Actually, I don't think Millsap can physically stand up to the 82 game grind of
the PF position. Thinking back 2 years ago when Boozer was hurt a lot, Millsap
was dinged up pretty good himself during that stretch of games where he had that
consecutive double-double streak.In my estimation, Millsap is best
served coming off the bench with Matthews and Ronnie Price. Hopefully, the Jazz
can add the PF they need in this years draft.
In comparison to Boozer though, Milsap has held up better. You counter your
argument in the same sentence, "...Boozer was hurt a lot, Milsap was dinged up
pretty good himself". At least Milsap wasn't "out", while our precious Boozer
was wearing suits. Milsap will be able to easily fulfill our PF role just fine.
With both Boozer and Milsap, it's giving them room to operate.....and we can
get this from the 5 spot.
The Booz/Okur experiment is a 2 part equation. Okur averaged 13.5
points and 7+ rebounds last year. One of the justifications for Okur at C was
his ability to shoot the 3 and pull the opponent C out, opening things up for
Booz. That may be misleading. Okur only averaged a little over 1
made 3 a game with 38% shooting. If you replaced Okur with an inside
out C who had a midrange shot and who was more traditional (a banger), the
rebounds should go up to about 10 per games. Each rebound is worth 1
point so the 3 points coming from Okur at the 3 line would not be lost.However, if you had players at the SG/SF who could shoot the extra 3s (better
%) you would raise the UT rebounding by 3 and get a better outside game. Okur can't rebound from the 3 line. If you got a C who
rebounded and played D better, you fixed 2 major weaknesses. If you shift the 3s
to the SG/SF you can play inside out. UT is weaker in rebounding and
3s than most playoff teams. Fix it.
On Booz/Millsap I will make detailed comments later when I have time. Booz had great numbers this year mostly because he is a great PF. However, he
stayed healthy (except for the last PHO game). Okur's and Millsap's numbers
dropped this year while Boozer's improved. There are team dynamics
for this. Okur deferred rebounds to Booz. Or Booz called for them. Millsap got
fewer minutes and in a back up role. DWill ran more of the offense
thru Booz. Boozer's numbers this year will be the best of his
career. Against LA Boozer was back to his fading jump shot and to
getting blocked. Millsap was able to go right at the trees inside
much better. He is quicker and more explosive in his inside moves and can attack
the LA bigs directly. Booz does not have that ability. Millsap still
gets blocked. He still gets shot over. He is not the PF of the future. But he is
cheaper than Booz. Millsap will put up just as good of numbers as
Booz. His win score will be just as good. AK can back him up. AK
needs cloned. Adjust the SF/SG/C.
RE doc33:I see no reason why Milsap wouldn't be able to manage playing 82
games a year, when considering he rarely misses games, and we're only talking
about playing 10 extra minutes/game. The Jazz are not going to get a PF in the
draft who would start over Milsap this year.As for Mathews off of
the bench, who is going to replace him in the starting line-up?
Boozer. Love Paul, but Boozer if I had to choose.
I think Milsap can put up the same numbers as Boozer and play better defense,
our team is quicker when Milsap is in, but as Sloan said, who will replace
Milsap? for sure will be our 1st round pick for this draft.
So far in their careers Booz has proven to be better if you measure being better
by scoring and rebounds but Milsap did show in the playoffs that he can be as
productive as Booz. Paul did step up and play better than he had, he has more
agility than Booz and that helped him score against the trees of LA better than
Booz could. Milsap is a better defensive player and he is more durable.
Financially signing Booz would seriously hurt the Jazz for any flexability
regarding player moves.The fact that Booz & Milsap are very similar in
size, & productivity and that with them we can't compete against the tall,long
athletic bigs of LA & other elite teams means Booz has to go and we need to make
decisions for the future accordingly. Finding a good 4 or 5 in the draft usually
means you need to have a top 5 or top 10 pick and considering that the Jazz
usually draft in the 20's, we probably need to use this pick on a long,
athletic, shotblocking 4.
Boozer leaving is the only way the Jazz can get better. AK and Paul will take
care of the PF position. Jazz need another center to compliment Okur.
As more information comes out regarding the players available around #9 my
opinion very easily could change but right now I like Ekpe Udoh. He is 6'10,
long, athletic, shot blocker, defender and handles the ball very well for a 4.
He blocked 3.7 shots per game last year, has a 7'4 1/2 wing span. Greg
Monroe 6'10/11 of Georgetown, lefty, teams offense ran thru him, rebounds
well,7'2 wing span, versatile, block 1.6 per game, good passer, unselfish. Either one of these guys look like they would be a good pick up. I like how
Udoh blocks shots so well,it would be interesting to have them both come to the
same workout and see how they compete against each other and in structured
workouts designed to evaluate their talent.
I am going to make both the pro and con arguments for Boozer. I personally feel
the team is better off in the long run moving beyond Booz. In the short run it
is a difficult year or two. 1. In 32 seasons only 6 teams have won a
championship having only one player with a WP48 higher than .200. Most
championship teams have 1 player above .300 plus 2 above .200. WP48 is
essentially win score adjusted for 48 minutes of playing. 2. This
year (2010) Booz was .291, DWill .239 and AK .221. Millsap was .143. Last year
Millsap was .229 and Booz was .158. Starting at PF jumps your WP48. 3. If Booz leaves his WP48 has to be replaced by Millsap and AK or a PF back
up. Then AK's WP48 at SF has to be replaced. 4. Booz was .251 in
2008, .345 in 2007 and .248 in 2006. We have probably already seen Booz's best
year. 5. Millsap's best year was 2009. He has added a jump shot and
should continue to improve.6. AK's WP48 will improve some as he
plays at PF. Millsap/AK can replace Booz.
Everyone keeps saying we need a new center to help Okur. It doesn't seem
to matter how many times we point out that Fes had the best plus / minus of any
player on the team. That means while he was on the floor his team (Jazz) scored
more than their opponent. That is what we want isn't it! Fes will only get
better with playing time. Be patient and let's hope the coaches work hard with
him and KK.With Fes and KK the Jazz have two 7 footers that have potential
and just need to be developed.Two areas of need defensive/shotblocking PF
to replace Booz and an athletic 3 (that can shoot) to back up AK and eventually
replace him.CJ filled in at the 3 Ok last year but he is more suited to
play the 2.
None of Booz/Millsap/AK are the right PF to beat LA. To get the
right PF UT will have to draft the right one. It will take 2-5 years to develop
a draftee. The current version of the Sloan flex is overly reliant
(held hostage to) the PF position. It is extremely weak at the SG position. They
are too one dimensional.There is equifinality. There are several
approaches that will produce a championship team with roughly equal costs. All
approaches will have some weaknesses and some different strengths. In plain English there is more than one way to skin a cat or achieve a goal.
The Jazz are fully capable of winning a championship with Millsap at
PF but only if they put more WP48 into other positions. I maintain
that UT will not win a championship with Booz unless they do put more WP48 into
other positions. With Okur out it is very tempting to give Booz a
lot of money to "save" next year. We need to continue to rebuild
now. Booz will never be better and his contract will kill the Jazz
in 2013-2016 and sooner when he gets hurt.
Re Bugoff: I appreciate your reseach and stats, they are very interesting. Keep
up the good work.
It is not just losing Booz that has to be addressed. The C is a MAJOR issue. In the playoffs Fes's points and rebounds when adjusted for minutes
played (18 vs 29) were just as good as Haywood who started for DAL. However that
is still not as good as Okur's regular season numbers. Assuming that
Fes/Koufos play C next year due to money issues. Additional WP48 has to be put
into the SG/SF positions. Fes/Koufos will improve (rapidly) with playing time,
but the Jazz need at least 10 points and 10 rebounds from the C position in 30
minutes to compensate for losing Okur. If AK plays at PF 1/2 of the
time, his WP48 has to be replaced at SF. CJ played really well this last month.
Will he do it all of next year? If he does then he can provide more WP48 at SG
by backing up Mathews and playing some at SF. The Jazz need a NBA
ready 6'10", defending, shooting, rebounding SF. A SF/PF tweener would be ideal
and much cheaper than the ultimate PF.The team needs more WP48 and
more balance across positions.
The New CBA may change all of the rules for winning a championship. It is not
wise to give Booz or any player a big multi year contract prior to the CBA.AK will be expiring next year. He also is getting older. He will have to
be replaced or resigned at a lower figure. It is far better for the
team in the long run to take the 15-17 mill it would take to sign Booz and start
getting the right players at PF and SF for reasonable before the New CBA. Some of that money could go into a SG but if CJ plays to potential he
and Mathews are good enough there for the next couple of years. To
win a championship the Jazz need 3 players with WP48s near .300 and they need
the collective team to have a high enough WP48. This later issue killed the
Stockton/Malone teams. Several Western Conf teams have multiple high
WP48 players with good supporting casts. 3 of the Eastern teams do. The Jazz have to build a team that can beat LA. They can not do that relying
on DWill plus Booz or Millsap at PF.
It is worth noting that Fes now has an agent with a long bad history with the
Jazz. Do not count on Fes being with the Jazz in the fall. They had
their chances to lock him up before now and played games with him. The Jazz organization is really not very bright sometimes. Koufos
better work on his A game. He could be the starting C this fall. There are several good reasons to do really well in drafting in the 1st round.
The Jazz are really lousy. I would say that their very poor drafting
record in the first round is a major reason why they rarely get higher than a
4th seed or go deep in the playoffs.
The more I think about this the more I realize the Jazz have trapped themselves
once again. Fes' agent will demand blood, the Jazz will low ball and
Fegan will send Fes else where. The Jazz will be under extreme pressure to
resign Booz so they can play small ball. Booz will demand bank and shaft the
Jazz in the longer run or until the next injury. They do not have
the money nor the trade assets to go get a good C. They might get someone like
Haywood for the MLE but DAL can give him more. If they can't resign
Fes they may lean toward drafting Cole Aldrich. He does not solve the C or the
PF problems. They may be able to sign and trade Booz for some help.
They may be able to move AK's expiring contract. There is a reason
why Sloan talked about tanking for 6 years as a way to get enough talent to win
a championship. The Jazz may need a C and a PF. Where do they get a
great one for reasonable?
How viable is it to bring Tomic over? This does not look good. I do not see a C
in the top 10 who would really help the Jazz immediately. Cousins
even if they got a chance to get him seems like a NON SLOAN player. The Jazz should have extended Fes before his agent went to work for SAC and
Fes hired a major headache as a replacement.
Why did not the Jazz put a team option into Fes's contract last fall? If they
are going to develop these 2nd rounders then they need to tie them up instead of
wait to get mugged by the agents and teams like POR in FA. I am sure
that negotiating with many of these agents is difficult but the Jazz can do
better than they have been doing.
@CaptainL. I agree that Fes will improve and become part of the solid rotation
with time. But I think the fact that he has the best plus/minus on the team is a
little skewed, simply because he played very few minutes when compared to the
other players on the team (probably gaines and jeffers and KK are the only
players that played fewer minutes). Another red flag is, aside from the
playoffs, he only played at the end of games against the other teams' scrubs
when we were either blowing out another team or we were getting blown out. Like
I said, I agree that he will get better and will probably become a huge asset to
the team, but for now his stats are a little fuzzy given the situation.
Where to do the Jazz get the money to resign Boozer for 3-5 million more, resign
Fes or replace Fes at C and resign or replace Mathews. Ditto for Korver. They could let Korver go but the Jazz were a .500 team before Korver and
also when he was injured this year. That shows you how really unbalanced and
deficient the Jazz are in 3 point shooting. Take Korver away and the Max
contract DWill/Booz are a .500 team. Both Mathew's and Fes's agent
can demand up to 5 Mill each (some rule that it can be higher). The
Jazz only have 1 MLE. If they lose Mathews or Fes do they use it to replace one
of them? Do they resign Korver?Until the Jazz get Fes and Mathews
resigned all of this talk about resigning Booz is moot. There is no money to
give Booz a raise. Sign Booz and you lose Mathews and Fes to some
other team.Can you really replace Korver with a Dleaguer?
they could have got millsap for a lot less but had to play games thought they
would get him for nothing like david lee. should have signed fess or had a
option. could end up with matthews korver fes boz all gone.
The Jazz knew they were going to keep Wes when they did not cut him. Why did
they not get an extension then. They knew they were going to keep him when they
started playing him.The Jazz specialize in 2nd rounders and
Dleaugers. They spend a lot of time and money developing them. Why
don't those first contracts include a 2nd and 3rd year team option so that the
team is protected right up front on the first contract. I do not
know if this is KOC or who but someone is doing bad initial contracts and it is
costing the Jazz. If a player is good enough to get the first
contract it should automatically have a team option in it. The Jazz are
constantly putting themselves in binds and needlessly costing money by thier
BAD business practices. I hope they don't make the same mistake on
Gaines. How much does it cost to add a team option on the first contract when
the Jazz have all of the leverage? Where is the communication
between Sloan and KOC? Does he know which player are going to make it? Team option on OJ?
Re Bugoff : I said I enjoyed your statistics, but as much as statistics are
interesting they don't always tell the hole truth. I'm really pulling for
Fes to be resigned and to get the PT so he can develop & I have been saying his
plus / minus should show how valuable he is but I realize he is a long way from
being the player we want and need in the middle. The thing with Fes is he is
young and has great potential and he effects the game defensively with his
ability to alter shots and bang etc. His potential may be the key to wanting and
hoping he stays with the Jazz and develops. You may use statistics to say
the Jazz need Korver but that is where I say statistics are misleading. I
watched all the games and don't feel Korver had much impact on them, (I'm sure
there were a few but). plus finding a wing to spread the floor should be much
easier than finding a 7'1, 300 lb center. The play of CJ and Mathews also make
the need to resign Korver less. Both of them should imporvenext year.
The Jazz got Booz and Okur because they were available and would improve the
team. They have done remarkably well, producing playoff teams. Because the Jazz love continuity and resist change it is imperative that they
get players at each position who have the characteristics that will maximize the
Sloan Flex. The past 3 years the Jazz have had players who were not optimal for
their positions. DWill may be the only one. AK is pretty good at SF.
He could shoot better. Booz is a great PF but he is too short and
can't handle tall line ups. Okur is good but a Euro C and not ideal for the
flex. Brewer was very good but could not shoot. The combination of
less than optimal players at so many positions and the continuity bias prevent
the Jazz from creating a contender. Over the next 2 years the Jazz
need to carefully get players in each position who will maximize the
effectiveness of the team and create a contender. Then continuity
bias will work in their favor. Forget the projects except for back
ups. Go get the ideal player at each position. Use the
draft/Trade for picks.
Cap L The stats are only an indicator. They do not prove or disprove anything.
They are evidence just like observation. However, they can give you a different
camera angle. Korver can be replaced but the new player will have to
learn the system and rebound and play better D. Korver improved his
D a lot. He is still not quick enough. The market will determine Korver's price.
The Jazz financial situation will also. Many people feel Korver may be over
priced in a bad economy. We will see. To me Korver is an important
back up. Sometimes he is a closer. He is quite useful to the Jazz. It is a
question of how much they should pay. The key point is that the Jazz
are a .500 club with DWill/Booz but without enough 3 point shooting. They need
more than Korver for 3 point shooting but he is enough to get them into the
playoffs but not enough to contend. CJ is still a ? Mathews will
improve shooting. The 3 capability and the D have to be improved. If
Korver can improve his quickness he could really help both himself and the team.
There is one thing I forgot about. Did not the Jazz get a trade exemption in the
Harp deal? That can be used plus the MLE to get a couple of 5-6 mill players.
That give the Jazz more flex and bargaining power with Mathews, Fes
and Korver. Booz will probably get traded for picks and who know what. He can
get more money and pick his destination. The more I remember how
many games Booz has missed the more I realize the Jazz have to move on. Petro is a FA. He is cheap. He can play well occasionally. The Jazz have
options to fill some holes and not be any worse off than they were with
Bugoff it becomes "a math issue", money has to freed up somewhere. I take my
priorities are resigning Fes, saving money for the top pick and Wes Matthews.Having said that I would like to acquire a consistent shooter and
potential 15-18 ppg. John Salmons would be a good acquisition and fits the low
key maintainence and team guy Sloan and "his sloanaholics" look for.This means people have to be let go that would be Boozie the Snoozie and
Korver.Miles can replace Korver with his 3 point shooting ability
streaky as he is. CJ grew up and had his best year. As he turns 24, he seems
to now be the dependable pro we hoped all along and he can get better.He can fill Korver role and has much more athleticism to be a potential
complete player.Millsap will play small forward and with the
interchangable parts he can play power forward depending on matchup.If we are stuck with Kirilenko and his "drama" he can play power forward with
Okur with Okur startingThe Center can either be a free agent vet and
Fes rotating, Fes 15- 20 min ppg or draft pick and Fes