Jazz arent biggest losers; Wizards are biggest winners
At least we didn't drop and now we can concentrate on who will be available at
#9. Like I have said I like Epke Udoh but Greg Monroe would be good also.
As workouts start and more info comes in on how the players perform opinions can
and probably will change but Udoh is 6'10, athletic, 7'4 &1/2 in. wing span,
defender/shotblocker (3.7 per game last yr). good ball handler, lot of
potential.Monroe is 6'10/11, lefty, good ball handler, good passer, good
rebounder.Both of these players give us the length we need at PF.Montiejunas would be a possibility, 7' , good offensive player.Aminu
would be a possibility at the 3 if he is available.
Since New Jersey did not get the number one pick, will this make them more
amenable to a working out a trade with the Jazz?Korhorov mentioned
twice on ESPN that he wanted to make the Nets an international team with global
players.Adding AK to New Jersey would certainly do that.It will be interesting to see how badly he wants a Russian Hero on his team.
And the Jazz will make some stupid pick and forget that they have no one in the
middle to help their team. Anyone want to bet that even with the 9th pick the
Jazz still won't find a center?
This is a WEAK draft! It doesn't matter who the Jazz PICK!....The Jazz need a
proven SUPER STAR! If the Jazz are ever to win a championship, they need to get
one of these free agents out there. BIG TIME move= BIG TIME results!
probably Austin Ainge or someone from a parts unknown no one has heard of
I agree with rvalens2, but fear the Jazz will trade AK for Keith Van Horn. I
will not be surprised to see them pick a 1 or 4 when we desperatly need a great
What are you talking about? The Jazz are one of if not the best drafting teams
in the NBA. The Jazz will dramatically improve their team with this pick.
mr. duh, there is always someone negitive. lets have fun to hope we will get a
good player. quit being a grouch and go fishing.
@Rvalens2Some very interesting senarios cold develop with this years
pick whether we keep it or use it as bait to swing another deal. The new Russian
owner looked disappointed losing out to Washington and Philadelphia.(Ouch) The
Jazz are loaded with trade ammunition for teams looking to wheel and deal.
Re Duh : Nobody knows what the Jazz are thinking but there probably won't be any
centers available that are worth the ninth pick and the Jazz already have two 7
footers that just need developing. If you picked a center in the draft they
would be in the same pickle Fes and KK are in. Sitting at the end of the bench
hoping for playing time so they can develop.
Keep in mind that the Jazz have some assets to move up if they need to ie: the
future lottery pick from Memphis, the rights to Ante Tomic, and all of their
future first rd picks.But also keep in mind that it took 3 1st round
picks to move up from 6th to 3rd in 2005
Re captain LThe Jazz actually have three 7 footers in development with
7'"2 Ante Tomic, but I still think you go after the best big you can get whether
it's a 4 or a 5.Just keep drafting and stock piling big guys until
one of them works out.
The Jazz need to trade Boozer their first round draft pick, and a the memphis
pick to the 76ers for the sixers pick and either Brand or Dalembert.What do you guys think of that one?Did you see KOC I should be the
GM and Cowboy Joe the owner
Re Miles : You must think alot of Brand and Dalembert.You trying to ruin
Re byronbca : That is why you go after Udoh or Monroe both are 4's,6'10, both
are long, athletic,defender/shot blockers and there aren't any centers worth
picking that will be available at #9. The Jazz should be able to get one of
those two without giving up any of their assets.
ARG............. I can't take your silly Jazz fans. We need a center, trade
Boozer, are you serious! Boozer is a top 5 PF in the league, and no Milsap is
not the answer as a starting PF. The Jazz have the best point guard in the
league, good role players and the best coach in the league. The problem is the
Jazz don't have a closer, look at games 1 2 and 3 against the lakers, the Jazz
were so close just can't finish! DWill needs to find a way to close games, or
the Jazz will be a really good team not a great team.
A few thoughts on the lottery: I was happy to see the top three picks go to
eastern conference teams. I would have hated for the Jazz to deal with Wall or
Turner if they had gone to a western conference team like Minnesota or
Sacramento. The west is tough enough already.Also, I really like the
possibility of the Jazz trading to move up. A few teams that expected to get top
two picks didn't, and they might now be much more willing to listen to trade
offers. I don't think the Jazz will stay at 9. I think they will trade the pick
one way or another. I just get the funny feeling they won't stay put.
Dang Knicks! Had to stop being lousy at just the wrong time...
SLoan "the best coach in the league"Hee Hee Hee HeeI am rolling over laughing, thanks for the laugh...Oh yeah the
very best22 yearsrings wonZeroMuch better than Jackson and all, Auerbach, HoltzmanI was hopeful
we would see a plaque of "Mount Jer"in the same photo surrounding
him would be his "sloanaholic leaders"Doug10 (a leader of the
Sloanaholics):Doug, you bag on Korver, Fes and Koustos much as I do
on "Jer"Are you a hater?
RE: J1232 | 7:34 p.mDo I need to post, Again, the history of
the draft to show HOW BAD the jazz are at draftng?IF they so great
why are there only 3 1st rounders on team from last decade?The list
is long of players they missed on in BOTH the first and second rounds,who are having careers in NBA,while we don't hear much about those
great jazz picks.
@ Captain LI'm starting to wonder if Udoh or Monroe will even be
left at #9?Hopefully one of them preferably Udoh.If there gone maybe
somebody else good will slide, I would rather take a good 2 or 3 than Aldridge.
Fes will be better or Koufos than Aldridge.
IF THE JAZZ can get Monroe we can maneuver to what happens with Boozer.Philly
has to make a diction who they are going with at center.Sprights and Dalenbert
both are perfect.The other centers available in the draft are in the same
inexperience as Fes.Young.Getting 1 of Philly guys,and Monroe would also put the
Jazz to make a trade,AK,Boozer easy'er Atomic is improving but won't be here
until next year.# 9 is going to help,as long we get what we need now. Monroe +
trade='s fun next year!!GO JAZZ
I'll repeat my comments about Whiteside, he's raw and not a finished product,
but the way everyone leaves early you rarely see a completly polished rookie.
He's got a smooth looking jumper and is extremely long (7ft w/ 7'6" wingspan)
and athletic. He's got some impressive stats also, 5.4 blocks per game and had 3
triple doubles last year (11,10, and 13 blocks in those games).Now
i'd still like to move to 2 or 3 for Turner or Favors, but if we end up staying
at 9 I think he might be the way to go. I like Udoh as well but Whiteside has
too much potential to pass him at 9.
I am easily confused, but it is my understanding that Boozer is a free agent.
He is not under contract, and the Jazz can't "trade" him to any team for
anything. We just wait for the calendar, then interested teams start sending him
fruit baskets and suitcases full of money. The Jazz don't even get a courtesy
call out of the deal.
Ultimately, I think we ought to go bold and move up to 2 and get Turner. I know
we need size but Turner looks like the surest thing to me. We could use a 2nd
ball handler and creator. Imagine the set, where Wesley Mathews brings the ball
up and Deron plays off the ball, being run by Turner. I think with Turner being
a great ball handler and more of a threat, it really opens up that set for
Deron. If we go that way in the 1st then i'd take a project later in
the 2nd like Hamady N'Diaye, who had a pretty good run at the Portsmouth
Invitational. He averaged 9pts, 7rbs, and 4.5blks in a tough Big East
conference. I'd love for us to take a chance on him with his 6'11" frame and
I think at 9 we're going to be looking at Monroe, Udoh, Aminu, or Ed Davis. All
of those guys give us length or athleticism (or both) where we need it. I
obviously would have loved to have moved up, but I think we can definitely fill
a need at 9. I don't know why the Jazz would move up. I don't
really see anyone worth getting that high (unless they thought Cousins was going
to fix his attitude) or see anyone taking what the Jazz would have available to
offer...I mean, is a team going to take Boozer and the Jazz pick to
miss out of drafting Favors? I doubt it. If only it were as easy
as "Just ship AK to that russian dude and everything will be cool..."
Here is the list from last deacade of player jazz missed and it doesn't even
include players they missed if only they had just moved up a bit:2000: michael redd, Primoz Brezec 2001: gerald wallace,
dalembert, Jamaal Tinsley, Tony parker, arean, okur, bobby simmons,2002: Tayshaun prince, Nenad Krstic, john salmons, boozer , matt barnes,
2nd pick Darius Songaila, Luis Scola 2003: Boris Diaw, Travis
Outlaw, Kendrick Perkins, Leandrinho Barbosa, Josh Howard,2nd pick KOrver,
mo williams (let him go)2004: Al Jefferson, josh smith, jr smith,
kevin martin, Varejo, ariza,2005: chris paul, bynum, granger,
david lee, turaif, monta ellis, andray blatche2nd pick gortat2006: rajon rondo2007: aaron brooks, arron affalo, glen
davis, marc gasol,2008: mario chalmers, deandre jordon, Chris
Douglas-Roberts 2009: darren collison, taj gibson, marcus thorton,
wes matthews (they didn't draft him), jerebko, casspicompare
this to the list they did draft and still have:dwill, cj miles, milsap,
fesenko, koufos.OVER the last 10 years!NOw
tell me they are still great at drafting and evaluating talent and potential.
I doubt that any player in the this years draft will be an immediate impact.
Hers my dream team or move: sign and trade Booz with the draft pick for Bosh,
and trade Okur, Koufus, and price for Kaman (not sure if he is available). If AK
won't sign cheap unload him for cap space.
You might be able to "ship AK to the Russian dude". Besides the Russian
connection, NJ has money to spend this year but might not be able to get any of
the guys they want. AK's expiring contract might be interesting to them with
Carmelo being the big FA next year. With a ton of money and the move to Brooklyn
upcoming, they could land him. They could even afford to sign a big time player
this year, make the trade for AK and use that money coming off the books to go
after Melo. Lots of options. We've got that Memphis pick next year to play with,
so moving up is realistic.
Taj or Jerebko would've been nice. All you need to do is post who they picked in
the last 10 years and it speaks for itself.
There is no reason to trade up in this draft. We need a center or PF (in case
Boozer doesn't resign, and to back up Millsap). Udoh would fill the role
perfectly, with Monroe being my 2nd choice. We don't need any more 2s and 3s and
frankly I don't think Cousins is any better than Monroe or Udoh. I have watched
Udoh a few times and his defense is very impressive. Really the only thing the
Jazz need in this draft- interior defense!
There are a lot of reasons why I believe Korhorov will make a run at trying to
get AK to the Nets.First, the exposure for Korhorov in Russia would
be huge. AK carried the Russian flag during the last Olympics and he's still
revered over there.Second, as has already been noted, missing out on
the number one pick was a BUMMER for New Jersey. Had they landed it, that would
have been front page news in Russia.Korhorov knows there is no one
in the draft that would match the impact of bringing AK to the Nets. It isn't
enough for him to satisfy Nets fans in the U.S. ... his goal is to create a
following back home in Russia.Finally, with AK's expiring contract,
any future extension would be for a lot less money and would provide the Nets
with some wiggle room to sign a big free agent next year.Now ...
what might the Nets offer the Jazz that might swing a trade?Lopez...(continued)
The Jazz have to have a Center who is at least average in WP48. That means at
least .15. Okur was .05 this year and .08 the year before. .09 in
08. .10 in 07 and .17 in 06. Okur was an average C when the Jazz got
him but he has steadily declined. If you believe that the Fes will
sign with the Jazz and that he will move his negative wp48 up to a +.15 by
Christmas of next year then you ride with Fes. Or ditto if you have faith in
Koufos.If not then the Jazz need to get an existing NBA C with a
wp48 greater than .15 or they need to think about getting Cousins. Wall is not the best pick based on Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes.
1. DeMarcus Cousins: 15.61 2. Evan Turner: 14.37 3.
Wesley Johnson: 13.40 4. Derrick Favors: 11.20 5. John Wall:
9.97I will have to see if I can find a PAWS40 for Udoh and Monroe.
The wp40 (not adjusted for position) NCAACsCousins
17.8Aldrich 17.4Whiteside 15.6Monroe 12.5PFsDavis 15.9Varnado 15.9James 15.6Udoh 12.5EuroLeagueMaric 14.6Tomic 7.1Italian LeagueMotiejunas 8.1DLeagueCsJones 17.4Jackson 16.6Johnson 14.9Butch 14.9Tolliver 13.6PFsDorsey
15.9Harris 15.9Note the competition level of the Euro League
is probably better than the NCAA. It should be noted that college
wp40 is not a particularly great predictor of NBA success. The NBA is a
different game. The new mock draft has the MN picking Cousins and UT
picking Monroe. If MN picks Cousins they might trade Love? In a 3
way? UT should be able to buy a 1st round pick to get another decent player if
Lopez is the only player on the Nets the Jazz would want. But I doubt that the
Nets would be willing to give him up without getting more in return than AK.What might that be? Likely a draft pick and/or Fesenko (after the Jazz
re-sign him). Fes would be a natural fit for New Jersey, replacing the bulk they
would lose with Lopez. It also doesn't hurt that he's Ukrainian and would fit
right in with the international flavor Korhorov wants to build into the team.The hard part would be how to structure such a trade so that it fits
within the NBA's guidelines. The Jazz might also have to take some back players
they don't want or need.It's a dilemma but adding a player like
Lopez would make it worth the effort.
DeMarcus Cousins is my favorite for the Jazz in this draft - hope his attitude
is good. He is now projected at number 5 in ESPN's latest mock draft. Cole
Aldrich looks impressive on video, he's a well polished player ready to make an
impact; he's no Greg Ostertag. He's more like Tyler Hansborough. Ekpe Udoh has
a big wing span like others mentioned and Greg Monroe looks solid. Daniel Orton
is also worth a risk as well as Hassan Whiteside(another wing span player to
counter other teams like the pesky Lakers). I would either trade up for Cousins
or stay at #9 to get a big man.
We need defense, a presence in the middle. So if no DeMarcus Cousins then I
say...Hassan Whiteside, C, Marshall Conference USA's
Freshman and Defensive Player of the Year. With a 7-foot-6 wingspan, he led the
country with 5.4 blocks per game, a Dikembe Mutombo-in-waiting. And he has a
good touch from short range, though it's stil a work in progress.
There is another possibility here folks. If we traded Okur who is getting
worse, AND AK who stinks, we can now sign a proven commodity at C, David Lee or
Brendan Haywood. Then you can trade up and use the pick to go get a 2 to harass
Kobe all game long and maybe we can finally get past the Lakers. What would it
be like to have another legitimate 2 in this system? And one that actually
plays solid defense too?
I like the Jazz moving up to two for Turner. He and Williams would make one of
the best PG/SG combos in the NBA. At 6'7'' he is big and athletic. Not sure we
have what Philly would want though. Maybe our #9 and the Memphis pick?If not moving up like most others I think we stand pat and try to get a big.
I'm not as confident in Fes and Kufos as some others are. We need the most
polished big out there though and not another project. Cousins may be the best
big but is young and would like sit on the bench as Sloan likes his players a
bit older and developed. I like Udoh as he has played 2 years at baylor and is
a bit older (22). I think Aldrich fits best into Sloans system though and his
work ethic has been a huge plus. Both Aldrich and Udoh are shot blockers where
Monroe is not as good. All are big with good wing span and believe all would be
an improvement over Kufous or Fes. It's a crap shoot.
I've got to agree with Uteology about Whiteside, although I see him more like
Camby instead of Mutombo, more offense than Mutombo but less defense.Riot Man, you're not making much sense. Sure trading Okur would be great, but
you can't trade him for nothing, which is what teams would be willing to offer
for a Center on the decline and coming of an achilles injury. Trading AK's
contract makes sense but he's a great all around player who we'll need to soften
the blow of losing Booz and losing Milsap's presence of the bench. David Lee is
not a center, a nice player, but would only add to our defensive problems, not
solve them. Haywood would be ok but would he sign here over other teams if the
money is the same? I doubt it.I've got to disagree with TexasCoug
about not needing another 2 or 3. Especially if that 2 or 3 is Evan Turner.
Mathews and CJ are adequate, but we need depth and more scoring punch with
Korver likely out. Udoh would be a solid pick at 9 though.
The Jazz are probably saddled with Okur as his injury may end his career
depending on how his rehab goes.The Jazz may best benefit by signing
Boozer, trading Milsap and keeping AK. The following season with AK's salary
available the Jazz can replace AK and Milsap.Todd I am not a hater
but when you get paid $5 million and you are the paid shooter and will not shoot
then I don't feel the love for Korver anymore.Sloan is a stick in
the mud. He coaches consistently and it seems only one way. The players who
play inhis system appreciate that it is his system that allows players like
Matthews to step in and perform and become great. It also allows teams mostly
made up of second rounders and some misfits to comptete in the playoffs
annually.Phil Jackson is a great coach but he would never take what
KOC hands to Sloan and make winners out of them. Sloan takes whatever comes his
way and does the best he can, and he seems to put together a competitive
First of all Koufus and Fess do not get more playing time because they are no
good.They never will be more than a two minute back up. Jersey would not give up
Lopez. How about Harris.That and a package of picks and players Jazz could move
around.Some think 76ers will skip on Turner because they hav Iggy.
I think we can stil get a decent big in the draft, I like the AK trade idea with
the nets, so he could be a nets team member by the time the FIBA world
Championship starts. But I would do it only if Lopez is coming to the Jazz,or
for their 3rd pick which it looks he wasn't that happy with, so we can get
either Cousins or Favors. If the Rockets want to move up, I would
trade our 9th for their 12th and Scola or Battier even if I would have to put KK
or Fes on the mix, they would like to have Fes as a back up for Yao. Scola will
fit perfect on the Sloan flex.
wow ....lots of dreaming going on with the trades suggested...some of you must
think the other teams in the NBA are stupid....our #9 to Houston for
their #12 AND SCOLA !!!!! like the rockets would do that...even if you threw in
Fesenko or korver they would laugh at thatand forget NJ giving up
Lopez ..it won't happen...The Sixers will keep their pick and draft
Turner to team up with the young Jrue Holiday to form a future dynamic
backcourt..the notion of them passing on him because they have Iggy is
rediculous...they will be moving Iggy this coming season...I agree
with most experts that only Turner and Wall are a sure thing...after that the
field levels out..and Doug10 is right....we are stuck with OKUR...an
injury like his to a guy his size is devastating...he is now damaged goods...
Jazzsmack Why don't you tell us who the Jazz should draft so we can have a
record on how great a talent scout you are? Anyone can do better with hind
site. Every Team in the league passed on Redd, Memo Okur, Boozer,
Kevin Martin, Davis, Marc Gasol, Matthews, So are you saying that every GM in
the NBA is horrible? When you have the 3rd pick in 2006 and draft
Williams - you cannot say they missed on Granger - they did not have a pick for
Granger. But had they not taken Williams they could have drafted
Granger and then taken Rondo in 2006. It would have saved 2 additional first
round pick for David Lee in 2005 and Shannon Brown 2006. There are
a couple of bad drafts - Passing on Josh Smith was a huge mistake - Not only was
he ranked higher by scouts he had more upside than Snyder or Humphrey. You have
2 drafts shoot for the fence on one Almond over Gasol - That was
just dumbTaking Kosta over Chalmers was a mistake, but Jazz fans
would have been nuts taking a point guard instead of a center. No
one is perfect on drafting
I like the idea of getting Scola and Battier.Another scenario would
be to sign and trade Boozer to Orlando for Gortat and Barnes (or Pietrus).
Gortat has shown he could be a starter on most NBA teams. If the Majic
get swept they will want to clean house and Gortat has played smart and would
fit in with the Jazz. I think ORL would go for it because both teams would
benefit. I like Barnes for his all-arround game and grittiness. He is a tough
defender and can also hit a shot from outside.
The first priority is the C positions. That is where the Jazz can increase the
team WP48 the most, quickest for the least money. In this draft
there is Cousins (I would not trade up), Monroe and Aldrich. Monroe will take a
couple of years (to develop), most feel Aldrich is a back up in the NBA. I am
not thrilled. He could play faster. Is Aldrich better than Koof or
Fes (with playing time)? I felt Whiteside is too underweight but
Camby has extreme WP48 scores. Is Whiteside a Camby or a bean pole? The 2nd easiest position to add WP48 is the PF. Millsap can play that for a
year or 2. AK can back up until the trade deadline or when the drafted PF is
ready. I like Udoh, Monroe would be okay, maybe on Monte. A great SF would also help with AK at PF and with Korver and CJ as ? marks.
I would like to see the Jazz get a C via trade or exemption. A
decent one and develop both Fes and Koof. Draft PF/SF this year.Go
PF. Get an extra 1st pick for SF or move up in the 2nd.
Jesse: nice points on a potential trade with the Nets, if they miss out on
LeBron and look at it as a way to make a run at Melo. That kind of a point is
not the same as "Hey, AK's a Russian, maybe that NJ guy will take him!"
I haven't heard anyone talk about Ed Davis on here. Anyone have any
thoughts (besides regurgitated ESPN babble)?
Everyone talks about how The Jazz should trade AK. It might just happen.
Option 1. If New Jersey does not get a top tier free agent - James,
Wade, Bosh, they may not want to give up all their cap space on David Lee and
Joe Johnson. Turning them into 2010 version of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit
spent all their cap space on Gordon and Charlie and they are still a lottery
team. So New Jersey or some other team might just use their cap space for AK
who comes off the books in one year and they can try again in 2011. But New
Jersey is not trading Lopez or their 3rd pick for AK. It all
depends which teams are willing to throw money at Johnson, Boozer, Lee, Gay -
They are good players, but not players who anchor a championship team around.
If Bosh and Wade goes to Miami and James go to Chicago. And Stoudemire stays in
Phoenix. NYC, NJ, Still have tons of money - who do they spend it on?
Right now the Jazz are totally deficient at C. That is the primary reason they
are not contenders. The C position is a defensive liability. The
WP48 is dismal. Okur only averages 7 rebounds a game. That has to be 10 at
least. The Jazz are weak in rebounding and most of the rebounding comes from
short PFs. Most people think Okur's 3 point shooting is important as
they remember his spectacular 3 point shots. Those are vivid memories that skew
perceptions. He only makes 1.1 three point shots a game. He can't
rebound at the 3 point line. It is a media myth that Okur pulls his
man out to give Booz room and that helps Booz. Booz plays much better with a
traditional C (like Fes).It is cheaper and better to add 3 point
shooting at the SF/SG. The first step to a championship is a massive
up grade at C. I do not see that player in this draft. The next
major problem is PF. Neither Booz nor Millsap are the PF of the future. There
are some PFs in this draft who are worth trying. Fix the front line.
I think one of the dumbest things I see on these comment boards is when people
put a list of good players that the Jazz passed on in the draft. I hope you
realize you could make an equally long if not longer list for every single team
in the NBA. All your list proves is that those players were underrated by a
large portion of teams. Look at the Jazz's drafting and rookie history for the
past few years2005- Deron Williams (miraculously traded up from 6 to 3)
and CJ Miles (2nd round so low risk, and is now coming into his own and giving
solid rewards)2006- Ronnie Brewer and Paul Millsap (two of the top ten
players from the draft without picking in the top ten... so Bravo KOC)2007- Morris Almond and some other dude nobody cares about... admittedly kind
of a bust that year2008-Koufos and some random low risk 2nd rounders
(decent for only having low picks)2009- Eric Maynor (very solid pick,
enabled team to dump salary later and should have a decent career) picked up
undrafted Wesley Matthews (do I need to say anything else about that)
It may be possible to trade Booz as long as he goes where HE wants for more
money and years. That means a team has to want him very badly. Working a trade on Booz means taking bad contracts back (at least in part).
That is probably not smart. Teams want expiring contracts because the create
flexibility and erase mistakes. Letting Booz walk is not as bad as a lot think.
Let's see what develops. I doubt ORL wants Booz. Right
now I do not know of any player the Jazz could get for Booz who they would
really want. Look at the rosters of NY, NJ, MIA etc. You might get
Haslem but he is another undersized PF with 1/2 the WP48 of Boozer. That is a
bad trade. If you want to gamble pick up Earl Barron for cheap at
C/FC. You can trade him or Fes/Koufos later depending on which one (s) work out.
The Jazz need a real traditional C who rebounds and scores
inside/some jumpshots. They need a back up or developing PF and they
need outside shooting. They can do this and for reasonable.
What "work in progress" will they draft this time????
I think the Deseret News or that sarcastic, sardonic bloak Monson, player by
player pointed out that in the entire NBA, with the exception of Michael Jordan,
KOC IS THE WORST DRAFT GM IN PRO BASKETBALL....If the Jazz get another slow,
plodding, short haired, no offense to you anglo caucasion types, white guy, he
KOC should be fired.
The Jazz may want to look at Petro of DEN. I am not saying he is the answer. I
am saying his is 7 ft and an FA who may play better in UTs structured offense
than he does in DENs playground approach. He played really well
against the Jazz in one or more playoff games. He seems to have the agility,
size and some shooting touch. He seems to be able to rebound. He
would be cheap insurance if Fes does not sign.The Jazz are much
better at evaluating existing players who have some playing time than in
drafting late in the 1st round. They need to seriously look for an
emerging C who can play better in the Jazz system than in their current system.
Amundson, Amir Johnson, Iam Mahinmi, Earl Barron, and Aaron Gray
should be evaluated as inexpensive possibilities. I am sure most of them have
major flaws but the Jazz are good at making these types of players better. All of the above have much better WP48 than Okur. Gray (C)
and Johnson (PF) show some promise for reasonable. Are they better
than Fes/Koufos in the long run?
Bones I completely agree with you. All the KOC Haters out there never say this
is who the Jazz should draft. He is not perfect, but he his a better than most.
As Long as KOC doesn't drop a tier they are fine. And he doesn't
do that anymore.Last year. Chad Ford ranked Griffin last year
as the number 1 prospect and Rubio as number 2 prospect in the draft. Neither
of them played last year. Ford Ranked 3-5 were Jennings, Evans and
Curry (the next tier of players with Hardin) By the way they went 1, 2 and
3 in rookie of the year voting). Memphis passed on all three for a player they
had to send to the Dleague (Thabeet), New York, Phili, New York all passed on at
least one of these players. As long a GM does not make crazy
reaches or drop a tier to get a player. Example skipping Josh Smith for
Humphries, or Sheldon Williams over Roy and Gay and Sene over Rondo, Brewer,
Redick. Or Corey Brewer over his teammate who was clearly better in Noah. KOC does that.
This season draft tier are1st TierWall and Turner Second TierJohnson athletic wing(some people have Aminu in this tier)Favors and Cousins - Both are athletic freaks Third TierAldrich, Monroe, Aminu, and UdohThat is the top 9 players in the draft.
Take one of those nine and the Jazz will have done a good job. 4th
TierDavis, Orten and Whitesides - None of them scored more than 13 points
a games in college as the best player on their team. They are all going to take
to develop in NBA, as will Favors and Cousins, but those 2 are superior
athletically. You also have Babbit, Bradley in this tier. Bill
Simmons talked about how the last player like Cousins was Josh Smith off the
chart athlete. Now he might be a head case, but if he slips out of the top 5
picks the Jazz should do anything to trade up for him. Trade the ninth and next
years draft pick to GS for the 6th pick and take him. They may even try that
with Sac at the 5th pick.
The Okur/Booz/AK experiment has become to expensive to continue. It was a good
move at the start. It produce a playoff team fast and then produced several
4th/5th playoff type teams. It is time to intelligently move on to
the next step. Okur has declined every year since 2006. We have seen Booz's best
year. AK may go or resign for less. There is about 44-47 million
tied up in those 3 players depending on if Booz is resigned. They are not
capable of better than a mediocre playoff team. Their collective salaries
strangle player development and getting decent role players. The
Jazz have no choice but to move forward. Blauch has some excellent
comments above. If the Jazz get one good player in this draft it will solve one
problem. That still leave the MLE and the Harp exemptions and trades. The Jazz may not be able to fix all of the problems this next year but they
should be able to make the playoff until the New CBA is in place. It
may take 2 or more years to become a contender. Right now C/PF/SF
are the biggest needs.
Look outside the box. Larry Sanders for VCU has a lot of upside if we cannot get
Udoh. Sanders is a better offensive player and he is getting better every year
on defense. If we miss out on Udoh Sanders is the next best option. He is the
kind of player that you can tell him where to improve and he does. Every year at
VCU his stats got better in every category.
There is one thing that is not being emphasized on this thread. The
Jazz Defense is not good enough. BOS killed CLE and is now killing ORL with
defense. Both CLE and ORL are great offensive teams. The Okur/Booz
experiment was weak in defense and that mistake must not happen again.
"we hope that we hope we make the right choice." What the heck does that
mean?Name one Draft pick in the first round since Karl or John other
than Ak and D Will that has turned out to be great. You cannot.Sounds like the Jazz Scouts need to get off the "pot" and find another Wesley
Matthews or Paul Millsap.
Sanders is a very good prospect. A PF/C is a greater need. A 60/40
success ratio out of the 9th pick is a historically good ratio. Drafting is a
crap shoot. The Jazz are much better at finding players with a few years of
experience who fit the system. They are also very good at finding
flawed players in the 2nd round who have strengths that fit the system.Those players tend to still be flawed (too short, can't shoot) even after the
Jazz try to fix the problems.
In the first PHO/LA game Stoudemire had 3 rebounds compared to Odom's 19. That pretty much tells you the first step to beating the Lakers. You
have to out rebound them. If you can out rebound them then the
second step is to effectively guard them inside. The Jazz are
deficient in the front line. They can't defend LA well. The have trouble scoring
against LA inside. They lack the outside shooting to bomb LA. Udoh
or Monroe, maybe Monte would be a step in the right direction. I do
not know (besides playing time) what can be done to speed up Fes/Koufos or if
either will ever be good enough.The Jazz absolutely have to have a
decent C before they can even think about beating LA.
I just ran a preliminary analysis using the regular season WP48 scores to
predict the 2009 playoffs. I am not reporting all of the methods so do not bet
your house as you do not know how to adjust the data. WPs for
2008-09LA 146HOU 131 with Ming, without Mutumbo (both injured).DEN 113POR 113SA 103UT 91NO 86First
roundLA > UTDAL > SAHOU > POR2nd RoundLA >
HOUDEN > DAL Finals LA > DENIn all
much ups except DAL > SA the team with the higher WP won. This is
preliminary evidence that reg season team WP can predict how far a team will go
in the playoffs. This still needs some refinement and a much larger
sample size across years of data. I will probably publish this in some journal
eventually. Remember, you do not know all of the right adjustments.
And there are additional refinements I can make for better accuracy.If the Jazz want to win a championship, they have to put the WP48 into the
team before the playoffs. Greg I hope you are listening. This can
save you millions in player and salary mistakes.
Every time I look at Greg Monroe I think "perfect for the Jazz." The guy's got
a handle, he's a phenomenal passer, he's got what seems to be a pretty deep jump
shot, and he's smart. Sure, he's not the defensive presence we need (although
he's probably better to guard the Lakers than Booz was), but I'd like to see the
Jazz address that issue at the 5, with Haywood. I would love to
see the Jazz make a run at Haywood and draft Monroe.
I've got a serious question here. Can somebody tell me the last time a team won
the championship when their best player was a PG? With the exception
of Magic--an oddity--the only one I can find in the last 20 years is Chauncy
Billups (03-04). Beyond that, MAYBE Isiah Thomas with the Bad Boys. That's all
I can find. As long as Deron's our best player, will we win a
championship? Just saying...
RE: blauchI don't get paid to draft for the Jazz, that
is supposed to be the job of the so-called experts the Jazz hired like oconnor
and his team.The question should be why are they not doing a BETTER
job, anyone can play safe, and have s nice safe mediocre
team as a result. sometimes you need to take risks, expecially
if you are drafting late in the draft. so far in the last decade
only 3 1st rounders have stuck, maybe more risk taking would be in order.all my list shows, if thejazz has stayed where they were in the
draft,even without dwill, you could still have avery
good team, even a better one.playing it safe does have it's
downside.but to answer your question, I have not had a
chance to look at the draft, I usually do not do that until after all the
predraft campsso Ican havethe best setof analysis and information
available.For BIGmen, I am leaning towards motiejunas, but
you never cantell with slavsudoh, no offensive game and old.whitside, longterm project, 6 years or more ifat allsanders may bethe
RE: blauchWhat I think the Jazz should do? move
up! An GET COusins, he is compared to moses malone, they say is a headcase, but said the same thing about karl
malone,Everyone will be kicking themselves for NOT getting
the ONLY legitimate star bigman in the the draft MOve up, I am thinking even trading dwill, and thier first rounder for him
could very well be worth it,if my list indicates anything, there have been plenty of very good points guards to find in the draft over
the years but not legitmate star bigmen.risk?
maybe, but how many times have the lakers traded away their whole
team to get a star bigman to build around, to win championships?wilt, kareem, shaq, gasol,if you are not lucky enough to draft
one, you have get one some way or another.EVERY championship team
has had one or more legitimate bigmen.(and don't bring up jordon, he
had longley, a very skilled though under achieving big with kukoc, and grant
and cartwright before that)Move up!you must have
skilled, and atleast athletic, bigs.So MOVE UP!
No on has really said, but you want to know who the jazz will make a mistake if
they don't draft orton, get morton with orton.
I was a little surprised the jazz didn't take afflalo a couple years ago, almond
wasn't a smart pick, when you compare what the jazz do to some of the better
drafting teams like suns, portland, spurs, these teams shame the jazz when it
comes to the draft. the jazz have done about average, everything considered.
these teams have draft philosphies, the jazz just pick almond not considering he
doesn't want to play defense, humphries and snyder was a debacle, no doubt about
it, what a wasted year at the draft. its time the jazz got a decent backup pg,
there were plenty of opportunities, but dorgan gragivic, not even able to cut it
in the adriatic league, i think the jazz must've thought they were picking goran
dragic instead, oooooppppsss!!!
I just ran the Eastern Conf for 2009 playoffs. The team with the higher team (my
adjusted) WP score won except for the BOS/CHI game. There seems to be one match
up in each conference where a good defensive team will beat a team with a higher
win score. So far this model is predicting 12 out of 14 match ups
right. If Greg will get the right players with high win scores and
enough total win score on the team he will have a contender not a pretender. High win scores are not always expensive. Sometimes they are rebounding
or defensive specialists more than scorers(which every body focuses on). DWill is absolutely right. Some pieces have to be added. Start with C
and make sure the PF is a very high WP48. PG is already covered. SF is important
and 3 point shooting/mid range jump shooting is needed to break the paint pack.
Good D is a top priority. The Jazz should be able to get an above
average C if they buy win scores instead of media pumped names with one of their
exemptions. Fes/Kouf may develop? That would help.
To answer a previous question about winning with a PG. Remember that the Jazz
run a system that is PG dependent. DWill partly determines the win score
(effectiveness) for the PF, the C and other positions. If he runs
the team poorly, makes bad passes, bad decisions, runs the wrong plays, plays at
the wrong pace, the win scores and the effectiveness of the other players
(especially PF) will suffer. For the Jazz to win they need 1. a great defense2. a great PG3. a great PF4. a very good
C5. a good SF6. a decent SG7. enough outside shooting.The Sloan system as he runs it is biased in favor of the PG and PF but
can be run thur the C (Okur with Booz hurt). It could also emphasize the SF and
SG a lot more if he choose to tweak it. The current crisis may force
the Jazz into correcting the mistakes of the past. It could also crash the team
if they insist on making the same mistakes over again. They have
known for years that Okur was in decline and a weak link. They resigned for
The wins score formula is very similar to the Jazz player evaluation model that
Larry developed years ago but which the organization does not appear to use or
follow. The Jazz evaluation model has the wrong weights on various
basketball behaviors but it has most of the right variables. If the
Jazz followed it or better yet use the correctly weighted win score system they
would not be making the mistakes they have made in the past. Organizations, particularly old school organizations rely too heavily on
observation. They fail to realize that there are perceptual biases that tend to
lead managers to make the wrong decisions based on observation alone. You need both quantitative analysis and observation to get a better
understanding. It is like getting a different camera angle of a
super model. She is the same reality but looks very different from different
camera angles. You need different camera angles to get closer to reality and
not deceive yourself with your own perceptual biases. To much of the
decision making has been ad hoc and flown by the seat of the pants.
Here are the wins scores for the 2010 playoffs for the Jazz players who played
most of the time. Millsap .272DWill .224Booz .182AK .130Korver -.014CJ -.054Price -.099Fes -.193Koufos was -.139 but had limited minutes. Gaines had the highest PG
score in the NBA but played a handful of minutes. OJ was really bad but only
played 7 minutes.A minus wp48 means you are hurting the team and
making a negative contribution. Boozer played 63% of his time at C
and the rest at PF. Millsap was more productive over the 8 games. Fes has a very long way to go. However, there were 7 Cs worse than him in the
playoffs. O'Neal, Collins, Miller, Mahinmi, Ratliff, Magloire, and Mullens. Millsap was the 3rd best PF in the NBA (among true PF with primary
minutes) behind Gasol and Nowitzki. Ty Thomas played well but had
only 68 minutes. The Jazz may want to find a way to get him. That is
a pretty good indication that Paul can step up when needed.
Note Boozer's big drop in WP48 from the regular season to the playoffs may have
something to do with playing C. Millsap only played PF and his
numbers jumped. He fared better against LA but he was playing PF. Keeping Booz to play C is paying blood to play him to play out of position and
get about 2/3 of his potential.It is far cheaper to go get Haywood
who had a very good playoff WP48 at .263 right below Bynum and right above
Camby. Haywood should get serious consideration if the Jazz can
figure out how to get him.
Bug,Have you posted the methodology for the WP48 score? Do you have
the methodology for Miller's evaluation model?
Jazz SmackI too think the Jazz should move up to get Cousins if
possible. I think he has Stoudemire Athletic ability with more of a Boozer
strength. But if he is not available to move up to. Right Now they
have Sac taking him at 5. I would trade the 9 and the Memphis pick for him -
unless Sac love Cousins. Then they need to take who ever left out
of Aldrich, Monroe, Aminu, and Udoh. Like I said - take 3rd Tier before
reaching on some prospect. The best example is Sene Scouts
kept saying that he was a big project (did have a 7'8 wing span - huge upside.
Ford had him at the 30 best prospect. Huge Reach at 10 - with maybe a 10%
chance of panning out. Seattle passed the following players because
they wanted to swing for the fencesRondoBrewerSefoloshaLowerlyMillsapGibsonRedickFarmerWilliamsPoweI know there were only 2 star - Rondo and
Millsap, but I rather have player who can play than a 10% chance of hitting a
Re: toddfromsantaanaI've said it before and I'll say it again....you
live in your own little world.
@ JaPacMac I am doing the Miller metric from memory. DN or SLT published it a
year or two ago. This is the simplest version of the win score
formula. There are other adjusted versions but this one can be computed directly
from each games box score. It measures basic fundamental behaviors that cause
95% of wins. It is very accurate on the team level and pretty good on the player
level. It is similar to the Miller Metric but the weights (betas)
are derived by regression and therefor accurate. The Miller Metric has weights
derived by rule of thumb. Basic Win Score formulaPoints
+ Rebounds + Steals + Assists + Blocked Shots — Field Goal Attempts
— Turnovers — Free Throw Attempts — Personal FoulsPoints, etc have a weight of 1 (beta of 1) while assists etc have a weight of
.5. These are linear approximations that will get you very close to
predicting +/- 2 total wins over a season of 82 games. Based on my
preliminary research with adjustments it can also be used to predict playoff
match ups. However, I am still refining that last part. DAL uses the proprietary WINVAL formula. Some NBA teams use metrics
extensively. Some don't.
The more I have looked at Larry Sanders the more I like what I see. He has a
good attitude, works hard, 7'5.75" wing span (great), 6 10.5 in shoes, huge
hands, 11" hand width, needs to gain weight.Uhoh has relatively small
hands 8.75, but he has a very good wing span 7'4.5", 6'9.75" height,(in shoes),
blocks shots better than Sanders, 3.7 (Udoh), 2.5 (Sanders). Udoh handles the
ball very well for his height, not sure how Sanders handles the ball.Aldrich 6'9 bare foot, long arms however (7'4.75"), 9.25" hands, only 236 lbs,
not very heavy for a center, repeating my self, I think we have two 7' centers
and drafting Aldrich would be giving up on at least one of them.With
Monroe, Udoh, Sanders, Davis, Whiteside (7'7" wing) there are to many PF
type(excluding Whiteside) to draft Aldrich.It will be interesting to see
who the Jazz bring in and how they show.Hopefully, their agents won't
advise them to have individual work outs only. I would like to see them play
against each other.
I agree Captain L. This is how I would do it. #1 trade for Cousins, #2- draft
Udoh if available #3- draft Monroe if available #4- draft Ed Davis #5- trade
down and take either Whiteside, Sanders, Orton.Anyone know how
Tomic and the guy from Serbia are doing? What happened to our future first round
pick from Dallas when we gave them our #19 pick? Also, explain to me the Memphis
pick we received for Brewer. Is it lottery protected?
re utes13-0Tomic is progressing very well, he's put on 20 pounds and
he's 1 of 5 players up for the top European league's version of rookie of the
year, and he could come over as soon as 2011, but personally I think it's more
likely he'll come over in 2012 because his buyout would be $7 million. If he
were in next year's draft he would be a late lottery pick for sure.The other guy (T.D.) will never come over but you can think of him as trading
glue so he still has some value.