Comments about ‘Utah Jazz: Jazz dominate Mavs, prepare for Kings tonight’

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Published: Friday, Feb. 6 2009 3:28 a.m. MST

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JazzFan

Go Jazz! I agree with Jerry, this intensity needs to be there every night. If we are healthy for the playoffs... Watch out!

Nostrildumus

The Jazz proved me wrong in spades. They came out with intensity in the 1st quarter and never let the Mavs have their way from 3 point land. Great win, I was a doomsaying naysayer. I'm ashamed. (not really)
This proves to me though that as least some of the overall poor performance for the year ties into lack of intensity. They came out last night with no intention of walking off the court with a loss. May be Sloan needs to alter that starting line up for good.

Go Jazz!

What do you know, Korver starts, the Jazz have a great start to the game, and Korver finishes with 20 and 9. Korver is a great asset to have on the team when used properly, but unforunately I don't think he is most of the time. Hopefully the Jazz can beat Sacramento tonight, and get over the terrible back-to-back woes the have been having. I keep hoping there will be a turning point in the season, and I am keeping my fingers crossed that this is finally it. Go Jazz!

John Wicks

Jerry's philosophy of no starter loses job because of injury has now got to go this late in the season. What a difference with Kyle and 9 boards to boot. It's time for Sloan to swallow his thoughts and do what't best for the team.

W&L Team

I am reporting the results of analysis I did on the first half. I ran a t-test on the wins and losses. This is what the team did differently (sig at .05).

FG 3.5 more in Ws
FGPer 3.5 % better
3A 2.3 more
FTs 3.9 more
FTA 4.2 more
TotRB 3.8 more
PFs 2.6 less
Points 9 more

T-test only tell you if there is a statistical difference between the Ws and the Ls. They do not tell you why. I will post more later on why. T-tests compare averages. That can mask important anomalies or special situations. The test for general tendencies.

kbriggs

I loved seeing Korver in the starting lineup. He was a monster on the boards and he seems to have come out of his slump. Maybe he is a better starter than a bench player. Would love to see him stick in that starting five.

Dapper2k

I think the NBA needs to do away with back to back games. The product on the floor the 2nd night is poor at best.

Great win for the Jazz and I'll take it but I'm worried about our engergy tonight as we will be the ones on the second day of the back to back.

Team Regression

To see what "caused" the differences in the Wins and Losses I ran a stepwise regression with points differential as the dependent variable. In other words I used the stats from the box scores to predict/explain the margin of victory or loss.

The adjusted R sq was .794. About 80 % of the scoring difference is explained by 6 of the box score stats.

The equation is Scoring Diff = .319 FGPer + .299 TRB +.477 OppTOV -.403 OppFGPer - .383 OppTRB -.371 TOs

I reported the standardized beta's. FG percentage, rebounding and turnovers are key reasons the Jazz win or lose. The other offensive variable are not real difference makers. On the defensive side the key variables are opposition turnovers, opposition FG percentage, and opposition rebounding.

Rebounding is the place where the Jazz could most easily improve their chances of winning. Both Fez and K2 are excellent rebounders. Turnovers are another area that the Jazz could improve in without player trades.

Many things affect FGPer.

Player differences in W&Ls

I ran t-tests on each player to see what they were doing different in the Ws and Ls.

Okur: In Wins: FG 2 more, FG% 13% better,3p about 1 more, 3p% 34% better in the Ws. As we will see later Okur's play is the primary difference in whether the Jazz Win or Lose. If the Jazz had an adequate replacement for Okur on nights when he is not playing well they would win a lot more.

I think Okur is doing the best that he can to carry the team. However, he was never designed for that role. His role was to compliment Boozers style of play. The Jazz are asking Okur to do something that is beyond his capability. I blame management for not getting an acceptable back center like Mutumbo.

Good News

Miles will be back in the lineup tonight,Korver back to the bench where he belongs

Brewer ,Williams and AK

Brewer's only significant difference is in DRBs. He gets about 1 more in Ws. His play tends to be pretty consistent on average. However, his win scores compared with last year are down.

Williams gets about 3/4 of an ORB more in Ws and about 1 and 1/2 extra TRBs in Ws.

AK has 1 extra 3 point attempt in Ls, almost 3 extra DRBs in Ws and 3 extra TRBs in Ws. AK rebounds much better in wins.

Korver has an extra 1+ FT and an extra 1 and 1/2 FT attempts in Ws.

Knight's FG % is 7 % points better in Ws.

Price gets about one extra FT in Ws.

Fez has 2 extra fouls in Losses. Note the sample size on Fez is less than 30. So this result may not be accurate.

The rest have no significant differences in the way they play in Ws and Ls. They are consistent in the way there play across games outcomes.

Note: number of FTs may be controlled by the refs on the road/home. AK, Brewer and Williams account for 5+ extra RBs in Ws.

PurplePeopleEater

Sloan needs to rethink his bench. Korver gives the Jazz a much needed 5th wheel that Miles doesn't. Miles is more athletic than Korver, but no where near as smart and experienced. The latter two always trump athleticism. Price vs. Knight proves that.

Too bad Price injured his thumb. That'll probably leave us without four 1st/2nd string players for tonight's ill-fated back-to-back/road game. With the way the Jazz have been playing defense of late, maybe there's still a chance. The Kings are a shell of their former selves, so who knows.

D-Will has taken it upon himself to be the team's Iverson. That might get us a few wins, but will wear him down. But that's probably okay for now because of the All-Star break coming up. GO D-WILL!

RE: W&L Team

What kind of a t-test did you run? What data did you enter, and did you do it by hand or with a stats software? Also, was there equal sample sizes? Just curious.

RE: Good News

Are you freaking kidding me? Did you notice the energy Korver had out there? Did you notice how well the team meshed WITHOUT CJ Miles? That guy is ridiculously overpaid, and he ridiculously underperforms!

Houdini

Hey anyone seen Miles? he`s not over in the corner sulking cause Korver had a great game, is he ???

what a dif

Having korver in the starting five gave us a true shooting guard and an aggressive small 3, which miles does neither of and at any amt of $ is getting overpaid. Korver defense and rebounding is better this year, give him some time on the floor and he nails key 3's. Loved seeing it!

Players "cause" score difference

I ran a regression on each player to see what they did that would impact team scoring differential (how much the Jazz won or lost by).

Okur's adjusted R sq was .47.

His regression equation is SD = -.439 TOs -.391 PF and .353 3P%. In plain language if Okur is turning the ball over, gets in foul trouble and is missing his 3s the team is in trouble.

I suspect that the differences in stats stems from who is guarding Okur or how he is being guarded. He has trouble with athletic centers.

Williams The only variable that emerged was ORBs. If Williams gets offensive rebounds that increases the winning margin. For AK it was DRBs, SAP it was assists and Knight it was FT%. There were no sig. predictors for the other players.

These are the key behaviors by each player that affected the winning margin in the games that they played (of the first 49 played).

Keep in mind that the sample sizes are small.





Xente

Good News, are you serious? Miles is an inconsistent one-trick pony. I have been wishing Korver would start in Miles' place all year and it's no coincidence what happened last night. Korver needs to get into the flow of the game and it's much easier as a starter. Coming off the bench, especially with our depleted second unit, he is a focal point of their defense. He has to fly off a screen and shoot in the blink of an eye to get his shot off. With the starters, the floor opens up and he gets better spacing/more time to get set and get a good shot off.

Anonymous

WL Team
All the stats you are doing have already been done on ESPN - Hollinger and 82games

I hope you are not spending too much time

@W<eam

I ran the standard independent sample t-tests in SPSS PC using Ws and Ls (dummy code) from the first 49 games. I imported the data from the game logs at 82games into excel and then into SPSS. I had to recode some variables to numeric (home or away). I had to compute score difference. The sample sizes differed by the number of games each player played. All reported had more than 30 observations (except Fez, who I ran just to see what I would get).

The analysis could have been run with Tukey t-tests but I doubt if the results will change. Given the sample sizes this approach will only find fairly strong effects.

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