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Published: Monday, Jan. 28 2013 8:10 p.m. MST

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toosmartforyou
Farmington, UT

The biggest benefit for USU in playing BYU in Logan is they will fill their home stadium. Last year, with the best team in the history of the school, and winning a conference title outright (the first since 1934---not a typo, it really is 1934), the mighty Aggie's couldn't get 18,000 fans into their stadium for any of the three final games of the season. So much for claiming to have a "program."

As to the Utes, I think their fans who said they would rather be playing a tougher PAC 12 schedule week-in and week-out, even if that meant losing the majority of those games, have had their wish granted. Personally, I'd rather have a winning record at some level than continually being a door mat of a league where I didn't belong but was invited when the BIG 12 didn't implode as the PAC 12 Commissioner had proposed and hoped it would.

So good luck to everyone next year. I'm very happy they actually play the games on the field where the final score is what matters.

Utah's greatest accomplishment last year was barely beating BYU. They're truly happy about that.

Christy B
Salt Lake City, Utah

ute4ever

How entertaining was it to watch Utah play in the couch potato bowl?

With Utah's ability to lose to practically anybody on your schedule, your margin of error is much smaller than you think.

What's truly laughable is Utah only won six conference championships in the WAC/MWC conferences COMBINED, yet Utah fans are so arrogant that they thought that Utah could step into a power conference andt start winning conference championships left and right.

From 1965 to 1991, Utah didn't win a single WAC championship. Arizona has been in the PAC 10 since 1979 and is still looking for its first Rose Bowl. Don't be too surprised if Utah is still looking for its first Rose Bowl 25 years from now.

You do realize, don't you, that Utah will actually have to beat a conference opponent with a winning record in order to win a conference championship?

statman
Lehi, UT

Given games and probabilities of winning of:
@ VirginiaW60%
Texas L40%
Utah W60%
Middle TennesseeW95%
@Utah StateW66%
Georgia TechW65%
@ Houston W60%
Boise StateW60%
@ WisconsinT50%
Idaho StateW99%
@ Notre DameL33%
@ Nevada W75%

Conclusions:
Probability of going undefeated (regular season): 0.26%
Probability of double digit wins (regular season) = 10.9%
Probability of going to a bowl (at least 6-6) = 91.66%

Specifically:
Probability of 12-0 = 0.26%
Probability of 11-1 = 2.24%
Probability of 10-2 = 8.41%
Probability of 9-3 = 18.13%
Probability of 8-4 = 24.98%
Probability of 7-5 = 23.08%
Probability of 6-6 = 14.56%
Probability of 5-7 = 6.24%
Probability of 4-8 = 1.76%
Probability of 3-9 = 0.31%
Probability of 2-10 = 0.03%
Probability of 1-11 = 0.001%
Probability of 0-12 = 0.000008%

You can argue with seed probabilities, but the rest is simple math.

Given my seeds, BYU has about a 92% shot at going bowling next year. Anyone saying they won't is nuts...

965
Sandy, UT

6 recruits re opened recruitment instead of going to BYU.

They obviously have some inside information and made a smart decision to jump off the SINKING SHIP.

Good luck on that 10-2 record with a first year starting QB Yners.

Bwahahaha

plyxply
SLC, UT

This is a great schedule. For years everyone talked about how BYU and Utah would do against a tough schedule and now we'll get to find out.
While I don't expect either BYU or Utah to win more than 7 games, and likely fewer, at least we get to see them both play great competition and can hope for the best.
USU will once again be the best team in the state, but I'm excited for all three teams in 2013.

rafinsure
Elk Grove/U.S.A., 00

Coach Mendenhall and his staff are going to have to figure out how to win the big games. It doesn't matter how broad the Cougs fan base happens to be, ESPN is not going to renew its contract with BYU with predictable wins and losses. If the 2013 season is worse than last year's, Mendenhall is going to have to go and take the firesides with him.

Razzle2
Bluffdale, UT

As a die hard Ute, I am so excited for this BYU season. For the first time, I am glad to be in different conferences, so I can go rabid for both teams.

Truth Machine
Salt Lake City, UT

965

What inside information?

That if these recruits went to Utah they could count on spending the holidays with family and friends?

btw, where'd you get idea that Travis Wilson was a first year starting QB?

More of your supposed "inside information"?

LOL!

Thinkman
Provo, UT

Very balanced, BCS-esque schedule.

Canyontreker
TAYLORSVILLE, UT

Oh, finally I love the November schedule. Way to finish hard. Hopefully we will have a game in Provo next year though.

caleb in new york
Glen Cove, NY

statman - interesting analysis. I think, however, your odds are overly optimistic for Utah, Boise St., Wisconsin, and Nevada. Maybe underly optimistic for Virginia. But probably still pretty goods of going bowling.

Mountainman56
Alpine, UT

I quit reading and posting on this board for a long time because I could not care less about the Utes but every article published about BYU ends up becoming a childish argument about whether BYU or Utah has the better program. Ute fans, seriously, don't you have anything else to do with your lives than come here and try to disparage BYU? Pretty pathetic really.

Now that I've gotten that off my chest, what a great schedule for BYU this fall. This is exactly what we were promised when we went independent and now we have what we've been hoping for. This may not be the year but if we can keep putting together schedules like this, one of these years we'll have a special year and beat most if not everyone on the schedule and that will make everything we've been through worthwhile. Can't wait till football season. Go Cougs!

BigCougar
Bountiful, UT

The ONLY thing I don't like about next season's schedule is the bowl game. If we win 9 or 10 games on that schedule that's a great season and it will seem pretty anti-climactic to have to then go to the Kraft Food Fight Hunger Bowl and play a lame Pac12 bottom feeder. The Pac12 sure has some lousy bowl tie-ins.

The A Game
Logan, UT

Beware the Idaho State Bengals. I heard ISU is easily going to break top 10, without question. BYU is going to need all the luck they can get to come out with the win against one of the nation's top performing football programs in American history.

skywalker
Palo Alto, CA

BigCougar

Come to San Francisco and enjoy a fun bowl and great city. Forget all of the bowl hype about which bowls are more "prestigious".

We had a great time in San Diego last month.

Frankly, outside of the National Championship game, hardly anybody except for fans of the teams involved even remembers from year to year which teams played in which bowls.

For example, without looking it up, can you tell me who played in the Holiday bowl in 2010?

Uteology
East Salt Lake City, Utah

Chris B:
If you do better than 1-4 against Texas, Boise, notre dame, Utah, and Wisconsin..

IdahoCoog:
Christina... against Texas, Boise, notre dame, and Wisconsin, Utah wouldn't win a game. Not one!!!!!

----------

LOL... even BYU fans concede beating BYU isn't a problem for Utah.

Note the Cougar fan didn't include BYU in his list of guarantee loses for the Utes.

Naval Vet
Philadelphia, PA

Duckhunter:

"From a fans perspective going to SF or SD for a bowl game is definately [sic] superior to going to el paso."

Except for when your opponents in SF or SD are also-ran mid-majors, whereas one's El Paso opponent is a team from a relevant conference. Because THEN it's definitely INferior.

mussingaround
Palo Alto, CA

Naval Vet

"Except for when your opponents in SF or SD are also-ran mid-majors, whereas one's El Paso opponent is a team from a relevant conference."

LOL!

BYU stomped the "team from a relevant conference" that pummeled USC in the Sun Bowl this year.

and

#35 Tulsa, BYU opponent in the Armed Forces bowl, was ranked higher by Sagarin, than either of last season's Sun Bowl participants - #39 Utah and #56 Ga Tech

You need to open your eyes to see how utterly meaningless conference labels are when determining how good or bad any particular team is.

WAC teams Utah State and San Jose State both finished in the Top 25 in 2012.

Pre-season #1 USC didn't even make the Top 25 and was pummeled in their bowl game by a team that BYU easily handled on the road.

WhatsInItForMe
Orem, Utah

Hasn't anyone noticed that most of the games, including some BCS games, are during the warmer months, and only one (an easy win) is in the colder November? This is a home-game ticket-holder's dream!

And, if BYU can win all of its November games in 2013, they'll likely be either undefeated or only have one loss against Texas. Either scenario could get them into a BCS bowl IF Texas also is top-5 ranked, because BYU's SOS for the year WILL be high, and thus they'll be pretty highly BCS-ranked.

gdog3finally
West Jordan, Utah

@Duckhunter

There are Utah fans speaking of PAC 12 championships and Rose Bowls. So what! They are a small percentage even though most of us hope for the best in that regard. Still, it's not like your so called life mission of correcting hypocrisy in Ute fans is worth the trouble. There's just as many BYU fans speaking of national championships and undefeated seasons as possible, if anybody, including Cosmo plays QB over Riley Nelson?

How's that for an indignant meltdown? I don't mind you said that actually. I think you were half joking, but even the serious side of that label deserves some specifics on my end. I mean you said "if I made similar comments you would meltdown". What are those comments? Be fair Duckhunter.

Here's how I see it. I make tons of comments. I pump up my Utes and find fault as well. I say things about BYU that could be viewed as critical or unpopular. But I also give many compliments BYU's way. Right, wrong or in between on my takes, I speak my opinions with the intent of having a sincere take.

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