Deseret News | Recession predicted to end this fall

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Recession predicted to end this fall

Fat chance! | 2:33 p.m. Jan. 9, 2009

The U.S. economy has been destroyed by outsourcing. Industrial plants ended up overseas, thanks to the idiotic (and intended) policies of the government and the greedy American entrepeneurs jumped to the chance. It costs them a lot less to have slave labor produce their goods instead American workers! According to the internationalists, the U.S. standard of living must be reduced to that of the third world, so that we can comfortably merge into a one-world government, according to the creeps, such as Kissinger, Brzcinsky, Zoellick, Perle, Bush, Cheney and the whole bit and caboodle of globalists! And we are well on the way! The world including the U.S.,is in a crisis made by the international bankers!

RE: Fat Chance! | 3:06 p.m. Jan. 9, 2009

Hey, go back to your pessimistic cave and hole up with your guns and food storage. The rest of us will work on getting things fixed and let you know when it's safe to come back out.

future | 3:36 p.m. Jan. 9, 2009

"It really won't be until 2011 before we begin feeling much better about the health of the economy."

Well, Republicans, there you have it. Obama and the Democrats will have another four years after 2012. It won't be until 2016, before you have a real chance, since Obama and the Democrats will be credited for the recovery, even though it's a natural trend for a recession ... barring a scandal that might unseat Obama, of course.

Comments continue below

Fat chance replies | 5:17 p.m. Jan. 9, 2009

How do you want to fix the problem? With extra trillions of paper money? Some day this "money" won't be worth the paper it's printed on!

GTO | 10:38 p.m. Jan. 9, 2009

Even if the economy gets worse, the liberal press will spin it that Obama has saved the economy. Wait and watch it happen. Every economic indicator will be down, but on the news you will hear about how wonderful things are now that Obama is in the White House.

tj | 1:20 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Do Americans remember Ross Perot speaking in 1992, urging voters to listen for the "giant sucking sound" of American jobs heading south to Mexico and other countries should NAFTA be ratified. The reason America was so strong in the 50s and 60s were Tariffs,and fair trade policies. Are we better off now that these things are made by foreigners? Are we better off now that we have ceased to be self-sufficient? Are we better off now that the real wages of our workers and median income of our families no longer grow as they once did? Are we better off now that manufacturing, for the first time in U.S. history, employs fewer workers than government?
How many more jobs will the American people lose before we demand accountability from our politicians over NAFTA and other free trade policy's. All those arguing for Globalism will be out of a job soon.

To TJ at 1:20 a.m. | 2:15 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Take some econ courses. At worse, it will at least give you more concepts to cite.

Anonymous | 3:26 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

SO what you are saying is that we Screwed?? I was just layed off because NO ONE wants to buys showers, windows or any sort of glass...or the fact that my boss is too cheap to pay for advertising..BTW I was a glass man (no windshields. Wish me luck..I am the only one that works in my family...Wife has to take care of baby...14.00 per hour was barley making us breath above water...300 per week un-emplyemt I am rich now!!

Then we go in to a depression | 4:44 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

These economist are paid to make these predictions, and very well too. The next step for america is a serious depression because nothing is changing in how the financial industry and corporate america are doing things. Corporate america keeps trying to ram debt and credit down our throats to supplement low wages and inflation cost. The american people are being forced in to government dependence and socialism to benefit only the wealthy and rich wall street moguls. Our government leaders, including Obama, are on the way to destroying the american way of life and our constitutional rights. We are already a third world country where we have to import all our goods, just as any 3rd world country does. We have the resources but that is all exported and we get to import it back in products that are being affected by the devaluation of the dollar. Our money doesn't even have any backing and our good faith money is monopoly money now. These economist are talking about the recession being over for corporate america with handouts and bailouts. The american people are being offered indentured servitude (debts) in hopes we succomb to the will of government.

yes | 7:18 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Yes, the recession will end someday. Maybe after a great depression? Or after a whimpering along?

Yes, it will end.

Of course, listening to "economists" predict anything is kind of like listening to a drunk driver explain to you how to drive the interstate.

If they are so bright why did they miss the coming event.

Yeah, I thought so.

JMT | 8:02 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Many good points to discuss.

First, while employment in manufacturing is at an all time low, manufacturing output has continued to grow over the last two decades. We are a more effecient, educated and automated work force. To measure our productivity by number of jobs in manufacturing doesn't tell the whole story. Measure output.

My only real thought on this gentlemans prediction is similar to man-made global warming theories. Weathermen have a 50-50 chance of getting the weather right next week, why do we think they will get it right next year. Same with economists.

Admitted, they can trend but outside of big trends it is virtually impossible for any economist to predict the exact month the recession ends.

And as far as trending, virtually all economists were predicting many months back that we would be much more solid today. The blew that one.

Just as man-made global warming theories did not get it right since world wide temps have been going down since 2001.

What this economist can predict is that Obama's big boost of funny-money will cause inflation. And his massive increases in government regulations will cause job growth to stagnate or go overseas.

Easy enough.

to tj | 8:14 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

There may be validity to what you are saying yet globalism is less of a government policy than something being fueled by demand. Americans love cheap stuff. WalMart is not the world's largest retailer for nothing. Our culture tends to favor quantity over quality. We'd rather buy more cheap disposable junk than save money to buy quality items. Publicly traded companies are under legal obligation to assure the highest return on investment for thier investors. That means costs must be cut in order to sell increasingly cheap junk. We can't produce stuff in the USA that cheaply.

WalMart has failed in only one country so far: Germany. In my international marketing class we learned that German customers demand quality more than any other industrialized nation. Coincidence?

Perhaps we'd better work on our education system and bring it up from third world standards. Then maybe we'll begin to understand how our behavior affects the bigger picture.

WHinIdaho | 8:41 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

It seems that we as a society have determined an entitlement approach to many things we do, including how much money we should have for how much work we do. I am always amazed at the argument of American jobs and where they have gone. There are residual effects whether they stay here and are manipulated by unions or go elsewhere. A union job destroys other jobs because of the ridiculous levels of pay. So which is worse, the lack of jobs (and companies) because of the cost of union workers, or the income outside of the United States. We have created much of this with greed! I realize there are many factors, but this is a big one!

to tj | 8:47 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Look up the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. Higher tariffs really helped in 1930. Really helped us to 30% unemployment. Tariffs fell dramatically in the '40s and '50s, and prosperity resulted.

KM | 9:01 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

We live in such a pc world that the politicos have decided that in order to help the poor around the world, we should become just like them. In this way we will all be poor together and "all will be right with the world."
PS have you noticed how many Walmarts there are in your neighborhood. Talk about outsorcing. While every-other merchandiser is going out of business, they are growing, and they are grownig on the backs of slave labor in China.

Wow! | 9:08 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Zandi the soothsayer has spoken. It must come to pass! This guy thinks that because he has his degree in economics and can look at past charts, he can for-tell the future? I think I will follow my gut, and my gut tells me we are in for a rough ride.
What, with the socialist in power in our once great democratic republic. All the incentive to be creative and take risk will be gone. It will be gone with our economy that was once the envy of the world. We no longer produce things, why should we? where's the incentive? So we can be taxed at a higher rate to redistribute the wealth to those with no drive to excell!!!

We created it | 9:59 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Many Utahns will disagree with this economist's statement that "the economy did not come from Heaven, we created it." Our free market worshiping neighbors believe the law of the supply and demand is inspired, the market will magically correct itself and a good economy is a gift to the chosen if they are righteous. I hope we can finally get our feet on the ground and realize that regulation is necessary to control the greedy and that we work for what we get, not leverage the hard work of others, within and without our borders.

SS | 10:10 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

To: Fat Chance

Don't forget in your list of those who destroyed the economy to include Barney Frank and Chris Dodd, who took millions in campaign money from Freddie and Fannie, then, as chairs of the banking and finance committee, put their heads in the sand as this whole thing unraveled. Kinda reminds you of Bill Richardson's disastrous stint as Clinton's Sec'y as Energy. That was so bad, his political career was pretty much ruined (except for in his home state of New Mexico, where he can still sell his snake oil).

Oh, and let's not forget Clinton who pressured - no, forced - banks to change their lending standards to loan money to people with no credit or intention of paying back the money.

And to you all, I would say the consumer will decide when this recession will end. Like the weekly "storm of the century," the media jumped on this thing and scared everyone into a frenzy. If I don't buy your product, you don't buy someone else's and pretty soon, we're all out of a job. But that just makes even more headlines for the media! Anything for ratings!!

Anonymous | 11:02 a.m. Jan. 10, 2009

These things ARE cyclical.

Get out of debt ... | 12:31 p.m. Jan. 10, 2009

... stay out of debt.

Hyperinflation | 1:06 p.m. Jan. 10, 2009

So, hyperinflation will begin on Sept 15, 2009? Thanks for the heads up. Stock up now, October isn't looking good.

Brother Chuck Schroeder | 5:50 p.m. Jan. 10, 2009

HERE's what the NEWS media and Press is not telling you, now why is that?. The crisis culmination of some 5,000 years of silver mining and consumption is a stunning bonanza for those who saw it coming and took positions before silver went into orbit, silvers rapidly expanding mushroom cloud tops out in the stratosphere, and casts an immense shadow over world markets. Real estate prices have started a steep decline. Distinguished professors of economics at super rich sponsored universities begin writing scholarly articles for arcane journals with tiny readership as to why the cataclysm in silver and gold prices has happened. Financial commentators for CNBC tilt their heads like bewildered puppies as they make remarks concerning how they just don't understand why precious metal should have ever appreciated. A previously unknown, self constituted expert a la Martin Armstrong will charge that Comex silver was all moved to London, where it is so abundant as to be coming out of the cracks in the pavement; yet United Kingdom manufacturers are on a rationing system. The voice warns that silver is in danger of falling below the price of manure but the marketplace screams otherwise.

tj | 6:37 p.m. Jan. 10, 2009

I would like to respond to the guy who told me Tariffs do not work. What has his free-trade globalism given us, but $5 trillion in trade deficits and a new dependency on foreigners for the necessities of our national life and the loans to pay for them? Look at what is happening in other counties-

Indonesia is slapping restrictions on at least 500 products this month. Russia is hiking tariffs on imported cars, poultry and pork.Officials in Argentina and Brazil are seeking to raise tariffs on products, from imported wine and textiles to leather goods and peaches. India has levied a 20 percent duty on soybeans to cut imports and protect her farmers.

Give America a chance to compeate. Am I in direct compitition with Chinese who make 32 cents an hour?

Bro Chuck's Rant n Rave's | 6:48 p.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Throughout the year, and especially over the last several months, the rare coin market has shown its mettle in the face of one of the worst economic downturns this country has ever seen. As stock values and home prices have fallen drastically, rare coins have not only survived, but have remained quite strong, and in the case of Gold, flourished. Fittingly enough, Gold Spot reached a two-month high this week, settling at $835.40. Week after week, premiums over melt remain at unheard of levels, as many buyers feel more confident with physical precious metals than with paper investments in the current environment. Confidence clearly remains low for such non-physical markets, and efforts continue in the US and around the globe to address the problem, at least in part, by freeing up credit and thereby stimulating the movement of money. To that end, the Fed wrapped up its December two-day meeting, and decided to lower the federal funds rate to an all-time low of 0% to .25%. This is the first time a range, rather than an exact number, has ever been used. Platinum, a very important component of catalytic converters, hasnï¿½t fared as well as Gold recently.

jct | 11:01 p.m. Jan. 10, 2009

Don't forget Tax incentives for Companies that move to China and overregulation of Environmental rules that drive Business to relocate.

keepingyourdollars | 12:20 a.m. Jan. 11, 2009

Buy "made in USA". The trade deficits over the last 20 plus years have sucked the money out of this country and will continue to do so unless we get some balance. Raising tariffs is politically incorrect but if a movement can grow to buy products that are made in our great Country, We the people can make a difference. It's a cash flow no-brainer. If you get a cash outflow greater than the inflow for a long enough period of time then you get Bankruptcy.

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August Miller, Deseret News

Mark Zandi, an economist with Moody's Economy.com, speaks to Utah business leaders Friday at the Hilton, just prior to Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., who spoke after accepting the 2009 Economic Report to the Governor.