Deseret News | Hope for housing in Utah

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Hope for housing in Utah

BC | 6:02 a.m. June 7, 2008

The Cheif Economists for the National Association of Realtors denied the housing struggles in New England until it was so obvious that they should have all been fired. After that, they kept saying this is just a slow down that was only going to last until next month. A year later we still have falling prices.

I wouldn't trust any thing these guys say. His "not falling, just declining" comment put it over the top for me.

The housing problem in Utah may not be that bad after all, but I just wouldn't believe anything Yun says based on the track record of NAR Optimists... er I mean Economists. Why would the Association of Realtors report anything but optimism?

SLC | 8:10 a.m. June 7, 2008

Anytime an article begins by calling Yun a national Real Estate Analyst, we know we're in for some nonsense. Yun works for the NAR and hypes the market to anyone who will listen. When are we going to quit interviewing real estate workers for these articles? Yun insults the intelligence of those present at the conference when he says "it's not so bad here." Leaving it at that. He knows that it WILL hurt here.

And since when is 23% of mortgages being subprime in Utah considered "a small percentage?" I guess it's just how you look at it.

housing | 9:11 a.m. June 7, 2008

building and real estate is much worse in Utah than any national person can discribe..just ask some one that is in the building industry...I agree..we always asked the real estate people..why

Comments continue below

Yun: Chief Propagandist | 11:01 a.m. June 7, 2008

Anyone who has followed the housing boom and bust, as well as developments within the housing industry knows that Lawrence Yun is without question one of the most discredited, clueless and dishonest eCONomists in the country. The next is probably David Lereah, the previous chief eCONomist at NAR. As the president of NAR, Yun is essentially paid to lie and spin. These two give other economists a bad name.

This is the same Lawrence Yun that predicted that housing prices would rebound in 2007 and that no one could have expected what we are seeing in housing right now. The list of his ridiculous predictions and botched forecasts are lengthy. His quotes and predictions provide stand-up comedians with continual material.

Just go to the LawrenceYunWatch for some really good laughs!

Gus | 1:42 p.m. June 7, 2008

Rediculous

The real solution | 1:45 p.m. June 7, 2008

I don't like seeing "Hope" that it will get fixed. I like seeing housing IS getting better. It IS on the rise.

Enough talk, start showing us results, REAL ROCK SOLID RESULTS.

Ralph | 2:45 p.m. June 7, 2008

The % of total mortgages that are subprime is irrelevant. What is relevant, is the % of total mortgage loans EXTENDED over the past 5 or so years that were subprime. That number was in the 40-50% range. The housing industry was ramped up to deliver inventory to meet that demand. What happens when 40% of the demand is taken out of the market--OVERSUPPLY. The entire country, Utah included, will need a few years to absorp that kind of existing oversupply. I agree with all the readers who dissed NAR's economist--they are paid to NOT be objective in times like these. Yun would be looking for another job if he was anything but optomistic. I prefer realism myself.....we can't solve the issues until we confront them.

Jacob Eisner | 2:51 p.m. June 7, 2008

Look up "Lawrence Yun idiot" on Google and 42,800 hits come up. This guy is ranked among the most ethically compromised "economists" in the USA. Just look around your neighborhoods and anyone will conclude, we have a very serious foreclosure problem.

Discredited Hack | 2:57 p.m. June 7, 2008

You must be kidding! Go look at "Lawrence Yun Watch".
This guy is a used house salesman, nothing more.

Andrew | 3:31 p.m. June 7, 2008

If someone told me that my wages were not falling but declining I would be just as upset.

I'm just saying... | 3:59 p.m. June 7, 2008

N Utah is one of less than 20 metro areas in the nation that is not negative in appreciation. Yes it is a paltry 2-3%, but none the less not negative. I for one am happy that at least where I own homes (with large down payments and fixed 5.5% interest rate)we are not falling or declining. Many will say that we are just dehind the curve. Housing supply has been piling up in the east coast and areas like AZ and LV since 2005. I am hoping and believing that we are goiong to have a soft landing in Utah because of the solid job growth. I know you don't want to hear this, but negative veiws in aggregate do not help the economy. As strong a Republican as I am, I wonder if Barack O's positive and articulate attitude is what the US needs. I can't believe I just wrote that.

Tortured Statistics | 4:37 p.m. June 7, 2008

Everywhere I go I hear People talking about not being able to sell houses, builders going bankrupt. Just keep clinging to those rear view mirror stats on the Utah economy if it makes you feel better.

ParkC | 5:40 p.m. June 7, 2008

all of you are right...the housing market in Utah is about as stable as the wages. Lower and lower as the sub sinks.

Einstein | 5:52 p.m. June 7, 2008

To "I'm just saying..."
2-3% appreciation is negative growth when you are facing 3-4% inflation.

Jim Bob | 5:57 p.m. June 7, 2008

Welcome to Republican Utah! Don't ya just love it?

Down is down... | 6:24 p.m. June 7, 2008

"prices may be declining.." duh

Keep waiting | 6:29 p.m. June 7, 2008

Prices are down, and following CA and NV leads will continue down for several years.

Tiddley | 6:55 p.m. June 7, 2008

My buddy is a builder in N. Utah and really cut back in 2007 on building. He was lucky enough to sell the three spec homes he started building in August 2007, but he barely made any money on the last one (about $5,000). He's been smart enough to finance the building with a line of credit from the bank, but he tells me that the builders who take out construction loans on their homes are dying financially. There are some builders who have construction loans on 10 spec homes and they have to make monthly interest payments of about $1,500/home. So they are paying $15,000/month in loan payments and not selling any homes. Suffice it to say they are toast. Send back the SUV, send back the four wheelers, send back the jet skis, send back the big screen.

My opinion is that this housing correction will clean out the sloppy builders and leave the good ones (like my bro) who have a little financial stability and are able to weather the storm.

The banks have already begun to take the houses back and you're starting to see a lot of 50% finished properties for sale.

GOSH | 7:40 p.m. June 7, 2008

I don't trust him or any of his kind! They're always up grabbing for money... doesn't care about us homebuyers!

It won't be long | 11:54 p.m. June 7, 2008

and I'll be living down by the river under the bridge!

builders | 11:55 p.m. June 7, 2008

I hope you enjoyed it while it lasted.

Observer | 10:06 p.m. June 8, 2008

Lawrence Yun has no credibility. I'm surprised so many in this thread get it.
The amount of spin coming from the NAR is unfortunate. What a shame they aren't being honest with the public.
I'm seeing prices start to fall in my area (Summit County). It should get interesting in the next 12 months.

Some of us | 4:03 p.m. June 10, 2008

I thought you might enjoy the perspective of a "fence-sitter".
I am a well paid electrical engineer here in SLC. I am also a renter. I also have a very significant amount of money sitting in the bank that will someday be used as a down-payment on a home. But it will not be anytime soon here in Utah.
Those like myself have watched all of this take place and we have willingly and knowingly stayed out of the market. We've watched your home prices rise to ridiculous levels and we will now wait patiently while your home prices fall back in line with true demand.
The free money is gone folks. The banks are done letting you invest their money in real-estate. Without that free money, demand will fall.
I can rent in the most desirable parts of this valley for half the cost of owning and my money is earning more in investments than yours is in real-estate.
It is true that Lawrence Yun has so far been incorrect on every market prediction he's made. So if you want to be optimistic about housing, fine, but don't quote Yun. It makes you look stupid.

Adam | 9:31 p.m. June 11, 2008

I am another one of the thousands of fence sitters here in Utah. The market is crashing and I am going to kick back on the fence and watch it fall. Renting a brand new home for a fraction of owning. No sympathy for all of the greedy people that got fat during the housing boom, they will be living in a condo working at Wal-mart by the time this is over.

Builder | 1:04 p.m. June 17, 2008

Too bad I just found this thread. For the fencesitters: watch the prices in Utah go back up by next year and 2010 at the latest. You're currently missing out on the best buyer's market in 20 years. Excess inventory on the Wasatch front is falling almost 1000 homes/month, and will be gone by the end of the year. Adam, your crash theory is improbably with falling inventory. However, I completely agree about the greedy.

CPA/Real Estate Attorney | 10:39 p.m. June 26, 2008

Builder,

Are you in construction or economics? I am a CPA/Attorney (focused on markets and real estate) that has gathered and extensively analyzed data about the Utah housing market over the past couple of years. During that time, realtors, speculators, and builders have been telling me I am wrong. The funny thing is that I haven't been wrong once. 15 months ago I told everyone to get out, to stop building, to stop the madness. I heard the same old garbage - Utah real estate never goes down, it just levels off. Here is the real economic forecast from someone who is qualified to give it. The range (I give a range because no one can predict with complete accuracy - Well, except realtors) the market will be down 25 to 35 percent from its hight last summer. If the market falls only 25 percent (about another 15 percent to go) the it will do so over a 7 year period. If the market drops 35 percent it will be a shorter period like 3-5 years. The difference is due to inflation and wages coming up to meet the prices (wages increase further in 7 years).

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