"Because Gallup’s polls usually take large sample sizes, statistical
variance alone probably cannot account these sorts of shifts. It seems to be an
endemic issue with their methodology.To be clear, I would not
recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider
it — but consider it in context.The context is that its most
recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national
polls about the campaign. It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and
everyone else is right than the other way around." NYTimes By NATE SILVER
As several have said, tracking polls really aren't relevant to the masses,
though they make for interesting reading and they fuel discussions like the one
in this comment thread.On the other hand, tracking polls (albeit
much more detailed ones than we ever see) mean a lot to the candidates, mostly
because give the candidates (actually, their campaign management) information to
help them shape their campaign strategy going forward.I predict that
this "horse race" will end up going right down to the wire, and the
eventual winner will be the one whose campaign most effectively allocates their
"ground" and "air" game resources in the swing states to get the
biggest bang (based on the polling data), thereby shifting the electoral math in
their favor.Just my $0.02 . . .
And here it is: A Government Of Obama, By Obama and For Obama What happened to
Salsa Libre,You're joking, aren't you? Truth is truth.
Water freezes at thirty two degrees no matter what side you're on.Obama either increased North American oil production, or he didn't.
He's either responsible for oil pipe line capable of circling the world, or
not. He either knows about fast & furious, or doesn't. Terrorist, or
video. Cutting the deficit in half, and lowering unemployment to 5.2%, was not
the truth or opinion. No matter what side you're on. This is informative,
Yeah, let's look at that second debate. From 2 snapshot polls (CNN and
CBS) on their debate performance immediately after it ended:CNN
poll, Romney:- led by 18% (58% to 40%) among registered voters on the
economy- led by 3% (49% to 46%) on healthcare- led by 7% (51% to
44%) on tax issues- led by 23% (59% to 36%) on solving the national
deficit/debt- led by 3% (49% to 46%) on overall leadership ability-
led by 11% (49% to 38%) on who has a "clear plan to solve the country's
problems" Obama's only lead was +2 on foreign policy (49%
to 47%)CBS poll, Romney:- led by a whopping 31% (65% to 34%)
on issues pertaining to the economyDid Obama speak smoothly and
passionately during the debate? Yes, he did. However, it was Romney who is
REALLY connecting to voters on the issues that matter.With 25
MILLION people either out of work (12+Million) or working only part time (13
Million), gas prices skyrocketing, home energy costs going sky high, food prices
way up and no REAL plan to fix things, get ready to say "President
Romney".Romney, and simple common sense, 2012
Past history show the majority of those polls always lean democrats and the
actual data today shows a huge oversampling of democrats for any poll that still
shows it close or with Obama leading slightly. Gallup is known as one of the
most accurate and unbiased polls! The last time Bush won all those other polls
had him losing in a landslide as many of the left slanted poll agencies try to
affect the outcome of the vote making you think the conservative candidate is
going to lose big so don't even go out and vote, or in this case that the
liberal candidate is really so close (when he is not) in hopes that more of
their party will get out and vote to try to make up the difference in a close
race that really is not that close. 4 more years of the same? 6 trillion in
deficits (Greece here we come!) We have less jobs today than when he took
office, fast and furious scandals hidden by executive order, Libyan embassy
scandal about the true cause of that terrorist attack for 2 weeks to cover his
horrible lack of security when more had been requested!
Yup, the election is over. Romney won. Right.
I'm not sure how much stock to put into the polls. My relatives in
Colorado receive 1 to 2 calls every single night from pollsters wanting them to
answer questions about who they support and why. They participated in a few at
first, but are now tired of the nightly interruptions and just hang up when a
pollster is on the phone.
AggieloveCache county, USA"Lds liberal.Would
you be happier living in Oregon rather than Utah?I mean, your liberal by
screen name.Seems to me you would hate Utah."Ah, regional
conflict! Don't you love it? Utah and Oregon. What a choice. Oregon -
Home of Liberals. Utah - Home of Conservatives. Or is that just an assumption?
Remember, Utah does not vote 100% Republican. Sure, it's a conservative
place. Rather entrenched, if you mind my saying. But there are attractive
things in Utah just as there are in Oregon.Have you ever been to
Oregon. Beautiful. And a coastline to envy. Not like California. Not like
Florida. But wonderful. Then there is Portland. And you're
next door to Washington, another beautiful state will lots to offer. Finally, there's Hawai'i. The jewel. God's gem. It makes
Utah a backwater with its snow and cold and desert. Peace,
brothaMahalo nui loa. A hui hou kakou.
I have never read a newspaper more in favor of a political candidate. I
don't live in Utah but I am amazed by what is obviously a newspaper playing
the part of a cheerleader. I am sure it is no coincidence that Romney is Mormon
and the paper is church-owned. One poll means nothing.
Spring Street,Actually, the Gallup Poll does state that Romney is up
by 6 points, not the 4 that you suggest the Gallup Poll actually stated. The DN
is indeed correct.
I like the idea of the electoral college. It gives small states some clout.
That is a good idea. But with all this emphasis on swing states, the small
states are still getting left out. If you live in Utah, have you ever seen an
ad for a presidential election on TV?If we got rid of the electoral
college it would drive the superpacs nuts. They would have to advertise
everywhere rather than concentrating in just a couple of places.
worf Mcallen, TXThe problem with current partisan politics where it
all appears to be strictly split down the middle, you keep insulting 50% of the
American people. That means that for every comment you or another conservative
makes, there is someone on the opposite side of the political divide who
disagrees with you.Your Perry Mason analogy was interesting until
you started talking about "truth". Remember, your partisan
"truth" is not shared by those on the opposite side. They also have
their "truth". With the way things are, this is insolvable unless you
really want to sit down and have a discussion with all the fact set out in
front. Sourcing the right-wing noise machine, the Romney campaign, and wingnut
talking heads does nothing for this 50%.Questioning Obama's
truthfulness is fine. However, there is much to question about Romney's
truthfulness. I guess the election is the only way to decide the issue. But
remember, you're not in the majority.
I once knew a person who loved watching Perry Mason. This person didn't
know what the story was about, but enjoyed how Perry would close the case with
good rhetoric.The same with politicians. Most people judge a debate by how
aggressive the candidates talk, but with little understanding of what's
going on in the country.I guess that's why some people feel
Obama won the debate. Except Perry Mason spoke the truth.
For all of you getting all worked up about polls or even the electoral votes,
which are no more than polls at this point, know that polls are simply a drop in
a very big bucket of the actual amount of voters and are not a very good
indication of anything that will happen in November. Quit bickering about
irrelevant statistics. They simply don't matter.
While this poll is good news for Romney, it is best to remain cautiously
optimistic. Polls are regularly wrong. The real question is how many voters
will Obama bleed between now and election day. His policies haven't done
him any favors, and he won't end up with 53% of the vote this time around.
But can he keep hold of enough to get him past November? That remains to be
@Hutterite: With all the things Obama has done to this country, like Useless
bailouts, not keeping promises about bringing the economy back to health after
the democratic congress under Bush crashed it, not fixing the housing market,
not fixing unemployment and etc etc at infinitum, how can you hope he has a
second term? Upon what do you base your comment? Makes no sense. All he did
as president was increase his net worthby $10,000,000 while denegrading the rich
(except himself) and saying they should share the wealth. Do you think he will
share his wealth? I think not. He has trashed our country's credit
rating, and the national debt is astronomical. He spend extreme money on
companies, not from the United States who were supposed to have green energy.
They failed. Why in the world would you want four more years of the same? Are
you just an old Democrat who won't switch party lines no matter what?
If spin doctors can fix the problem, Obama will win.
What is it exactly, DN, that Obama has to come back from? Do you not recall
that President Bush one the election over Gore while losing the popular vote?
Is this supposed to be a real news story or something to fire up the base?
Polls are not the final numbers as everyone knows and with the electoral votes
based on polls is no better than polls. The people that say they are undecided
either at the town hall meeting or at the University of Utah, as students, are
probably not undecided at this late stage. A few debates showing the two
running for President in the next four years is not going to make a difference
for most of them. Some of the questions of the quote-unquote people last night
were not indicating to me that they were undecided. Sort of like the moderator
who is supposed to be an unbiased journalist with those type of standards
definitely appeared to be tilted toward Obama in how she handled the process.CNN and PBS are definitely not middle of the road organizations,
especially since PBS is linked to federal funding to run its operations. She
was quick to protect the President and that is not what she is supposed to do.
The President didn't want to have to answer anything on Libya and she
handed his response on a silver or golden platter. I am satisfied
with Gallup, more professional pollster than newsmedia.
Lds liberal.Would you be happier living in Oregon rather than Utah?I
mean, your liberal by screen name.Seems to me you would hate Utah.
If Romney were a democrat, they would be using language like "landslide"
to describe this lead. I don't like to count chickens before they hatch, so
to speak, but Obama better bust out the November surprise here in October,
because it may be too late by November! With one more debate left to go, maybe
he better call it in sick, because he drops 4 percentage points after each of
them. If he keeps it up, this could get ugly by 11/6. I'm sure he will
carry at least one more state then his own Illinois, but it's starting to
look bad for him. He is looking as pathetic as desperate as Walter Mondale and
Al Gore, the worst "almost" Presidents we ever had!
Counter IntelligenceSalt Lake City, UT"We can only hope
(and vote)"What excitement! Romney must be up by 75% with
"undecided" Utah voters. Is there a "Utah undecided voter"? With
a state which votes very heavily Republican for the last 50 years, having
undecided voters is a bit of an oxymoron.
RedSalt Lake City, UT"Voter Fraud will give it to Obama."If you don't succeed . . . blame the other guy!Of
course, it doesn't say much to add: There has not been one shred of
evidence that voter fraud has ever been made. Many of the people supporting
voter suppression legislation say they support it because they believe voter
fraud may sometime be introduced into the voting system.If elephants
could fly . . .
These polls don't mean anything. Don't pay attention to them.
That Gallup poll may look great, but look at the crosstabs of how it's
broken down:East: Obama +4Midwest: Obama +4West: Obama
+6South: Romney +22Basically, what that means is that Romney
has a massive lead in states like Mississippi, Arkansas, and Texas, which were
never going to vote for Obama and which he doesn't need to win. The only
Southern swing states are Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, and Obama could
lose all three and still easily reach 270 electoral votes. If Romney were
really 6 points ahead, the state-by-state polling would look massively different
(Even today's Rasmussen has Obama up by three in the swing states) and
Republicans would be sending manpower and funds to states like Minnesota,
Michigan, New Mexico, Oregon, and Pennsylvania. Needless to say, they
aren't.There's going to be all kinds of crazy polling (one
even has Obama up by 2 in Arizona), and this is one of them. Look at the EC
map; Obama still has the advantage (And we haven't even seen last
night's debate show up yet...)
I agree with at1134, the polls mean nothing, all Obama needs is for Romney
voters to feel their vote is not needed. Every Patriotic American needs to stand
up, speak out and vote to defend The Constitution of the United States of
Romney-Ryan 2012 by a landslide. Inside the privacy of the voter's booth,
common sense will come forth and the American voters in the majority will do the
right thing if they believe in the future of this country. We only have one
clear choice and actually only one chance to get this right or this country is
doomed. Four more years of the nightmare we have all lived through the past
four? NO!God bless America!
Hopefully, everyone who reads the Deseret News reads other new sources as well.
The DN's pro-Romney bias is so extreme that if you only rely on their paper
then you are going to get an inaccurate picture. Romney has made a lot of
progress during the last few weeks, and could pull off a win, but odds are still
Obama has this one in the bag ya'll!
I trust Mitt Romney much more concerning the economy. He will do a much better
job. We need smaller federal government and lower taxes. We need Mitt Romney
National polls don't matter. In all probability, it will all come down to
what Ohio voters think. If Romney goes up by 6 there, I'll then become
So I just went and read the actual poll and low and behold once again the DN
gets it blatantly wrong. Romney is actually up by four not 6 and the margin of
error is 3. while interesting hardly the commanding lead (especially given other
polls results) that the article writer would make it out to be.
These polls do not count anyhow. On the ground counts, turnout counts, no apathy
counts. Come out in droves, over broken glass to vote out every Dem , Obama and
liberalism. For liberalism is the real enemy that has made this nation: Greece
and put us in danger domestically and internationally.
Unfortunately, the popular vote does not determine who is elected President.
Please remind us of the probable electoral votes.
How does Romney win on nearly all individual issues, yet lose the debate? The
only way is that Obama was about 1000 times better than he was in the first
debate. So, it looks like he won the debate just based on his own glaring
performance improvement. I suspect that if Obama had shown up and even tied
Romney in the first debate, it's very possible that the second debate would
be perceived as a tie, if not a victory for Romney.1000 times zero
is still... zero, and Obama has no vision or plan for growth. All he has is the
demonization of Romney. He counts on gullible people believing a lot of
distortions and outright lies. Unfortunately, there are a lot of those people.
We need President Obama to win. Unless the future holds some sort of scrap in or
with Iran. Then WiMiRo can have it.
I'm not sure what it means to be untruthful during the debate on issue
after issue and then be called the winner? The winner of what? Obama was
untruthful about the oil and gas lease cancellations on federal land and he did
not tell the truth about the embassy mess. I really doubt this CNN poll has much
credibility since anyone who hasn't been living on Mars for the past month
knows the ugly mess regarding the Embassy attack and coverup especially since
the congressional inquiry is still on going.This last debate didn't move
the needle at all for undecided voters - if anything it moved in Mitt's
direction since he clearly won the economy portion.
Wow. I didn't know we elected presidents by popular vote. @Red"Voter Fraud will give it to Obama."Care
to cite some examples of how that will happen?
If polls don't mean or show anything, then why is the media and this barrys
regime spending soo much time airing the numbers?We know how much
numbers can be fudged. Just look at how unemployment has dropped in the last two
months. As barry would say the math doesn't add up. When the number of
jobs created grow at a slower pace than population growth, you're not
getting ahead.Maybe barry's thought is the same with the debt.
The more debt you accumulate the better off you are. But then again the man said
he doesn't even look at his finances because a net worth of $11 million
isn't worth keeping an eye on.Then again when your base is
mostly clueless, welfare dependents you don't have to worry about tough
questions. You just need to drink a beer with them, tell them jokes and smile,
and say everything is alright as he squeezes the remaining life out of the
nation.That is change alright. Just the wrong kind.
I know not to fully trust polls, but one can only hope for the sake of this
great nation that this poll is indicative of what Election Day will be.
This:"In two minutes, let's freak out about the Gallup
Tracker that includes basically no post-debate data," Slate's Dave
Weigel tweeted.It's a statistical tie, anyway. The only good
these number games are doing is to give pollsters, statisticians, and pundits a
Voter Fraud will give it to Obama.
The "polls" are paid for by the media who wish to disseminate their
information. Up until a week ago they pretty much "polled" in favor of
Obama. After the poor debate performances by the administration in both the
first presidential debate and the v.p. debate they could see that they would
need to change their "polling" numbers to reflect reality or lose what
little credibility they had left or no one would believe them much.Did you know: 91% of people called - hang up? So, in order to get 900
responses they (theoretically) call 10k people? Much of how they
"weight" the responses are proprietary, (much like Google)but we do know
that they extrapolate (guess)based on past elections. They have mostly been
using data from the 2008 election rather than the 2010 election which,
obviously, would be "weighted" towards Demo. victories.I'm a Romney supporter, but I still don't trust the "polls"
much - until the day after the election.
I messed up the order there, Obama leads in Virginia (by 0.8%) so that should go
before Colorado on my list. Point is, he can lose two states he current leads in
(NH and VA) and a state he trails by less than a point in (CO) and still win the
election so any declarations of Romney winning are definitely premature.
(That's not to say Obama will win, I think Obama is only a narrow favorite
to win, just anyone declaring victory right now is being ridiculous).
Watching Polls is like driving down the Freeway looking in the rear view mirror
- they only tell you about what's behind you [last week's news], not
what's current or right in front of you.Meanwhile - Here's
the ONLY poll that matters:Obama = 294Romney = 254270 Electoral College votes needed to win.
Gallup got into trouble earlier with the Obama Administration for releasing
another unfavorable poll about this race. The liberals should have listened to
Democratic strategist James Carville last year when he had just one word of
advice for President Barack Obama: Panic.
We can only hope (and vote)
Absolutely not too large. Rasmussen has Romney up only 1. IDP/TIPP has Obama up
2. Gallup is a pretty large outlier right now and none of any of these polls are
based on respondents after this second debate which kinda matters since all
polls say Obama won that debate. The Real Clear Politics average of polls (which
includes Gallup) has Romney up 0.7 points. It wasn't too large for a Romney
comeback when Obama led nationally by 4 so a 1 point Romney lead sure isn't
too large for an Obama comeback. Plus it's the electoral vote
that counts and at the moment Obama leads in the RCP average 201-191. Tossups listed in order of Obama's lead/trail are Pennsylvania (O+5.0),
Michigan (O+4.4), Nevada (O+3.0), Iowa (O+2.3), Ohio (O+2.2), Wisconsin (O+2.0),
New Hampshire (O+0.8), Colorado (R+0.7), Virginia (O+0.8), Florida (R+2.5),
North Carolina (R+4.7). So down the list. Obama has 201. +PA 221.
+MI 237. +NV 243. +IA 249. +OH 267. +WI 277 and the win. All states Obama's
Let's hope that is a big enough gap for real change to happen:)