Published: Thursday, Jan. 24 2013 12:00 a.m. MST
Rape is the reason people should have guns?And yet, today people
talk about banning abortion and birth control.
"Gun bans take guns out of the hands of law-abiding citizens and therefore
embolden criminals"Bummer, you were doing so well until you
stopped citing statistics and started running wide with your own interpretation
of them. You don't know that Australia's gun ban led to an increase
in these incidents, that is just as much of an assumption as the one you wrote
in to complain about. So no, statistics don't lie, but you've shown us
how to lie with statistics.
The trouble with "statistics" is that you can find them to support just
about any position you want to take. perhaps the writter will tell us where he
got his "statistics" so that his comment may be properly evaluated.
It took me about two minutes with Google to discover that the
"statistics" used in this letter don't tell the whole story about
U.S. vs. Australian violent crime rates. Trends in violent crime, how they are
reported and how the statistics are compiles vary greatly around the world.
This is a highly complex subject.There's no shortage of right
wing web sites pumping this "Australian rape rates went up after their gun
ban" meme, but none of them address long term trends or differences in how
these crimes are reported through the years.The only honest thing
you can say based on a comparison of violent crime statistics between nations is
that it is unclear what effect gun control legislation has had in Australia, and
it is equally unclear how similar legislation, if adopted here, might effect the
Well, if Stats dont lie, here is some moreFrom the Drudge reportAnd today, there is a wide consensus that our 1996 reforms not only
reduced the gun-related homicide rate, but also the suicide rate. The
Australian Institute of Criminology found that gun-related murders and suicides
fell sharply after 1996. The American Journal of Law and Economics found
that our gun buyback scheme cut firearm suicides by 74 percent.In the 18
years before the 1996 reforms, Australia suffered 13 gun massacres -- each with
more than four victims -- causing a total of 102 deaths.There has not been
a single massacre in that category since 1996.Few Australians would
deny that their country is safer today as a consequence of gun control.
Nobody in power is talking about banning guns They only want to ban the sale of
certain types of guns, which is entirely different.
Could ypu give a reference for your statistics? The U N rape numbers on
Wikipedia tell a different story about rape. It lists the United States as
having a rape rate of 27.3 per 100,000 women, while Australia has a rate of 8.1
per 100,000 women.Gun controlled Canada has a minisule rape rate of
1.7 per 100,000.(All stats are from 2010 numbers.)
"Statistics don't lie" is truly one of the most uninformed and
uneducated statements "ever" made on this thread. Statistics do lie.
In fact they lie more than they tell the truth. This happens for many reasons
and the complexity of real life situations is one of the prime reasons they lie.
They don't measure what they say they are measuring. If you want a good
primer of statistics and the value and problems of statistics read Nate Silvers
new book.Statistics have value and can be valuable, even in cases
predictive. However, there use is very tricky and the blanket statement that
statistics don't lie is about as far from the truth as one could get.
""Statistics don't lie"But sometimes they
don't tell the whole truth either. I was forwarded a note from an aunt of
mine which made similar clames... problem is when you look at the charts
provided, one quickly notices the r2 numbers. These numbers denote the
confidence level in multi-varient analysis. The numbers were increadably low
for the corrilations - meaning the level of confidence in those numberes or
direct causal impact was really loose. In our work, .8-.9 is a
minimum to make a decicsion on. The one number, deaths by knife or other sharp
object had a rating of .11. In a statistical realm, that is a garbage
number.The other thing with these numbers listed is none were crimes
per 1,000, but just raw data, which had no growth in population factored in.
They are very misleading.So yes, sometimes numbers don't lie,
but they don't tell the whole truth either.
"Have murders increased since the gun law change, as claimed? Actually,
Australian crime statistics show a marked decrease in homicides since the gun
law change. According to the Australian Institute of Criminology, a government
agency, the number of homicides in Australia did increase slightly in 1997 and
peaked in 1999, but has since declined to the lowest number on record in 2007,
the most recent year for which official figures are available.Furthermore, murders using firearms have declined even more sharply than
murders in general since the 1996 gun law. In the seven years prior to 1997,
firearms were used in 24 percent of all Australian homicides. But most recently,
firearms were used in only 11 percent of Australian homicides, according to
figures for the 12 months ending July 1, 2007. That’s a decline of more
than half since enactment of the gun law..."(Factcheck)
Figures don't lie, but liars can figure! Any ban on the ability of the
citizen to defend themselves will lead to governmental abuse. Ask the Jews in
Germany (those still alive) what they might have done had Hitler not banned
private firearms.. Ask the dissenters in China what they might have done had
Mao not banned private firearms.. Ask the ones banished to the Gulag in Russia
what they might have done had Stalin not banned private ownership of guns. And
no, I don't condone mass murder in the schools or malls, suicides, or any
other non-security or hunting use of firearms. I merely point out that the
purpose of the 2nd amendment was to ensure that a corrupt government could not
enslave its citizens.
One of the first and fundamental things I learned in my statistics class is that
CORRELATION DOES NOT PROVE CAUSATION. Unfortunately, most people who cite
statistics to "prove" their point forget this basic principle.
Re:DougSThe Jews could've held off the Germany army, when many
other countries couldn't?The facts:As World War I
drew to a close, the new Weimar Republic government banned nearly all private
gun ownership to comply with the Treaty of Versailles and mandated that all guns
and ammunition "be surrendered immediately." The law was loosened in
1928, and gun permits were granted to citizens "of undoubted
reliability" (in the law's words) but not "persons who are
itinerant like Gypsies." In 1938, under Nazi rule, gun laws became
significantly more relaxed. Rifle and shotgun possession were deregulated, and
gun access for hunters, Nazi Party members, and government officials was
expanded. The legal age to own a gun was lowered. Jews, however, were prohibited
from owning firearms and other dangerous weapons.
I've said it before; stats are almost useless in this argument because
everyone has some that support their position.Instead of changing numbers, I
think we have to change attitudes first, and the way to do that may be to make a
legislated statement that says there is a limit to how far the secocnd amendment
can be pushed.
It the words of the great Mike Ditka "Statistics are for idiots".
DougS, Sorry, but arguments such as yours, commonly made, only
illustrate that paranoia and emotion are what drive them - not rational and
reasonable thinking.We do not live in a dictatorship, as we are
painfully reminded everyday by gridlock in Washington. Should a
tyrranical government suddenly arise here in the US, and turn against the good
people, our guns will do little to protect us from their air force. So in the
spirit of the Second Amendment, I suppose the good and righteous potential
defenders among us should be acquiring anti-aircraft rockets?
Australia uses a very different system for gathering crime statistics than that
one used in the US. In the US, rape statistics are based on police reports. In
Australia, even calling in a threat counts as 'rape.' The correlation
described here is based on false assumptions.
@DougS"I merely point out that the purpose of the 2nd amendment
was to ensure that a corrupt government could not enslave its citizens."That arms race was lost a century ago. I have yet to see small arms fire
bring down drones, destroy nerve gas or protect against being heated to the same
temperature as the surface of the sun for a small amount of time.If
you think an AR-15 is going to help you against the weapons your government can
wield prepare to be very briefly disappointed should you want to stand against
Austraila rate #43America rated #57Israeli rape rate (#6) is
far FAR higher than Autraila -- and have guns.BTW - Islamic contries
have the lowest Rape rate in the world.=========Blue
Ribbon comment of the day goes to:SteveDNorth Salt Lake, UTIt the words of the great Mike Ditka "Statistics are for
idiots".9:41 a.m. Jan. 24, 2013
It is amazing to me how many posters become statisticians when the numbers do
not support their narrative. Yet many of these same posters often cite
headlines and anecdotal information to support their beliefs. They quote polls,
and very selective stats to promote their worldview all the time. Then they
condemn the writer for drawing a conclusion. One poster even sited some dreaded
statistics to draw a totally opposite conclusion. My favorite is the
misdirection of talking about "suicide rates" or "Gun Violence".
These sneaky little terms that make what they say somewhat true but not
applicable to the argument at hand.I suspect that the resultant
"truths" lies not only in the statistics but also in the questions being
asked, the language we use, and the conclusions we want.I support
keeping arms from those who are a danger to society. I support the idea of
securing our firearms against theft and the subsequent misuse. In my opinion,
misguided gun advocates making showboat displays of their rights do more damage
to our cause than any anti-gun advocate does.I believe that the
strongest argument for our 2nd amendment rights is the original stated
purpose...to prevent government tyranny.
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