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Utah Jazz: Fisher's familiarity with Utah offense, defense making him an integral figure
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After writing the first post, I decided to look at head-to-head competition. Over the four games played during the regular season, the Jazz were called for 100 fouls, the Lakers 93 (that's an average difference of 1.75 fouls per game). In this series, the difference is 8 fouls per game.
Again, the more telling stat is free throws. During the regular season series, the Lakers shot 122 free throws, the Jazz shot 123 (both team made 88). Did you all get that? During the regular season games between these teams, the Jazz actually shot 1 more free throw while committing a few more fouls (expected from the more physical team that gets more points in the paint). So, in comparison to the regular season series, the Jazz are shooting over 25% FEWER free throws, and the Lakers are shooting 46% MORE free throws. (Note: during the regular season, the home team did have a slight advantage).
Call me a homer, a whiner, or whatever you want, but the numbers don't lie. Nothing has changed so much in the past few months (no, not even "Gift Gasol") to justify these discrepencies. If these games had been called straight, or even reasonably straight, the Jazz win game 2, and game 1 is at least a lot more interesting.
Now - if you actually take off the end of game fouls that the Jazz were forced to commit to stop the clock. Coaches do it all the time and in Game 1 they committed 5 of them. In game 2 they committed another 4 of them by my count. Go rewatch if you disagree.
That makes the Jazz difference a 10% increase which is less than the Lakers percentage increase. If you disagree with how many end of game fouls were committed to stop the clock go back and watch. The stats speak for themselves. And your complaint about reffing is unfounded and ignorant when Sloan complained about his teams poor defense and "jersey pulling" fouls to make of for slow feet.
Just accept the fact that the Jazz were outplayed and move on.
Lakers - 27 fouls (31% higher than season avg)
Jazz - 33 fouls (37.5% higher than season avg)
First of all - the 6% difference is statistically insignificant but if you take off the 5 fouls that the Jazz forced to stop the clock at the end of GM1 the Jazz line becomes:
Jazz - 27 fouls (16.6% higher than season avg)
Game 2
Lakers - 20 fouls (-0.02% less than season avg)
Jazz - 30 fouls (25% higher than season avg)
Again, take off fouls forced for end of game clock management (I counted 4). The new line becomes:
Jazz - 25 fouls (8% higher than season avg). This is statistically insignificant.
So, you want statistics...you've got them now. And in the words of all the Jazz fan apologists out there "Stats don't lie". What will you do with that? Complain some more and say that now the stats no longer matter? Or will you accept that the difference in fouls has more to do with game clock management and "jersey pulling" and "slow feet" as Sloan reported in the post game interview? Who's right? You or Sloan?
This means that your competition in the playoffs should be both better and able to adjust more easily. How has Sloan handled adjustments? What can the Jazz do about the speed and cuts in the triangle offense?
If you rely on bodying up on players, you better not reach against a quicker player or you are going to get called for a foul. Against quicker players on offense you have to back them down and overpower them - that's the way to pick up fouls on them.
These are the things the Jazz are talking about, not the officiating.
I don't critize Larry for his decision.
But why couldn't they stipulate a non compete clause that he couldn't join a team in the Western Conference?
His daughter's surgery was in New York. To me that would have been the best option for all parties involved.
2) As far as averages, where are you getting your numbers? During the season series, the Jazz averaged 25 and the Lakers 23.25. In this series, the averages are 23.5 for the Lakers and 31.5 for the Jazz. So you are right in that the Lakers are close to their REGULAR SEASON SERIES average (I never disputed this).
3) The biggest problem is not the fouls, but the free throws (the discrepency is ridiculous).
4) As for end-of-game free throws: In game 2, the Lakers made 11. Even if you take away all of those free throws, statistics show that there was a 13 point discrepency. In game 1, the Lakers made 9 end-of-game freebies. Taking those away, the discrepency is 5 points, which, as I said before, would have at least made the games more interesting.
5) when you bring up Sloan, you are the one who sounds ignorant. He says the same things whether his team gets beat by 10 or wins by 20.
So for "to the Riddlers", "riddles vs. reality", et al., if you want to play the numbers game, use the most accurate numbers. Numbers don't lie and my numbers are right.
It's hard to see your team lose when they get homered. However, I think it must be even harder to watch your team win when you know they don't deserve it; as a Jazz fan, I've never actually experienced this, but the Lakers fans have to feel this all the time. I kinda feel sorry for them.
Fisher shouldn't be an exception, and I hope the fans boo him tonight. He is hurting the Jazz more than anyone else on the Lakers. Bottom line is that he left the Jazz and is now with the Lakers and is using the knowledge he gained here against us. He is keeping his former team from reaching our goal of a championship.
LA got Derek Fisher without compensation to the Jazz and then stole Pau Gasol for next to nothing.(Memphis is still under the influence if not outright direction of Mr. Laker, Jerry West). Boston robbed the t-wolves of Kevin Garnett (gosh, wasn't Kevin McHale a Celtic?) and Ray Allen from a team that was on its way out of town and not likely to complain at the theft of a superstar when facing the loss of a whole team. Wow!
Call me crazy but have you EVER seen FOUR all-star and even MVP calliber players trade teams in the primes of their careers for so little in return? How about even ONE superstar? Please name one deal that was so unbalanced, let alone four going to two teams. And don't tell me that Mitch Kupcheck and Danny Ainge are just smarter than everyone else; they were both 10 minutes from unemployment a year ago. Something smells like Kobe's sweatsocks!
FG%
Jazz- 81/196 (41%)
Lakers - 72/141 (51%)
Off-Reb
Jazz-41
Lakers-12
Look at the math. The Jazz shot a lower percentage resulting in more off-rebs. The Jazz subsequently shot 29 more FGs than the Lakers on off-reb alone. To equivilize this subtract the 29 off-reb shots and you have a 26 FGA difference -13/game. Not unusual at all in a game. Kudos to the Jazz for outrebounding the Lakers but the Jazz need to hit their shots.
FT Discrepency:
Kobe/Odom/Gasol account for 67/89 FT the Lakers have taken so far. Kobe is 35/89 himself. Each of these three players have had 80-90% of the FT from driving the lane and according to Sloan, getting pushed in the back, jerseys pulled etc. Watch the game-if you don't see it you're blind. Meanwhile the Jazz have turned into a fade-away jump-shooting team. Okur avg 3 FTA/game in regular season=soft for a center. Jazz fans all admit Boozer's a no-show on offense/defence. Kirilenko has stopped driving and Brewer/DWill rarely drive.
Watch the games again. Lakers drove on majority of posessions and Jazz took jump shots. There's your scouting report. Numbers have context behind them-so don't make yourself look ignorant.
It's simple math.
(Jazz outrebound the Lakers on the offensive board by 29) + (Lakers have more TO than the Jazz by 4) = 33 more shots the Jazz will take than the Lakers.
What was the FGA balance?
Jazz-196
Lakers-141
= 55 FGA difference
(55 FGA difference)-(33 additional FGA)= 22 Shot discrepency.
We're talking in each game, the Jazz only had 11 more FGA.
The context here is that if the Jazz had shot better than 41% they'd likely be up 2-0 or at least tied. Or, go the other way, if the Lakers hadn't been killed on the offensive rebounds (pretty close on defensive) they'd have blown the Jazz out by 20 each game.
The reason the Jazz FG% was lower is because they shot a high percentage of fade-away jump shots which results in more misses, fewer FT. Ask any coach, the more you drive the higher your percentage and more FT you get. Now, Okur is the only player who's even playing inside the key so what do the Jazz fans expect?
Well Played Mr. Stern...Well Played.
stop the Denmaster and his Laker Softies...
It never ends, the argument about small market teams never having a chance and the league and Stern cheating in favor of big markets to "make more money."
So why don't Jazz fans who make such lame arguments explain how San Antonio has won 4, repeat FOUR championships in the last decade???
Also, the idea that Stern and the league would intentionally interfere and fix reffing to help big market teams so they can make more money is absurd.
The league consists of several teams across a spectrum of market sizes, the number one factor which will lead to a profitable league is COMPETITION amongst the entire league. This is why so many rules have been created around trading, salaries, etc, to try and level the field. The sum of the many small market teams outweighs or at least equals the few big markets. If evidence ever surface of league cheating in this regard or even suspected with sound evidence (not dumb fans with conspiracy theories) , the end result would be bankruptcy, not extra profits for the NBA.
This must be really under your skin. It makes me laugh - as a Lakers fan and an NBA fan that you seem to have blinders on. Everything hasn't worked out for you and so you are raging. You feel anger. You feel betrayed. Most of all you haven't won jack and it makes you realize that if you couldn't do it with Stockton/Malone or DWill/Boozer that you never will. Face it unless Utah drafts lucky, they're likely to not attract top talent to Utah. Boozer was a rate exception in the Jazz history of trades/signings.
As for Fisher, even if you question how much of his daughter's care is in NY vs. LA the fact is, his daughter still has A TUMOR IN HER EYE. Meanwhile, as a happy-go-lucky Jazz fan you have no problems with Boozer promising to sign with the Cavs for $40MM if they remove his restricted free agent status and then signing with the Jazz for more money. Not exactly the same as Fisher leaving for less money to take care of his daughters TUMOR IN HER EYE
The 3 extra fouls that the fakers take intentionally each game. Since the Jazz are never in the bonus (maybe 1 quarter a game), the Lakers have taken intentional fouls at the end of each quarter. That's at least 2 off of their total and we're back to statistical significance.
The sad thing is that those intentional fouls are the ONLY fouls that fish is getting called for, despite all the grabbing, bumping, and reaching that he's doing. (He didn't get away with those while wearing a Jazz uniform last year in the playoffs, BTW).
There's something a little 'fishy' going on.
The sad thing is that for the lakers, fisher is getting away with it too, as well as walton, etc. It's not just a kobee thing, but a whole team situation now- and it and the nba reeks.
Excellent analysis and I commend you on your work. There will be detractors that will comment on "late-game fouls" or they will bring up the sample size (which is admittedly small but it all we have to work with). Some will talk about Jazz fans are just cry-babies and we must have a complex because we are a small market team.
Even with all of that said, I can tell you that the company that I work for would love to have a 5-10% increase in profits, even if it is for just one or two financial quarters. Let alone a 30% increase.
The numbers do speak the truth, whether or not anyone else wants to admit it. In addition to that, my gut usually speaks the truth and these last two games have been unwatchable. Both games I have turned off with about 4 minutes to go because I am certain that it won't get turned around. (Not to mention that when I Steve Javey is officiating I know that the Jazz don't stand much of a chance.)
Last comments: Boozer-PLAY D and figure out how to shoot! D-Will take the game over!
GO JAZZ!
the New England Patriots? Go Jazz. If the old
mighty buck were not able to influence NBA games, the Jazz would have two or three world championships.
So why are you still Jazz fans? Why are you still watching NBA games? Go find yourselves something else to do instead of wasting your time and being mad about these rigged games.
We still cheer for the Jazz because they run their program the right way- without the cheating, drugs, DUI's, etc. and do it while having a hard time getting any players to want to come here. That's what makes it that much more satisfying when they do make a good run or have a great playoff series. They're doing it against much larger odds than the big market teams and their 'untouchable' MVPs.
When it comes to re:riddlers comments hey is making the numbers fit his story. If you can ignore every bit of statistical math and calculation from the earlier posts (12:21pm and 12:32pm) but think his off-hand comment then you need to either reread the posts or I dont know. There's probably not much more to say if you can't see it.
Good luck in the game tonight.
I didn't see game 1 (Sunday), and fell asleep during game 2 (10:50 EDT is a _very late_ start), but from what I saw in games 2 and 3, I can say that the problem with the officiating here (BTW, NBA referees are horrible, playoffs or not) is not the foul count, but the simple fact that stuff isn't being called. I'm a huge Jazz fan, but I thought the Jazz got away with some stuff last night. I'm sure the Lakers got away with stuff. The main example is Williams getting hammered twice on that drive where he hurt his wrist, but nothing was called. Boozer, AK, Harpring, Milsap, and Brewer all got fouled without calls, too.
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Unfortunately, that's not the worst of the story. Let's look at free throws: In this series, the Jazz have averaged 23 free throws per game while the Lakers have averaged 44.5. During the season, the Jazz averaged 28 free throws per game to their opponents 30.1. That means that the Jazz are shooting 18% FEWER free throws and the Lakers 48% MORE free throws than season averages would suggest.