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Comments about ‘BYU notebook: Bracketology still has Cougars in the tournament’

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Published: Monday, Feb. 27 2012 1:30 p.m. MST

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Vince
the boonies, mexico

Get real D-News, there is only "1" team in this state deserving of an NCAA bid this year and that is Weber State, the rest should just go away quietly!

schmoobielover
Logan, UT

Vince,
Tell me, how did Weber St. perform against BYU this year? I admit Weber St. does deserve a bid. I'd love to see them surprise some #2 or #3 seed and advance. They're certainly capable if Lillard plays an amazing game. But you need to show just a little respect to a team that completely humbled Weber State this year. Sure, BYU has shot itself in the foot a few times this year (USU, Loyola Marymount), but I still think they deserve a bid... especially if they win a few games in the WCC tournament.

factcheck
Salt Lake City, UT

Obviously the NCAA selection committee looks at a number of things to determine who is in and who is out. It is always interesting to listen to their responses when someone from ESPN or CBS asks them why this team is in, this team is out, this team is seeded higher than expected or this team is lower than expected. There are a couple of things that could hurt BYU.

They look at the body of work, but they built their NCAA resume with Hartsock, if he can't play well or at least look like he will be back by the NCAA tournament, it could hurt their seeding or even getting in. It happens every year. The biggest example would be in 2000 when Kenyon Martin got hurt. Cinn was the best team in the country, but got a #2 seed.

If BYU loses in the first round, they are 50/50 at best to get in. It would depend on what the other bubble teams do. If they lose in the Semis to Gonzaga, they will get in and would get that #11 or #12 seed. Maybe even the #12 play in game. If they beat Gonzaga but lose to SMU, I think they get a #9 or #10. If they win the tourney over SMU, they are looking at a #7-10 seed.

The tricky thing that no one is mentioning is what happens is SMU gets beat in the Semis by LMU or SF? What if that same team wins the tourney? LMU/SF would get the auto bid, Gonzaga and SMU would get 'at large' bids and BYU would be NIT. I even think there is an outside shot that the WCC could get 4 teams in. If BYU makes the final and loses to LMU, what happens? LMU would have an automatic bid, but does BYU get left out with 2 wins over Gonzaga? That would make BYU 2-3 against Top 20 RPI, 2-5 against Top 50. (unless Nevada or Oregon ends up in the Top 50) Still kind of hard to leave out a team with 2 Top 50 wins and take 3 at large PAC 12 teams that are all 0-4 or 0-5 vs Top 50.

baller
Buena Vista, USA, VA

Vince,
94-66 was the final score of the BYU-Weber game.

CougFaninTX
Frisco, TX

This could be an interesting WCC tourney.

St Mary's is not playing their best ball of the year right now. The possibility of LMU of SF knocking them out of the semi's is not that hard to imagine.

However, BYU is not playing their best ball either. They should get into the semis with or without Noah, but if Noah is not at 90%+, the Cougs chance of getting to the finals is slim.

If Noah is healthy and the Cougs can hit 30%+ from distance, they will get an upset or two.

TrueBlue
Orem, UT

Vince

"there is only "1" team in this state deserving of an NCAA bid this year and that is Weber State"

Based on WHAT?

WSU's head-to-head match with BYU?

BYU 94 Weber St 66

or

Weber State's higher rankings?

Pomeroy/Sagarin/RPI Rankings
BYU #38/#49/#35
WSU #121/#75/#112

or

Weber State's superior record against RPI Top 150 teams?

BYU 10-6
WSU 2-3

Weber State is deserving of an NCAA tourney bid, but the only way the Wildcats will be dancing is if they win the Big Sky tournament.

BYU still has a very good chance of getting an at-large bid if the Cougars beat Gonzaga in the WCC semi final.

CO Ute
PARKER, CO

@factcheck - you make some logical points but got a couple of things wrong depending the the rating service used. Granted there are multiple sources but Sagarin has UW 2-4 against their top 50. Arizona is 1-3. Cal is 0-4. BYU is 1-5. All three of those teams have a better strength of schedule than BYU and all are over 20 wins. Even Oregon, which isn't in the picture right now, has 20 wins, a stronger SOS and is also 1-5 againt the top 50. You can argue this 50 ways to Sunday but don't be shocked if the PAC 12 gets 3 teams in the conference.

SLC BYU Fan
Salt Lake City, UT

The biggest knock against BYU this year for attaining an at-large bid is being WCC as opposed to MWC. As terrible as the Pac-12 is this year, they will get more teams in than the WCC by being the draw that they are. A 25 win BYU team not getting into the NCAA will only help fuel the fire of the administration to push for a Big 12 invite for all teams. A BYU team this year might only be .500 in Big 12 play as opposed to .750 in the WCC, but like the Pac-12 the big 12 can have a much higher priority in bubble at-large aceptence into the tournement as well as higher seeding. The WCC isn't a good long term fit for BYU anymore than football independence.

MiP
Iowa City, IA

Gotta admit, I like factcheck's post. It's like he stole the words right out of my mouth.

However, I think there is little chance of LMU or SF winning the WCC. The committee sweats every year about some "nondeserving" team getting the auto bid and yet those folks are fairly few in number. The vast majority occur in one-bid conferences often edging out decent-but-hardly-locks competition.

Sure, should the unlikely happen and one of those teams win it, the WCC "might" get 4 teams in, but conventional wisdom says otherwise on both accounts.

Otherwise agree on your assement.

Honor Code
Denver, Colorado

When does the NIT "Fantasy Pick'em" start? BYU one and done!

DEW Cougars
Sandy, UT

@Vince

Remember, Veber State have to win their tourney to get in. So, lets focus on that first and good luck.

BYU will be ready if they want to as a team not selfish. I say tone down on those 3 lands if those shots are not going in. I know nothing about Noah condition at this time. We will see by Friday.

Funny how people say where BYU going to be seeded. You guys are thinking too far ahead of yourself. Jerry Sloan would tell us that we will face anyone and play hard no matter who they are.

factcheck
Salt Lake City, UT

Hey CO Ute. Thanks for the 'corrections' You are sort of changing the criteria. The selection committee uses wins against Top 50 RPI as a major factor in selecting at large teams. Funny that you bring Oregon into the conversation. You do know BYU hammered them on a neutral court...right?

Look at realtimerpi or even use CBS Sportsline RPI, which is what the committee will look at. It does have Oregon at 47. That gives BYU that second win and if BYU Beats Gonzaga they will be 3-5 against Top 50 (2 of those wins over Top 25) How many Top 25 wins does the entire PAC 12 have? '0'

You said UW has 2 Top 50 wins. Top 50 RPI wins? Against who? Even if you count Oregon, who they split with, they are 1-5. If you count Oregon, you also have to count them for BYU making them 2-5. Then Arizona's only win is against Cal. Outside the conference, the PAC12's best win was Stanford over Colorado St, a bubble team.

Washington(52 RPI) vs Top 50 RPI:
St.Louis LOSS
Marquette LOSS
Duke LOSS
Cal LOSS

Arizona(67 RPI)
SDSU LOSS
Florida LOSS
Gonzaga LOSS
Cal WIN

CAL (36)
Missouri LOSS
SDSU LOSS
UNLV LOSS

Oregon (52)
Vanderbilt LOSS
BYU LOSS
Virginia LOSS
Cal LOSS
Cal LOSS

MESOUTE
SLC, UT

First off, congratulations to the Cougars who were honored by the WCC today.

Objectively speaking, I am not convinced that BYU should be in the tournament this year. They have won a lot of games, but have only 1 quality win at home versus Gonzaga (who I don't believe is a very good team). Of course if they beat Gonzaga at the neutral site in Vegas that changes things (in which case I think the Zags should be dumped), but as of today there are not any quality wins for this edition of the Cougars. They lost to Wisconsin at a neutral site, lost at home to Baylor, and beat a horrendous VA Tech team on the road. Perhaps Oregon could count as a quality win but having seen them play at the Huntsman Center this year, they are middle of the road. The bad losses are USU, LMU at home, and the fact that they didn't beat either of the two top teams in the WCC on the road. I also think the SMC game at Provo was a disaster for the way they got manhandled but that's just me. Not saying that BYU is not a good team, they are. But I don't see the case for them as an NCAA tournament team this year with zero impressive victories to their credit. If I am wrong, please correct me and tell me which wins are quality wins.

phantomblade
Salt Lake City, Utah

Honor Code

"When does the NIT "Fantasy Pick'em" start? BYU one and done!"

Utah is one and done for the last seven years, COMBINED!
Colorado State hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since 1989
Utah State hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since 2001
and
Wyoming hasn't won an NCAA tournament game since 2002

Those who live in glass trailers shouldn't throw stones.

CO Ute
PARKER, CO

@factcheck

Might I suggest you closely read my post before going crazy with a reply. Yes, I am changing the criteria. The point of the post was to look at another source and clearly noted in the first sentence. I was also very clear in that the records quoted were based on the Sagarin Top 50 (not the RPI top 50) so many of your other questions are moot. These are not my counts, they are directly from Sagarin. Again I suggest to you read the post before questioning the accuracy of my comments, especially when the source was clearly qualified.

Yes, I fully understand that the selection committee uses RPI which is why I never give the opinion that specific teams will or will not get bids. I mention that Oregon wasn't in the picture because at the time of the post, none of the 'bracketology expects' predict them to get a bid. That could change very soon.

I think you may have assumed that a post from a U fan would automatically be negative to BYU and basically ignored a lot of clearly defined comments. Read the post and look for any language that says BYU will/won't get a bid or that the PAC 12 teams are/aren't stronger than BYU; it isn't there.

My point is that based on record, record against top 50 teams, and strength of schedule (an important criteria used by the committee which you conveniently ignore) there are 4 teams in the PAC 12 that are similar to BYU. Don't to be surprised if 3 PAC 12 teams get bids.

factcheck
Salt Lake City, UT

CO Ute: I did read and thought I understood what you were trying to point out. Sorry if I missed your point. I also think you may have missed my point.

You keep bringing up record against top 50 teams. My point is that when someone on ESPN, CBS or whatever so called expert talks about tournament resumes or wins against Top 50 they are talking about Top 50 RPI NOT Sagarin's ratings. The difference is Washington may be 2-4 against Top 50 in sagarin, when in fact they are 0-4 vs Top 50RPI and that is what the committee looks at.

I get your point about SOS and how 4 teams in the PAC 12 have similar resumes to BYU. My original post was just pointing out that BYU's resume will have '2' wins over Top 50 IF they can beat Gonzaga. (actually they will be 2 wins over Top 25) BYU would be 2-5 vs Top 50 RPI compared to WA 0-4, AZ 1-3, Cal 0-3, Oregon 0-5. The 4 PAC 12 teams would only be similar to BYU if they DO NOT beat Gonzaga a second time. If they do, then the resumes are not close, BYU will clearly have the better resume. That being said, you are correct, I would still not be surprised if the PAC 12 gets 3.

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