Anonymous | 12:43 a.m. June 1, 2008
All of the speculation from Las Vegas and California creeped in to St. George too quickly.

Why would anyone pay the outrageous prices when they can build for cheaper? It isn't like they are running out of land and there is no where to build.

I see this as a good thing for the market.

Kind of reminds me of Eagle Mountain in Utah County.
Recession or Depression? | 4:04 a.m. June 1, 2008
I'm one of the "Dumb" people who saw this coming for over two years. I watched the Utah media pump this frenzy. People told me I was crazy and that Utah is "different".

It's going to get worse and the prices of the past will not be seen again for SEVERAL years, if ever.

Oh, and if the bubble prices return, gas will also be 6 bucks a gallon. In other words, the bubble prices will NOT return. The debt bubble has popped! "Get out of debt", now where did I hear that?
Greed | 7:08 a.m. June 1, 2008
Housing speculation and unscrupulous lenders have caused this problem throughout the country and it has been alive and well in Utah, especially in Southern Utah.

Hopefully we all have learned something from this tragedy. Pumped up housing prices have made life difficult for people whose salaries haven't risen with housing prices. Some can't stay in their homes, or now can't sell them except for a loss.

It is sad.
Comments continue below
Mike | 7:10 a.m. June 1, 2008
This fall in prices is essential for the middle class to be able to afford a home that isn't going to saddle us with huge debt-to-income ratios. The politicians want to get involved and fix the problem with subsidies, etc. That only helps the lenders to keep the loan amount high while the value of the home plummets. The only thing the government should do about this housing crisis is to protect the credit of those whose homes are foreclosed. That would allow the market to fall to where it needs to while allowing those buyers hit by the fall to still have an opportunity to buy when the prices get low enough. The median home price in St. George cannot continue as high as it is even now. People cannot reasonably afford a home. Let the prices fall.
Realist | 7:13 a.m. June 1, 2008
The mkt will come back.

Now if you would take notice at real estate mutual funds year to date, they are one of the few areas of the market that are positive.

Why?

Because people get over zealous then buy after things get hot then when the mkt crashes out on them they sell low.

Now is the time to buy.

Soon you might have already missed it!
Can you afford it? | 7:42 a.m. June 1, 2008
This article quotes, "'Before, I could qualify nine out of 10 applicants. Now, I can qualify one out of 10,' [a loan officer] said. 'You have to have a big down payment and really good credit to qualify for a loan now.'"

The fact that for so long banks and lending companies told a family making $45K/yr (with Utah's depressed wages) that they could easily afford a home priced at $300K or more, and the fact that the people bought into this, is the problem. It's sad many families are upside down on their mortgages, but what can you expect when you buy a home you can not afford?

I, for one, am happy lending companies are cracking down. As a country, we have decided we don't need to "save up" to buy anything any more. We just buy it and pay for it later. Our government operates in the same manner. Because of this mentality, our economy is on a down turn and getting worse.

There have been many who've told us to get out of debt, from financial advisers to religious leaders. Isn't it about time we listen. If you can't afford it, don't buy it.

Rob | 7:51 a.m. June 1, 2008
To the previous comment: What are you talking about when you say "That only helps the lenders to keep the loan amount high while the value of the home plummets" That is what makes banks loose money and makes them not want to lend which equals tighter lending standards.
The other comment: "The government should protect the credit of those whose homes are foreclosed" are you being sarcastic?
missed the boat | 8:13 a.m. June 1, 2008
I don't think that material for housing really escalated like people think but take the price of land and where it went. That is now the issue if the builders have purchased land at a high price how can they afford to build that smaller priced home. It isn't because they don't want to it is because the land they just bought can not be de valued
Richard | 8:15 a.m. June 1, 2008
Prices have a lot further to fall before this crisis is over. I want to buy a home in St. George area but I won't touch one until prices fall another 25%. Too many people bought at the height of the market and still expect to at least break even on their investment. They have lowered their prices some, but are still clinging to the hope that the market will recover quickly.

Welcome to the real world. Stocks bought at the top of the .COM bubble in the late 90's fell more than 50% (if you were lucky). Why shouldn't home prices do similarly?

I called on a building lot for sale last fall. The owner wanted $350,000. I laughed out loud (not to be rude, but I just couldn't help myself).
To Realist: | 8:24 a.m. June 1, 2008
You misspelled your "name". You meant to say "Realtor".

The only people who say "now is the time to buy" are realtors and people trying to sell their homes.

Anyone who buys now will see their investment fall another 20% or more once sellers realize the only way to compete with the foreclosure market is to drastically cut prices.
C1 | 8:25 a.m. June 1, 2008
We live in SG and just upgraded to a bigger home. Down markets are a great time to upgrade. We were lucky because we had been conservative from the beginning... eventhough we could have "afforded" more, we owned the smallest home on the street in a very nice area... there were 6 homes for sale on our street when we put ours up for sale in March. One of those six has been on the market almost a year. We were able to ask a reasonable price and sold our home for cash within 2 weeks of putting it on the market.

I'm so glad we were conservative in the beginning by putting down a good down payment and buying something small. We needed to upgrade to something bigger (really a need, not a want) and were lucky to be able to do it in this down market.

It was interesting reading in the article about those who are involved in the construction trade who built homes too big and now can't afford them or don't have work... the 6 homes for sale on our old street... 4 or 5 in that exact situation.
Laughable | 8:43 a.m. June 1, 2008
No formal education needed to see this was going to happen. Just drive around anywhere you want to in Utah and any other state and look at the homes, then look at the cars, trucks, Suv's, RV's, and many other toys with kids running all over the place. I personally have a very inexpensive residence in Washington county and a small home in northern Utah, but do you know what I don't owe one dime on either--SWEET SWEET. I live and have lived within my means, not the come my whole life. This whole adjustment will be good for everyone including the spoiled rotten young generation. Get a clue people, homes, vehicles, and toys don't make you better than your neighbor, or friends. Try living within your means for a change and put your life priorities where they should be.
Kevin In Taylorsville | 8:51 a.m. June 1, 2008
I think this trend will occur in northern Utah as well. Utah is NOT "different"! The same market forces that have brought down the market in other states(houses prices higher than median wages can afford, record forclosures, record listings, increased gas and food costs, etc.) will catch up to Utah. Now is a good time to buy but it will be better in a few more months.
Cedar Resident | 8:54 a.m. June 1, 2008
Growth is grinding to a halt as speculators leave Southern Utah yet the state wants to forge ahead with the Lake Powell Pipeline and saddle Kane, Iron and Washington counties with massive debt that is supposedly to be paid by "newcomers." The state will either end up having to bail out these counties to fund the pipeline or there will be massive property tax increases ahead for existing residents of the area. Everyone hold on to your wallets, this is going to get ugly.
Investor | 9:28 a.m. June 1, 2008
We are already seeing the bottom of this. Prices in St. George have been flat and even slightly increasing for the past two months. The "deals" of six months ago are becoming more rare as the inventory begins to sway back into sync with the demand... which is ALWAYS present due to the climate and attraction of the area as a senior retreat and retirement mecca.

Those building lots that were 350K two years ago are now 280K and will be 400K two years from now.

This is a good time to buy.
hanna | 9:46 a.m. June 1, 2008
Boy, you can cut the smugness on this site with a knife. Oh wait, this is D News. Nevermind!
Investor | 10:17 a.m. June 1, 2008
Dear "Investor"

In my opinion this is wonderful news. Utah is NOT different and we now are seeing the fallout from the greedy builders, buyers, and brokers. I hope they all get what's coming to them.

To "Investor" above. This is far from over. We have at least two more years of this before we might begin to see a bottom. Then several years of no gains at all. Building lots will not be 400K in two years.

If anybody tries to tell you to buy now run away. They only have something to benefit from it if you do.
Drinking the koolaide | 10:18 a.m. June 1, 2008
Investor, I think you are drinking the koolaide shipped in from California. No way will that lot be 400k 2 years from now. The market can't support that.

I agree things will probably bounce back, but it is going to take time. Another Jimmy Carter presidency on the horizon won't help things either.
Greedheads | 10:23 a.m. June 1, 2008
Why would you say we are not running out of land? Good Grief! We are selling off our farm land and we are running out of water very quickly. Living in the desert with your big house, big lawn and big bills.
Our home is paid for (took me 5 years to pay it off), summer home is paid for (paid cash), and a 3rd home in Monterey,CA was a very good price and has a decent mortgage rate of 4.75%. I also believe in paying my credit card off in full each month. Kids are through college and none of them has a student loan to pay off. Stop trying to beat the Jones' needing bigger and better all the time. You people got into to this mess and now you can feel what it was like for your grandparents to go through the depression.
Oh yes, I am 52, retired.
Anonymous | 10:48 a.m. June 1, 2008
St. George is horrible for greediness and worldliness bigger and better houses just to show off to others what they have! I am happy the housing market is the way it is!!! I hope more and more of these greedy young people get what they deserve! They think that they need 3X's the house now that their parents took years and years to be able to buy!
greedheads? | 10:54 a.m. June 1, 2008
stop tyring to keep up with the Joneses says the guy who retired at 50 and owns three homes? classic.
Anonymous | 11:23 a.m. June 1, 2008
The problem actually has to do with the deregulating of the wall that once stood between community banking and investment banking... once that wall was deregulated it was only a matter of time before mortgages would become tools for speculation and hedge fund shenanigans.

Depression or recession? Good question. One only needs to look at circumstances to know where we're at from a historical context. We are at the equivalent cutting edge of a Black Tuesday 1929... that led to a worldwide depression. The signs, high level of unregulated or sloppy regulated securities market, futures trading of everything basic to economic well-being, the rich and privileged having tax breaks and financial opportunities not available to the working class, riches made on pure speculation that don't contribute any 'real value' to the economy, etc., etc., are all in place today... and well... we've already brushed through two serious bobbles, with a third eminent. You know what they say about things happening in threes?

This is the time to simply get out of debt as much a possible and stay out of debt. Those who do so may well become the wealthy during the impending economic fallout that will undoubtedly happen.
Greedheads | 11:43 a.m. June 1, 2008
TO -"classic" I have minimal debt. Home in Calif is owned by me and my sister, she makes the payments and lives in it, I was happy to be able to help her get a nice home. Summer home is 1500 sq ft cabin bought it from parents after they became to old to care for it. My home in SLC is my husband, myself and a pet in 3200 sq ft
The MRY home has 12 years left on the Mortgage, how is that keeping up with the Jones?
PS -that guy is a girl and lucky us, we made wise investments, paid cash when possible. I consider us fortunate to have done well.
kfb | 11:43 a.m. June 1, 2008
I think that this is just the tip of the iceberg. I suspect that home prices will never reach their height of 2005 in St. George. Now is not a good time to buy. I believe that we have 20-30% lower to go before we see any type of a recovery. The economy is shaky right now and gas is at $4/gallon. It will probably hit $5 before the summer is out. That will take more money out of consumers pockets and increase defaults and foreclosures. Hold on. Until the commodities market crashes we are going down...way down.
Stand Outs | 12:08 p.m. June 1, 2008
You can spot the financial, real estate, and big investors a mile away. What are they saying right now? It's a good time to buy and invest, well beleive me it isn't. Don't let these GREEDY people talk you into proping up their busineeses. Things are going to get a lot WORSE before they get better. Do the best you can do with your financial portfolio as it is today, but under no cicumstances do you want to go out and reinvest in todays market because one of these type of individuals say it is good. Sit and wait we haven't even thought of bottoming out yet and more than likely won't for at least 2 to 3 yrs. Just cool purchases people, now is not the time.
Anonymous | 12:21 p.m. June 1, 2008
Trickle down means being trickled on if you're middle class. Utah voted for the same economics that have defined Mexico.
Predictable | 12:23 p.m. June 1, 2008
Just like a ballon you over inflate and it will pop. Much of the blame belongs to the realators who pumped up the prices on both sides. Representing the buyer and sellors how silly is that.
Gamble on a depression | 12:42 p.m. June 1, 2008
Hang on. The end is far off. How far can you make $1000 go. First off is buying gas for your car then food. You probably noticed there was very little left. How many businesses are going to go under? I see a eight year run then a slow recovery.
My advice, don't buy anything right now. If you have money hold on to it. If you don't have money, buy only the esentials.
re: Stand Outs | 12:44 p.m. June 1, 2008
Not sure if the economy is going to be as bad you predict. Suspect within a year things will start to turn up. However, the fuel problem is what is most concerning. We all saw the problem with oil years ago - and have wondered why nothing pragmatic has occured regarding alternative fuel. We need to stop talking about solutions several years out - and get solutions (not oil digging) in place now. The winners of alternative fuel will be richest people ever.
Anonymous | 12:47 p.m. June 1, 2008
Everyone should read the article in the Sunday NY Times that discusses what it takes to get a mortgage today, it will be eye opening. It is crazy to buy a home right now. Save some money and fix up the one you have. I took by hubby out for 3 days looking at a new home in the upper Avenues and we looked at home after home and so many were 7 bdrm & 8 baths, there is only 2 of us. We have the cash in the bank to buy a 7 fig home and we finally came back and decided to remodel the kitchen, front door and baths. We like where live, but it is good to go out and look once in awhile.
NY Times is garbage | 1:15 p.m. June 1, 2008
To anonymous, I wouldnt use the NY Times for toilet paper on a caming trip. Its garbage.
John | 2:13 p.m. June 1, 2008
I really feel bad for these people that are upside down in their homes. I knew this was going to happen, but I am a CPA with an advanced business degree. The sad thing to me is that, in our country, to graduate high school and college you have to study world history and learn how to diagram poetry, but there is no requirement to understand basic economic and financial principles.

It also saddens me that so many people here love to post about how smart they are and they own 5 homes all over the country they paid cash for. Get over yourselves, cuz clearly you are all trust fund babies. I make 70K a year and my wife and I waited 5 years to have kids and saved all of her income and yet we still feel the pinch of recent food and gas inflation. We own no boats or RVs nor do we summer in Europe. The fact of the matter is that the world has changed and it is extremely hard to live on one income any more, a choice many people in UT want. Instead of inflating yourselves, have a heart for those affected.
Earl | 2:24 p.m. June 1, 2008
I apologize if I sound repetitive, but either no one believes it or the message just hasn't gotten through yet: greed is not the problem. Well, it's a problem, but no one is going to solve that in this world or this life. You have to take the tools away that enable greed, specifically the central banking system. That's the dirty little secret they don't want you to talk about. And, VOILA, nobody's talking about it! The Federal Reserve has been pumping worthless money into the system at an unbelievable rate in an attempt to avoid a recession or even worse. All that money ends up in banks. The banks only make money if they loan it out, so they do it at such low rates that it's virtually impossible to resist the temptation to borrow and invest in, oh, housing for instance. All that money drives up the prices of real estate to a breaking point, which we're now experiencing. Since then, the money has been going into the commodities market, which is now starting to experience a collapse. Where's the new money going next? Looks like it might be the stock market again. And so it goes.
Investor | 2:57 p.m. June 1, 2008
Glass half empty folks, who usually spout off but are not willing to take chances always miss the boat. Southern Utah is a good buy right now and will be for the next year. 2-3 years from now you will all be looking back and wishing you would have bought or invested in "the downturn".

To make money you MUST take chances!
No Koolaid for me | 3:02 p.m. June 1, 2008
Investor,

I trust you are out buying with both hands right now. Follow your own advice. Mybe you can reinflate the bubble all by yourself. Don't come on here and tell us to buy. Snatch up those bargains for yourself.
Thank you, Earl | 3:57 p.m. June 1, 2008
You are spot on. The biggest problem in our country and the elephant in the room that everyone is ignoring is the Federal Reserve, a private banking entity that prints our money with no backing and adjusts interest rates as they see fit. It's time for Congress to take back its constitutionally authorized power to coin money, and it's time to let the market control interest rates. And, no, I am not talking about having a free market like the one we've had for the last century. I am talking about the real free market prior to the creation of the Federal Reserve and all the government regulation on the economy. Before then, inflation basically didn't exist. Since the creation of the Federal Reserve our useless paper money has become more and more worthless due to inflation.
Chicken Little | 4:18 p.m. June 1, 2008
This problem was created by greed. Banks and mortgage companies made a fortune off of people who rightly should never have been given loans, including out-of-state speculators. Real estate agents demanding 7% of the price were getting their share of the pie as well. Some of these individuals and companies were outright crooks. Now, the rest of us are paying for it. I own a home outright, but I also paid top dollar for it. Thank goodness I don't have to sell right now, but if and when I do, I suspect I'll incur a substantial loss. However, maybe by then I won't have to fork over 7% of the price to some BMW driving real estate agent.
hey there | 4:34 p.m. June 1, 2008
There is no way to time when the bottom will hit. Maybe now is a good time to buy, maybe a year from now will be better. Nobody has a crystal ball. I say...buy if you can AFFORD it...wait if you can't. It's not rocket science, people.

If you have good credit and a large down payment (which some people actually do, contrary to what this article would have you believe) then go ahead and buy, especially if you plan to stay a while. Interest rates are great for buyers.

If you plan on waiting it out, good for you, I hope it works out. Save up for that large down payment anyway, because it's ALWAYS a good idea, regardless of market conditions. But there's no way of knowing exactly when the market will change. It could be years, as some predict, it could be months.

And name calling is less than helpful.
ER in AF | 4:40 p.m. June 1, 2008
No, I am not a trustfund baby; yes I own several rental houses; no I did not take any ARMs; yes I put down 25% on each due to selling at the height in Wash DC. I worked construction since 1984 off and on and now work for the USGOV. To those that say that house prices will never see the same levels again I say to you you are ingnorant of economic principle. There is a cycle of prices that go up and down, but the over-all direction of the cycle is up long-term due to supply/demand. Do not fool yourself into thinking that prices go down and stay down. How much did a house cost 5 years ago, 10, 15 and 20? You must have a plan (you HAVE to have a plan) with a cycle at its foundation that is longer in time than the housing cycle. Get in short and you will usually get burned. Stay in long and you will make money long-term. John Adams' Father said, buy land; they are not making any more of it, and it doesn't go bad.
Realtor | 4:40 p.m. June 1, 2008
I'm a Realtor in Southern Georgia. We have been hit by the slow market just like So. Utah, Texas, Alabama, Ark etc. I have counseled my buyers & sellers to STAY PUT!!! I do business in a predominately Military town so the housing market is greatly impacted by the deployment and influx of military personnel. I take offense when a comment is made that Realtors & Finance Co.'s are out to "GET" the consumer. I for one take every opportunity to educate my clients concerning one of the biggest decisions they might make in their lives and that is buying a house they can more than AFFORD especially if it is their first purchase. I have walked away from many sales because I won't put a client in a house that they can't enjoy because of a mortgage payment they can't afford just for the commission!
Yup | 5:35 p.m. June 1, 2008
See where greed will get you?
Any Real Realtor | 6:09 p.m. June 1, 2008
Any real realtor will tell you the truth about the market and they will advise you not to buy right now. But those who are looking for a commission check so they can pay their own bills and feed their families, those are the lenders and realtors that will tell you now is the time to buy. Just like a car salesman. Of course you have to buy today or else you don't get the deal. That is the only way they made money. If realtors and lenders were paid a salary and not a commission, then they would be telling you the truth.
Anonymous | 6:34 p.m. June 1, 2008
Anonymous 12:21 PM is spot on about their assessment of the American economy.

Sadly, the style of American economics has been compared with that of Brazil, Mexico and Russia, all countries whose governments are now so into corporate welfare and corporate socialism while leaving their working middle-class to pay the bill with no benefit to them.

Corporate socialism and its insidious form of welfare treatment it gets from the government is the reason for high oil/fuel prices, high food prices, a collapsing housing market, etc., etc. It's all the result of the undelivered promise of free markets and their smoke & mirrors puffing that supply & demand is the reason for inflation and impending economic ruin, when in fact its gouging, price fixing, production fixing policies of corporations causing the problems...

So much for the promises of "prices will go down with deregulation and privatization of public holdings..." Take the role of oversight and accountability to the public out of the equation and the doors to graft, greed, gouging and fixing are the inevitable outcomes.

Wake up America! We drove justified social welfare off the plate only to replace it with the most insidious welfare of all... corporate welfare/socialism.
Watcher | 6:58 p.m. June 1, 2008
This is like watching the presidential canidates go at it, rep and dem alike. Few of the comments are helpful and most have few facts behind them to back up thier statements. I applaud the few that have written with respect and fact. As always do the research for yourselves, if it fits for your family, right now, under current guidelines, make the purchase. If not wait. We always like to blame someone when we made a bad decision. Its not the realtor, the mortgage guy or the banks that signed the documents. To those like my self that did make that mistake..... Look in the mirror, smile and change the way that you think.
IQ92 | 7:19 p.m. June 1, 2008
Maybe the multigenerational household people (i.e., polygs) have something over us. The cost of prudent living might be a mother-in-law and rugrats.
kfb | 7:40 p.m. June 1, 2008
When I say that home prices will never get this high again. I mean historically. Look at Phoenix. 6 years ago a starter was 130K. Two years ago that same home was 270K. That home today is about 175K. If you look at the typical inflation/appreciation of homes it is generally about 3-5% depending on location. That is why prices likely will never see (historical dollars) 270K for a starter home in 2005 dollars. Especially in places like ST. George where land is plentiful, homes are slab on grade and not particularly well-built.
Bigger Probs? | 8:07 p.m. June 1, 2008
Real estate is much less liquid than stocks. It will take years for the speculation to work its way out of the market, especially if the fed continues to resort to alchemy in the financial markets. Though, I had to laugh at the article. If lenders tightened their standards from requiring 3% down to 5% down and 1/10 buyers can't come up with 5% down, don't we have bigger problems?
re:realist | 8:21 p.m. June 1, 2008
This is the time to buy.

I mean, who tries to call the low. If you find something you like, have a little cash. You can surely find something you like for the right price.
CE | 9:07 p.m. June 1, 2008
Glad to see many of you thinking for yourselves, and not being fooled by the "spin" offered by numerous special interests, and our federal/state governments.

Let's agree: we are in the middle of a significant re-calibration of the US economy. The "credit crunch" is having a significant impact on our future, beyond just real estate. Get used to a lesser standard of living, especially if a driveway/garage full of adult toys is your definition of living well........
Normal Down Payments | 9:31 p.m. June 1, 2008
I live in HK right now, probably the most expensive housing market in the world. I have yet to buy a house (either here or in the US) because it is not yet the right thing to do for my family. I am more familiar with the buying practices here in HK so I was surprised by some of the statements in this article. I was particularly surprised to read that a 5% down payment is considered high. Here in HK a 30% down payment is required to purchase a home. I believe the lending rates are much more favorable here though. It got me thinking that maybe if the US had some minimum down payment regulation then we wouldn't be in this mess.

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Tishanne Stout's home in southern Utah appraised for $370,000 a year ago and now can't be listed anywhere near that.

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