5 stars right?

It would be like me suggesting since there are more guys under 7 feet tall in the NBA that a guy who is 5 feet tall has a better chance at getting to the NBA than a guy over 7 feet tall.

Or like me suggesting since Stanford has more students who DONT have a perfect SAT score that a kid who scored 900 on the SAT has a better chance at being accepted to Stanford than a kid with a perfect SAT score of 1600.

Again, please tell me you understand this very basic concept.

Higher stars USUALLY mean better players.

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

Joco ute,

Just read an article on nfl.com that says only 1% of college recruits are given 5 star ratings and yet 44% of 5 star guys get drafted.

Interesting that 5 stars are only 1% of the college recruit population and yet 44% get drafted.

Nick Saban, urban Meyer, Steve sarkisian, les miles, and several others have been getting a lot of 4 and 5 stars compared to their respective percentages of total recruits.

You should hurry and go tell those guys what you have discovered.

Boy will they look silly when you tell them 3 stars are usually better

mnsave
Rigby, ID

Chris B.,

What did you think of the BYU recruiting special on BYUTV? I know you watched it. I'm a die hard Cougar fan, but Mendenhall has lost his luster for me. So we kind of agree on him. I wish Andy Reid would come back to Provo and coach BYU. However, I do agree with Bronco about stars. I'm pretty old, and I've seen too many 5 star guys (Jake Heaps and Ben Olson) that have fizzled, and too many "no star" guys (Cody Hoffman, Andrew Rich) do well. I believe Eric Weddle was a "low star" guy too. Your point about stars, and the NFL is pretty interesting.

BeSmart
Cheyenne, WY

So by the way you worded it Chris 44% of 5 star recruits get drafted?
So not even half of them get drafted?
Do you know what percentage of 4-star, 3-star etc? Just curious.

eric2002x
Miami, FL

BYU delivered about what it can be expected to do so with its recruiting/honor code limitations. It is too bad a top 4-star player from the state of UT went to Stanford, but who can blame him. Although I was impressed with looking at Top 100 players in California, BYU got quite a few and Utah was noticeably absent despite being in the PAC. In fact, I didn't notice any outstanding Utah recruiting from its PAC footprint (you have to scroll through 3 pages on ESPN Recruiting Database to find a player Utah actually landed vs. its competition...and those were in FL and TX). I noticed Utah was ranked #10 again in the PAC! The writing is on the wall for poor Whittingham...

lixircat
Indianapolis, IN

What do you expect the coaches to say every year?
"Well, they're not much but they're all we got."
Coaches have to speak highly of their payers to keep them motivated.

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

besmart,

I wasn't trying to word anything with a spin. Not sure how you got that idea.

44% of 5 stars got drafted in the years studied. I think I said that very plainly and clearly.

By saying "not even half" shows you're trying to spin things, if anyone is. 44% of guys being drafted is HUGE when only 1% of guys get a 5 star.

I'm shocked you poeple dont understand such a simple concept like that

Thats an unbelievably high correlation there pal with 1% of the population and yet 44% of them were drafted

I wish this particular article had said what percentage of 3 and 4 stars get drafted, it didnt. In the past I did see a different article(I dont remember the name) that did take a few years of draft picks and showed that on average a 5 star had a higher probabilty of being drafted than a 4, a 4 higher than a 3, and a 3 higher than a 2. That particular article only looked at like 3 years of drafts, so it wasn't a huge population, but at the same time it showed higher likelihood of being drafted for each increase in stars.

RSLfanalways
West Valley, UT

The biggest thing to take away from all this is that USU is taking recruits from bigger teams than them. With Ute's and BYU leaving MWC really has helped USU. That conference is good luck for Utah teams when they are in it. But when you leave it gives you a curse.

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

eric2002,

Why only talk about the limitations byu has in recruiting but not mention the flipside of the advantage byu has with the Mormon kids? Shouldnt those offset each other? Yes, there are many more non-lds kids than lds in the nation, but it isnt like there are 20 LDS owned schools all fighting for the LDS kids. On average, byu has an unbelievable ADVANTAGE any time a kid is LDS, whether he live in Utah, Florida, Kentucky, New York, Oregon, or California.

Your right in that many players wouldnt want to go live the honor code. I'm not arguing that. And that hurts byu recruiting. But what you're not considering is that byu has a huge advantage with the LDS population that every other school in the nation doesn't have. That helps byu recruiting. Your average recruit likely has little interest in byu's honor code. And your average school has relativley little chance at LDS kids(compared to byu)

Mormon kids are just like other kids right? You people are only talking about the disadvantage and saying that hurts recruiting without talking about the advantage with the LDS kids that IMPROVES recruiting.

BeSmart
Cheyenne, WY

I was not trying to spin it.
Usually 25 to 30 recruits a year get 5 stars. In fact most recruiting outlets say that only the top 30 or so.
60 percent of first round draft picks were either 4 or 5 star guys per yahoo.
1 in every 6.5 5 stars become a first round draft pick
1 in every 22 4 stars become a first round
1 in every 300 2 star or walk-ons in the first round
8 3-star players a year on average go in the first round.
that is per rivals
So what do we learn. Higher stars do matter
That is why the Utes and BYU had better hope for great coaches because they don't have much of a shot.
According to ESPN Utah got 1-4 star guy and BYU got 3.
So statistically speaking most likely no first round picks for either.

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

@RSL,

LOL! Are you being serious?

There are 26 teams in the Western part of the US between the Pac 12, mwc, and byu.

Gues what ranking Utah State has per rivals(go ahead and check others it will be close)?

26th.

Dead last. Recruits on average prefer any of the other 25 teams in the area including Wyoming and New Mexico to usu apparently.

LOL!

JoCo Ute
Grants Pass, OR

CB. It's not about the percentage of 4 or 5 star players or what the average 3-star player does. It's about Rivals, Scout, 247 or any other rating service missing on 2 or 3 star players who end up playing more like 4 or 5 star players. In the last 5 years the breakdown on the 128 players selected in the 1st round was 23 5-star and 22 2-star or lower. That is a big miss by scouting services.

Alex 2-star Smith was the # 1 pick. Yes simple math and pure numbers does show that the success rate is high for both 4-star and 5-star players, as it should be. But, only half (52%) of the 5-star players make it to the NFL w/ 47% not even being drafter.

Scouting services are not perfect. A 50% success rate is a 6 - 6 season, no big deal.

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

@besmart

"Higher stars do matter
That is why the Utes and BYU had better hope for great coaches because they don't have much of a shot."

Wow, I think we finally agree on something. I admit I a lot of things that can be argued, but when it comes to recruiting I'm shocked anyone ever disagrees with anything I say. I've never said stars are always right. I've never said higher stars guarantee wins.

i've only said on average recruiting services get it right and that having better players(which on AVERAGE is the higher stars) is important.

But I agree - I dont see a future of many 4 and 5 stars for either school so its important for the coahces to be as good as they can be.

By the way - what is the 1 in every.. for the 3 stars - you phrased that one differently.
With that said, they should still focus on recruiting as good of player(higher stars) as they can.

thanks

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

JoCo Ute,

You're not taking into account there are significantly more 3 stars than 4 and more 4 stars than 5.

No one ever said scouting services are perfect. But yes, on AVERAGE they get it right, and do so very well.

If they didnt, a 3 star would have about as good of a chance at being drafted as a 4 star, and a 4 star as high as a 5 star.

See BeSmarts' figures above.

They usually get it right.

Oh, and Nick Saban seems to take a TON of 4 and 5 star guys compared to other schools.

Again, probably pure coincidence - since he can turn a team of 2 stars into national champions just as easily right? Since recruiting services are just flpping a coin on every guy essentially?

Wrong.

BeSmart
Cheyenne, WY

CB
It is 1 in every 300 2-star or walk on players drafted.

Chris B
Salt Lake City, UT

Besmart

You already gave the 2 star, you skipped the 3 star

1 in every 6.5 5 stars become a first round draft pick
1 in every 22 4 stars become a first round
1 in every 300 2 star or walk-ons in the first round
8 3-star players a year on average go in the first round.

Whats the 1 in every ... for the 3 stars

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