@ uteowl,Good assessment of the superconference landscape. Many
probabilities, and none are sure.I agree that BYU's inclusion in
superconferences is more in doubt if there's four 16-team conferences than if
there's five 14-team conferences.But, for the 14-team scenario to
work out, the Big XII has to retain itself in some viable fashion, but not in
promoting a bunch of mid-majors. The Big East and ACC are going to get combined,
either way.I have my doubts about the Big XII's future existence.BYU might need to enjoy its independence for some time to come. And, I
think it could work out okay for BCS bowl inclusion. BYU has enough
"friends" in BCS schools to keep its SOS viable.
Should BYU be among the 64 have's when it get to that point? Most likely. Will
they? I firmly believe that unless they get into one of the have's BEFORE this
all shakes out there is serious room for doubt. 4x16 conference
alignment means that there will be at least two current "have's"
getting left out in the cold. We all know that one of those teams is going to
get the boot in favor of ND. For BYU to get in 2 more haves would have to go.
Which two? Which of the four remaining conferences (SEC, B1G, PAC,
ACC/Big East) would be a good home for the Cougars? The PAC is out.
Right or wrong, it wont happen. That leaves the B1G? The SEC? The East Coast
Conference (ACC/BE)? Therein lies the rub for BYU. Regardless of their
worthiness or not, where will they end up if theyre on the outside looking in
when this avalanche starts to fall.If the Big12 doesnt stabilize to
maintain the status quo (keeping the Okies and adding BYU) the best case for BYU
is five 14 team conferences where four teams have to be ADDED.
ModerateWhat makes you so sure that the new major college football
paradigm won't morph into one football-only 64-team superconference with four
divisions and that the new superconference won't pick and choose which schools
get invited, and which schools are left behind?I know the BYU haters
are desperately hoping that BYU gets left out of this 64-team pipe dream, but
anyone claiming to know how conference realignment is going to play out is
As for Texas, their TLN is a pretty big problem with Pac membership (plan D).Then again (plan C), Texas and Beebe (with Baylor's blessing) might make
sudden offers to Big East and ACC teams to make a 14 or 16 team Big XII
superconference. It'd take at least 7 to 9 teams to do that. Tough road, that
one!So, maybe plan "E" would be to join the ACC? Could
happen.I'd think independence is better than that. Wouldn't be
surprised to see them go indy. At least for a year or two.Texas made
their TLN bed. Now they have to sleep in it.
Doesn't matter what pundits say about the Pac-12 staying pat at 12, Scott isn't
dumb enough to think that if they don't accept the Oklahomas that the Pac-12
will still have viable options to expand when the remaining "major"
BCS conferences expand to 14 or 16.Scott's smart enough to know that
the Oklahomas and Texas's are the four best options for Pac-12 expansion. He
wasn't hired by the Pac-10 to sit on his thumbs. He'll convince whoever needs
convincing to accept the Oklahomas' bids for Pac membership.Texas
A&M's move to the SEC ensures superconferences. At 14 each, the Big XII
could be one, but at 16 each it won't exist as a BCS conference anymore. The
numbers and teams don't add up in their favor at 16 teams each.Dominoes started falling last year when the Pac-10 tried to expand to 16.
Superconferences are inevitable now.
10CCIn a decade, BYU will still be a perennial Top 25 team in
whatever form major college football takes, and Utah fans will still be throwing
childish jabs at their big brother and pretending that Utah's mid-2000's heyday
is still relevant.
At this point it would be an embarrassment to OU to stay in the Big-12, given
the numerous statements they've made in the media. Oklahoma and OSU will likely
head to the PAC, with Texas & Texas Tech joining in a few weeks, after
considering other options. Baylor, Kansas, K-State, possibly Iowa State are
headed to the BigEast, perhaps including Baylor, which has been working on the
BigEast as their Plan B.There will be litigation, threats of
Congressional intervention, with the Super64 providing a path into their
playoffs for non-64 teams, pretty much like how the BCS system works now. There
doesn't appear to be a path for BYU into a super conference, their tradition and
fanbase and ESPN contract not withstanding. The most likely fit would be the
ACC, and 2000 miles from that ocean may just be too far.In a decade
the separation between Super64 schools and those left behind will be more
"All five men included BYU, Notre Dame and Boise State in their list of 64
teams."That's sweet. But they are unlikely to take the list of
64 deserving teams, and turn them into conferences. Surviving conferences will
maintain membership. It is unlikely that the SEC kicks out Vanderbilt, for
example.Conferences also tend to organize geographically, east to
west. If the Pac-12 take 4 of the Big 12 teams, they're full. There will be no
room for Boise State and BYU."That's OK," you say
"we'll just take the next conference over." That would be the
crumbling Big 12. Color it gone. So you'll join the B1G or SEC, you think?
Uhhhh.... no. Those will fill up with the remains of the Big 12 and Notre
Dame.BYU remains independent, and Boise State will annually earn the
"play-in" game (the 65th spot) in the tournament.
Oh Boy! Another attempt by cougar fans to turn this into a feel good story. Arkansas told the Big 12 no. And there are also reports that BYU said no to
joining as well. But go right ahead and hitch your cart and desires to
join an imploding conference.
Interesting that Texas AD is very opposed to going independent and is not
viewing that as a good option.
BYU won't be left out but why should they choose to join another conference?
They've got at least 8 years of time to explore this, they don't have to be in a
rush to do anything right now, especially as it looks like they're wanted. Wait
it out and the pot will sweeten...schools like Mizzou will NOT rest if they have
to come down to an AQ conference like ConfUSA or MWC...ESPN.com is
reporting this as of an hour ago:Big 12 athletic directors were
given a list of schools to contact a few weeks ago once it became clear that
Texas A&M would be departing the conference for membership in the SEC. Arkansas and BYU were contacted
Much to the chagrin of our resident BYU hater, the Cougars will not be left out
of any superconference realignment.The five men who cover college
football for Rivals dot com have wildly varying viewpoints about which 64 teams
they think should be included in the superconferences, but one thing that all
five agree on is that BYU's commitment to competing at a high level in football
and a history of such commitment have earned BYU the right to be included in any
64-team superconference realignment (see "Superconferences: Which 64 teams
belong?)All five men included BYU, Notre Dame and Boise State in
their list of 64 teams.Teams left out varied, but included Duke,
Indiana, Vanderbilt, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest,
and Washington State.
When byu football is left out of the 4 superconferences and becomes the
equivalent of san jose state in level of relevance - now that will be a good
day. The pieces are falling into place.What good is your ESPN
contract when all future BCS games/possible playoff games are determined by the
4 superconferences? Answer: not muchYou'll be fighting
for the 2 star recruits at that point.