Comments about ‘Part genius or part idiot? Jazz G.M. O'Connor plays both parts’

I think the Jazz managment are doing a fine job and should be proud of the decisions they have made in the most recent trade period. Time will tell but I believe as most fans that I've talked to, we will field a better team this year than in the last 7 or 8 years. Go Jazz!!!

WP48 will accurately predict the win loss records of teams. It has been very accurate in that capacity for years for almost all NBA teams. If you take the WP48 of the best 9 players (the ones who get the most playing time) you can predict playoff results with reasonable accuracy.

If you project (based on history and potential) the WP48 for the Jazz under a worst and based case scenarios you get the following.

DWill .25-.30
AK .20-25
Millsap .15-.25
AJ .15-.25
Bell .05 -.15
Gaines .05-.15
Hayward .05-.15
Okur .0-.10
CJ .0-.10

Team .90-.170

A team needs to be in the .160 range to contend for the West.

In a best case scenario Millsap reverts to his historical best, AJ adjusts his shooting efficiency and passing, Bell has a great year, Hayward is better than Mathews, Gaines (much higher WP48)replaces Price, Okur recovers fully and CJ improves shooting efficiency.

This might be possible by the end of the season. There is little room for error.

In a worst case scenario a .90 WP48 will probably miss the playoffs since the West is so competitive.

I know the Jazz are in the Lux Tax. However, LA just added Barnes.

The Jazz have taken some important steps in the right direction lately. I think they are still a couple of improvements short of contending.

1. AJ is probably the PF of the future, assuming his shooting efficiency and passing improve. I am pretty sure they will. He should be better than Boozer by the end of the year.

2. The Jazz do not have the right C yet. AJ can cover for now. Fes (if resigned) will help if his rebounding and offense improves. C is the biggest hole for creating a contender. Okur/AJ are not the answer at C. No defense.

3. Price is not the right back up PG. The back up PG plays 20% of the minutes and affects the play of 5 players. Gaines is better but may not be the right PG (yet). This is the second biggest problem and needs to be fixed this year.

4. The Jazz need one more shooter and a injury insurance big. That is fixable.

Some will say to not try to contend. The Jazz need to make moves.

KOC probably can not fix the C properly without waiting for the right trade. That may take a year or two.

Even average Cs are expensive and hard to get. Dumpster Diving is not likely to get the C of the future this year.

The right back up PG is doable now. Gaines is either ready to take over or the Jazz need to replace him (or Price) with the right PG. Dumpster Diving or Europe might do it?

Another shooter could also double as the back up PG. The Jazz play best with 2 PGs on the floor. Gaines might do this?

An insurance Big could be a shot blocker. If Fes can not be resigned then the Jazz will have to find a back up C. Most of the good candidates are gone but there are some Summer League and Euro types who could do.

Some team will be dumping a promising young big at the trade deadline to cut salary?

If the Jazz are going to contend they still need to make some moves.

KOC is very good at evaluating existing talent and fitting them into the Sloan flex.

Another find (like Mathews) is possible.

@Bugoff

I agree. They've got to make moves. KOC did say that he's not done yet. I hope he's still thinking big, and not just referring soley to re-signing Fes, Gaines, and Jeffers.

If AJ or Millsap get injured there is no back up. That is a pretty dangerous situation for the first half of the year. AK could cover for Millsap at PF but Hayward would play a lot of minutes at SF.

A lot rides on quick development of Hayward. I am not counting on much of a contribution by Okur until near the trade deadline.

Bugoff: The WP48 metric is will not predict the season. You have a wide range in your best and worst case scenarios, how does that predict anything. Alot of times you give good thoughts, but this WP48 stuff is over complicating things. You could of summed up your 10:07p post by saying if they play good they'll compete for the western title or 2nd to Lakers, if they play bad then they'll compete for 5-8 seed. Simple as that.

Now on your 11:04p post, I like what you're saying. The moves they make to fill out their roster will be very vital, especilly if an injury comes up. If Fes is resigned then we're sitting on 10 under contract. We'll need 3 more to reach the minimum of 13 players. I think they need a point, wing and post to add depth all around. Like you said, an upgrade at PG is needed and wouldn't be the hardest move to accomplish. There is always a wing to be had, but a quality big might be the hardest spot to fill.

"...it had become clear the team wasn't greatly improving. It was time for a change."

I think this is a significant statement and right on the money. I think Boozer is a great player but his passion for winning seemed to be lacking. I hope Al Jefferson brings a different attitude to the team. I think he will. We know Deron Williams puts winning above all personal accolades. And Raja will be great, but only for a couple of years. We have to fill that gap right away. I like the changes. I'm excited for the season to start.

I think the Jazz missed out on a young, inexpensive shotblocker, defensive C/PF, in Ian Mahinmi (age 23), who was recently signed by Dallas, apparently for a minimum contract. I watched some film on him and he seems to have the size and athleticism of Derrick Favors, with more skills (in the film I watched, he could actually dribble-drive). It looks like he got forced out of San Antonio in a numbers-game situation, whereas San Antonio is finally bringing Tiago Splitter to the NBA.

One option for a potential shot blocker C/PF is Sean Williams, who was the #17 draft pick for New Jersey in 2007. He was waived by the Nets in January 2010, and played out the season in China and Puerto Rico. He is kind of a knucklehead, but has great shot-blocking ability, and is only 23 years old. The Jazz could probably sign him on a minimum non-guaranteed contract. With a more stable environment at the Jazz, perhaps he may quit being such a knuckelhead, and reach his potential. If he doesn't work out, the Jazz could waive him and try something else.

The question was: KOC, part genius part idiot? Gotta be part idiot. How many GM's don't have the cell phone # of a free agency like Kyle Korver and let him start negotiating w/ other teams. Likewise, why did Portland have 1st crack at Mathews (did KOC not watch the Jazz in the Playoffs- who go thru to the Lakers?)And there's still no caliber replacement for Booz. KO needs to be watching no only the others teams in the NBA but he Jazz games. Definately part idiot. JAZZ miss the playoffs next year.

What is the thought up there about Shannon Brown of the Lakers - Obviously with the addition of Barnes - the Lakers most likely will not bring him back. He would make an amazing back-up point and possibly a 2?

WP48 is NOT a good predictor for teams or playerz that make moves....to much depends on how things work out in the new enviroment...you can't even predict Derons WP48 until after he has played with his new team mates for awhile.....

As to the question of whether on not KOC is a good GM, I think it’s fairly obvious when you look at his track record. In the last 11 years the small market Jazz have missed the playoffs twice. This includes a MAJOR rebuilding period.

If you compare us to Chicago, they started rebuilding at roughly the came time, they’re in the 3rd largest TV market, they’ve gotten lucky in the draft lottery twice, yet they’ve only made the playoffs a few times in an extremely weak Eastern conference and never past the 1st round. They had every advantage over Utah yet it took Chicago 11 years to rebuild, it took the Jazz 2.

The NBA is a business, if you want to know if a GM is good, look at his bottom line. How many playoff games has he won per dollar spent? The only GM with a better winning percentage per dollar spent ratio might be San Antonio’s. But San Antonio also won the lottery twice in very good years to win the lottery.

Jesse the WP48 tends to be very steady unless a player changes systems (role changes), or makes necessary changes in their game. The most likely WP48 for the team is about .100 with the current roster but since I am trying to be positive I did include the range.

The WP48 will also pin point what each player needs to improve.

Note: Millsap probably will improve. AJ may improve some but has been in the .15/.16 range for years. Bell should provide at least a .05. Price will probably play instead of Gaines so that is a .0. Who knows what Hayward can do his first year? Fes (if he resigns) will probably have to play instead of Okur and he is a -.10 unless he rebounds like a machine or improves his offense. CJ will probably be CJ which is .0 unless he improves his shooting efficiency.

It is not not as simple as "if they play good" it is IF each individual player makes the necessary improvements and IF Sloan actually plays the best combinations (that is an important area I did not touch).

There are a lot of questions but they could challenge LA.

Hello! Brad Rock!!! Are you there???

Way to not mention that O'Connor was recently ranked #2 for general managers of the NBA (behind Pat Riley, ahead of everyone else...)

He is sooo completely underrated and hated by Jazz fans (Fans that are extremely selfish and spoiled. Quite frankly I think they are idiots. Yes thats right, if you booed Fisher or Gordon Hayward, I think you are an idiot.)

I take it back. I just did a google search for this ranking and found out that its just some dude. Not a very consequential ranking...

I totally agree on Mahimni. The Jazz should have picked him up for cheap insurance. He can play both C and PF.

Amundson and Josh Boone are still available but will cost more. Udoka would be a very good cheap defender who can also shoot. Damien Wilkes is more expensive.

I strongly suspect Gaines will have his act together and take over PG. If he does not then KOC is fully capable of finding someone to replace Price/Gaines. Acie Law may be worth a look? I like Gaines better.

There should be some good second round talent cut from other teams as the season starts. KOC might get a young big shot blocker there. There are also a couple in Europe.

I am mostly worried about an insurance big and how fast Hayward progresses.

Until Okur is 100% the Jazz are very thin at big if there are any injuries (there are always injuries).

If Hayward can progress as fast and well as Mathews that really helps at the SF/SG.

KOC gets the wrath and the glory for the decisions, but most of them are group decisions with a lot of Sloan finger prints.

The #2 rating totally ignored 10 years of poor first round drafting and was highly subjective.

However, you can make a case for KOC being in the top 10-15 GMs.

His biggest weaknesses are the draft, reticence to make moves unless forced, and in contract management. He does an excellent job (maybe the best in the NBA) of evaluating existing talent and getting players who fit the Sloan flex. He also is like a stealth bomber. You rarely know what he is up to.

I do not buy the argument that SL is a small market team and can't compete. There are a lot of fairly good players who want to come here and are pretty open about it.

The Jazz will have to draft super stars if they want stars. That means they will have to trade for high draft picks.

IF they keep Williams and if AJ adjusts they will have the top PG and PF. They need a decent C, shooting/defense, and quality depth. If they get that (very doable over 2 years and within a reasonable budget) they will contend.

Millers seem willing to spend a little. There is hope.

Grading KOC this offseason

Gordon Hayward. This wasn’t the guy I would have picked and I think every Jazz fan expected more, but this pick makes much more sense now than it did on draft night. Jeremy Evans at 55 looks like a steal after Summer League and should make the team. For the draft I give him a B-.

Boozer for AJ. Over the last 3 seasons AJ averaged more points, more blocks and more games played per season than Boozer, AJ is also bigger, younger, cheaper, and more versatile. Plus AJ really wants to be here and Boozer really just wants to get paid. This is an easy A+.

Raja Bell for Wesley Mathews. Money being equal would the Jazz have traded Wes for Bell? Never. Is Wes worth $24 million more than Bell? Never. I don’t believe for one second that the Jazz never offered Wes a contract. Portland wanted to stick it to Utah and now they’re stuck paying $9.2 million for Roy’s backup. My grade: B

Overall I give KOC a B+. If they can sign fes at a decent price A-.

Please stop with the WP48. Give me the same database used to create the WP48 and an hour and I can come up with something just as good.
It's easy to look at old seasons and say "these players had great numbers, no wonder they won". We have no idea how the players will perform next year, especially after a major trade.
It's possible that AJ and Williams will work so well together that we forget about Stockton and Malone. It's also possible they work so poorly together that we wish we were the Knicks. There is no stat that can predict this.