I guess the writer never checks weather forecasts since there's uncertainty
there...Anyway, Silver was 49/50 last presidential election, and
appears to be 50/50 this cycle. You can say he's not doing much, but he
sure beat the heck out of all those silly pundits and especially that funny
"unskewed polls" site that had projected a Romney win.
What we did find out is that Rasmussen polls did over state Romney's
position by cherry pickeing "likely" voters. That whole process of
trying to figure out who will and will not vote is nearly impossible. This time
Rasmussen was off by 3%. In the real world, not that much... but they boast so
much of their superior modelling, it is good to see them brought back down to
earth.Just my opinion.... it is accurate plus/minus 50% of the time.
Well, oops! I guess Nate Silver is not such an idiot after all.
Maybe Nate Silver would be better served by handicapping horse races. My guess
is that Obama will win, but how can you put a number on just "how sure"
you are. Voters still have to turn out and you never know exactly what
Methinks Michael Gerson doth protest too much. Time will tell if Nate
Silver's careful analysis of the polls is valid. Provided that the
Republicans are unsuccessful in their despicable efforts to suppress votes, I
suspect he will be proven correct. We'll know before long now.
WE all want to know who won the election before the election happens. Also, we
all look for confirmation that our guy is ahead. Pollsters are free to do what
they want, but I think polling has gotten a little out of hand.
Nate Silver is a product of a great Mathematics education.Imagine what
could happen if Nate is correct, and Obama is the winner of the 2012
Election!Math teachers will finally receive their due, and an exciting old
career may become new and exciting to those who have chosen to pursue teaching
for their college education.
I'm guessing that Gershon would be singing a different tune if Nate Silver
had shown Romney with the advantage.