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Home sales plunging in Utah

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Realtor/Broker Jinx | 4:19 a.m. April 24, 2008
The realtors and brokers will be along soon. The Utah housing market has a long way to fall even though you don't like it. Get used to it.
Will it never end? | 5:42 a.m. April 24, 2008
Utah is just lagging when it comes to the severe housing woes it's about to endure. The quote in the article "it isn't a bad market, it's a changing market" seems really off base. When there is a huge drop in sales this only increases supply making home prices drop. As for Adkins home selling for 749k - just let it go and break even if you can. You'll be lucky if you can walk away with no loss. Many of us from CA and other places have had mind blowing loses. Hang on tight - it's going to be a bumpy ride.
Conejo | 6:38 a.m. April 24, 2008
How can this be? I just read an article recently saying Utah wasn't being effected very much at all. Oh wait. That was an article according to realtors. This article is about the actual numbers. You don't think the realtors would try to make things look better than they are just so someone would feel comfortable buying a home right now do they? I am going to have to re-evaluate how honest I think realtors are now! DUH!
Comments continue below
Panic? | 7:21 a.m. April 24, 2008
The statistics don't lie. A price correction is needed considering household incomes. However, life goes on. If you are considering the purchase of a home, do it when the time & price are right for you. I believe that home prices still have a ways to fall, but I don't think it's the end of the world either. As the dollar continues it's decline, home prices are artificially coming down even more. I expect the housing market to continue to be tough on builder, realtors, & brokers alike.
analyze this | 7:34 a.m. April 24, 2008
Put the numbers into context: 1st Quarter of last year was astromically and unsustainably high. Homebuilders have almost stopped building, slowing supply. Utah's population is still booming increasing demand. Rental vacancy is extremely low or non-existent. Home prices have dropped. Income is still on the rise. Mortgages are still obtainable if you have good credit. Utah is a great place to live, and with more and more people moving here everyday . . . they're going to have to put a roof over their heads eventually. The market has no choice but to turn. It'll likely be sooner rather than later.
jacko | 7:40 a.m. April 24, 2008
These numbers are a joke...the market is much worse than these realtor fabricated numbers. Look at the chart..it says Draper is up from last year...its the home of Suncrest. Prices in Draper are off at least 25%..some worse. This is a propoganda fluff piece. What a joke...all I want is the truth, and we're not getting it from this article. Oh, and yes, its going to get worse as we march toward a 30 yr fix of over 7 by this time next year.
Marketing Plan? | 7:45 a.m. April 24, 2008
The only marketing plan realtors come up with is lowering the price. Why realtors have such a protected market is beyond me.

The Wasatch Front was one of the last to the housing bubble party and will be one of the last to the collapse, but it is coming.

The notoriously conservative banks lost their way for a few years. We will be back to "talk to me when you have a 20% down payment" by next year. Many areas of the country are already there. If you can't save a 20% down payment you really don't have the discipline or financial ability to own a home.
Scandia Partners | 7:51 a.m. April 24, 2008
Uh...income is not on the rise here..raises are miniscule compared to inflation, like everywhere else. The comment by Analyze this...he must be a realtor, because only a realtor could make a dumb comment like that.
Time to buy for some | 7:52 a.m. April 24, 2008
Homes have come down to a more reasonable level. For those of us looking for a good buy the time has come. Look for desperate builders in good rental areas. New construction seems to have the best buys with desperate builders trying to liquidate. Stay away from the interest only loans and buy a home you can afford. If you can't sell, look for good renters or do a lease with option to purchase to offset you're house payment. Rates are still great and the rental market is only getting stronger. And lastly, quit listening to the media; they are the ones that started this mess.
Appraiser | 7:57 a.m. April 24, 2008
I agree with analyze this. Market Conditions have dropped off a bit, however, we are bumping along the bottom and should see an upswing relatively soon. Building Permits are increasing greatly from this year. With the spring weather homes sales will increase and prices will edge up. Unfortunately, if you wait you will miss the lowest prices, so buy now. Buyer's have a ton of negotiating power right now and can present offers that would not have warranted a second glance last year.
Debbie | 7:58 a.m. April 24, 2008
The artificial inflation of housing prices was a major contributor to the problem. A couple of years ago things went nuts and now homeowners are saying, "what? My house is worth more?" because they compare to where it was and aren't willing to drop to a reasonable level. There are plenty of people who want to buy homes and can get financing in the range below $200K but the houses aren't there. As long as they keep building homes for just the wealthy and the existing homes hang on to the exaggeratedly inflated prices, buyers are scarce. First time buyers, especially with young families an single wage-earners are left out in the cold.

Now they're blaming it on financing when it was the "creative financing" that got people into the subprime market and adjustable rate mortgages. Going back to a more traditional financing in order to stabilize the economy is a good thing but still there is a limit to what people can afford to buy. Obviously the subprime didn't give them the edge they were hoping to find. Now they face foreclosures. People need to buy within their means, but where are those homes they could actually afford?
hc | 8:02 a.m. April 24, 2008
People often misinterpret the statistics. Just because the median price declines it doesn't mean that every property in a given market has declined in value. In the case of the Summit County condo statistic in the article, the prior year included many sales in several new relatively high priced condominium projects. They are now sold out and the "average" sale recently has included a higher percentage of older, smaller units. You have to compare "comparable" properties in order to obtain any meaningful figures. Condo prices (within the same project) have gone down in some areas of Summit Country. The decline is generally in the 5% to 10% range, not the 30%+ quoted in the article.
LCH | 8:06 a.m. April 24, 2008
Should you be a seller entering the market, you need to be the "Best of the Best!" Pay attention to detail and know that buyers are looking more than ever at condition. Competion is strong & Utah prices are holding steady. Be flexible with your PRICE but PERFECT with your Condition! Be selective when hiring a Realtor, interview several agents including a call to their Brokers. The decision you make just may be the decidng factor to your successful and profitable experience. Realtor are bound by a "Code of Ethics" and protect your personal property rights! Be deligent, home ownership is still the American Dream!
New Home Sales | 8:15 a.m. April 24, 2008
I sold new homes in Vegas and the funny thing is if you read the Las Vegas Review journal a year and a half ago it would be almost identical to what you are reading here in Utah. Las Vegas has a great economy too, but if people can't sell their homes in our feeder markets i.e. California, Nevada, Arizona, then home prices will continue to fall. My wife and I just recently moved back and went house shopping, what a joke. You have all these little builders who are living a pipe dream with some of these prices. Anyone can definitely afford to wait. Prices will decline further.
Truth | 8:32 a.m. April 24, 2008
Pretenders get what they deserve. Solvency will always rule. What about all the tricky toys cluttering drive ways and garages? They will be gone also. You reap what you sow. Get a clue--live within your means folks, quit pretending.
Market Correction | 8:36 a.m. April 24, 2008
This is a needed correction in a market that was inflated due to easy credit.

Make no mistake... It will be painful for those who bought high, and for those who invested big with thoughts of huge returns, but in a year or two, prices will be back in line with values and incomes and our economy will better off.
Sub-Prime Thinking | 8:38 a.m. April 24, 2008
To Conejo (added emphasis on the last syllable): Realtors don't cause housing prices to fluctuate any more than charter ship captains cause the waters of Lake Powell to rise and fall.

Everyone is in the same boat. Market forces are far beyond the control of any group or individuals.

For the market as it is today, not how it was, or how you wish it to be: houses properly priced are selling. If they are not selling, they are not properly priced.
Good Morning! | 8:51 a.m. April 24, 2008
Time to wake up! And trust me, it ain't gonna be a pretty day. Prices are going to drop significantly, like most other places where housing prices were fueled by speculation, speculation, speculation. (I can't even count how many people I know in Utah who now call themselves "real estate investors.") Sure, Utah's a great place to live. But no one can pay $300k for a "starter home" when they only make $30k for a "starter wage."

Welcome to economic reality.
illusion of investment | 8:54 a.m. April 24, 2008
People have woken up from the delusion that a house is some kind of magical risk free investment and now see them as places to live with both advantages and drawbacks over renting.
Most of the housing craze of recent years was home buyers imagining they were investing in magic money machines. They bought the biggest things they could get a note for because they were told it would mean more profits.
Prices | 8:55 a.m. April 24, 2008
Home sales will slow, but prices here in utah are not going to drop significantly. People will just hold onto their homes for the time being. Prices in utah are DIRT CHEAP still, compared with much of the rest of the country. Mark my words, there is and will continue to be a slowing of new construction and sales, but the market will not tank here.
scott | 8:59 a.m. April 24, 2008
How is it that any other business gets sued for false advertising, but you see billboards and TV ads telling people that all these housing and economic woes being reported all around the country are not going to apply to us here in Utah. "Go out and buy your dream house; it's a great investment" they say. Since when did Utah secceed from the US? I heard that same thing in Texas several years ago just before the bottom dropped out and 40% of recently built neighborhoods were eyesore forclosures with grass as high as your knees. So after this all shakes out with a 30% or 40% reduction 2 years from now, are those who placed the false advertising and enticed unsuspecting and trusting individuals to plop down their life savings to "live in Zion" so that their sales numbers and incomes won't completely shut off--so are they going to step up and help pay for the huge losses? Law suits are made of such things.

Utah was slow coming into the strong run up and is slow going into the correction as well, but mark my words, we're in for a rocky ride that could last a decade.
Concerned home owner | 9:15 a.m. April 24, 2008
Appraiser:

Which crystal ball are you looking at? A bottom is forming? Sure it is. How is a new couple supposed to afford a home with prices where they are? Where are all those new move ins coming from? CA? They are in worse situation now. Logic dictates that without people to afford those high-priced houses (and wages are not increasing that much), the likelihood of continuing upward movement on prices is suspect.

Now's the time to buy? With what? I bought earlier. Am I supposed to have sold my home already so I can buy another one? Those transaction costs eat up a ton of "equity." Where am I supposed to get the money to buy now?

You're like the mutual fund managers screaming out "Now is the time to buy!" What an amazingly good crystal ball they have.
Real Estate Broker | 9:20 a.m. April 24, 2008
Jacko and Marketing Plan its all in the numbers and someone's interpretation of those numbers. Here are the facts that I just Pulled up on the MLS for all of yu to decide. There are currently roughly 21,579 homes on the market on the Mls (includes the whole stae of Utah but limited in St George area) there are about 3500 homes under contract which represents 14% of the homes on the market are due to be sold or closed in the next few weeks which means you have to be in the top 14% cheapest best home in your price range/area to get a home sold. We as Realtors don't determine the Market values.....You do ....along with the media's positive reporting make the market. Perspective is 80% reality is 20%
Amanda | 9:21 a.m. April 24, 2008
It's about time! How dumb are people to think that realty is the "best investment" these days? Look around! Utah's not immune to the patterns of the economy! It's rediculous the people that were getting mortgages they couldn't afford! I don't have much sympathy. THIS is why my husband and I haven't bought a house- we can't afford the 20% down yet! It's simple math! People always have to learn about life the hard way...
Anonymous | 9:25 a.m. April 24, 2008
couldn't agree more with New Home Sales, people in Utah are so naive, or think they are better than everyone else, and the housing market won't affect them. My home in California was worht 450K two years ago, now I'd be lucky to sell it for 280K, so if your trying to sell your house for 400K right now, you'd be smart to except an offer of 325K, becuase if you don't, you'll be kicking yourself a year from now. Good luck you overpriced sellers. Don't be greedy, you'll pay for it in the end.
bergstro | 9:35 a.m. April 24, 2008
I love realtor and mortgage brokers! There can't exist a more deluded or dishonest profession. No matter what the market or interest rates are doing, there has never been a better time to buy/sell/refinance. The 6% commission is a scam.

Eventually, realtors will be copmletely replaced by online services. The profession will be completely phased out in 12 years.
Frustrated | 9:37 a.m. April 24, 2008
Utah Housing prices are a joke. Greed brought this on from all levels: Realtors, Brokers, and buyers. It's an oxymoron to read the papers asking the Realtors Association "How is the Housing Market" and they always say "It's Great" when we all know it's NOT!

24% of the loans taking out in 2005-06 were subprime in Utah. It's going to get worse and those who allowed it to happen are going to suffer financially. Except the realtors, brokers and builders who capitalized off the market. Greed rules in Utah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Observer | 9:48 a.m. April 24, 2008
From reading this thread, you sure can tell who the realtors/contractors are.
Listing prices are dropping | 9:57 a.m. April 24, 2008
Part of my job involves analysis of local economic data and I was recently instructed to put additional emphasis on housing research.

I'm currently seeing a steady decline in list prices. Many show up in the MLS as relatively new listing (less than 60 days) when in fact the same properties are being relisted at lower prices and have actually been on the market for a nearly a year and some even longer. On the other hand sale prices are indeed holding steady but only in homes that are accurately priced. There are excessive numbers of homes that are not price accurately and those are the ones that are not selling.

wait a year | 10:09 a.m. April 24, 2008
until you buy as prices will continue to drop. You do not need a realtor to buy or sell a home. We have sold 3 homes by ourselves and received top dollar saving us over 40K in commissions and when we have purchased a house by ourselves, we have bought some at great deals when dealing with the homeowner alone.
Curious | 10:13 a.m. April 24, 2008
So does this mean assessment values and property taxes will go down accordingly this year and next year?? Seems only fair, but I won't hold my breath.

Glad I'm not having to sell my home right now. Good luck to all of you who are; and take the advice someone gave above, buy only what you can afford! Don't be house-poor. Live within your means.
Gee I wonder... | 10:40 a.m. April 24, 2008
Gee I would buy a house in Utah if my home in Florida would sell.

Right now I am just renting. I have seen some of the houses in Utah that are for sale. A lot of them are outdated, need a lot work or really overpriced.

Plus who wants to buy a house with a swamp cooler when there is a things called air conditioning.
Reality | 10:44 a.m. April 24, 2008
Why are you looking at a $300,000 starter home? Also, if you're only making $30,000 a year, you should probably be renting. If home prices drop to the point where people making $30,000 a year can afford homes, I'm going to buy three.

The reality is that the Utah housing market has been very very low for many years. Right now we are just catching up to where the rest of the nation was before the housing boom started. Utah is a destination for LDS members, retirees and people looking to move closer to their family. There is a lot of demand to live in Utah. That's the reason that wages are not as high as other places. People are willing to sacrifice to live here.
Ups and downs | 10:53 a.m. April 24, 2008
There's a rule when selling. Tell the buyer this is the best time to buy. Has a car dealer ever told you to wait and buy a car?

Once retires from California bought Utah homes. They visit Utah in June when the weather is wonderful and they have never spent a long March in Utah. People are so friendly when they see money.

Californians are holding off on retiring because they can't cash their homes in.

My question has been: when the boomers die off, who will buy their retirement homes in communities without a strong economic base?

What's the labor market in Kanab going to be in thirty years?

Utah could start marketing homes in China or Moscow.
Apples to Apples | 10:59 a.m. April 24, 2008
How about some better information from the Realtors.

The best indicators of how the market is doing ideally include how much the same home sold for now vs. last time it sold, how much homes are selling for per square foot, what amenities are included, and what concessions were offered.

All of the above items can drastically change how reality is viewed.

If a car dealer sells more Ferraris and less Camry's, the average sales prices of all cars sold will increase, even if comparatively speaking all the cars sold for a lower price.

If the median home sold last quarter was several square fee bigger and/or had more amenities, and/or was newer, and/or had more seller concessions, the median home price could easily have gone up when the price vs. value has decreased dramatically.

Is that what has happened in Utah?

The fact that the number of listings has increased to record levels and the number of sales has dropped is a good indication that it has.

In addition, based on the number of sales reported for the 1st quarter of 2008 vs current listings, Utah County has over a two year supply of homes on the market.

Yikes!
Really? | 11:02 a.m. April 24, 2008
Reality,

I suppose you are involved in realty because you don't seem to be in touch with reality.
Kevin In Texas | 11:10 a.m. April 24, 2008
Utah is not immune to the falling housing market. It will fall just like the rest of the nation. I have just finished graduate school and got a job in Utah. Unfortunately, my new salary is still not enough to afford a home along the wasach front. Home prices way over shot the true values of homes. Now is the day of reconing and a fall in home prices. If they fall far enough, which I hope they do, I will be able to buy a home there.
Sagacious Inquisitor | 11:14 a.m. April 24, 2008
Jasen Lee,

Interesting article, but largely just filler words.
And where did those numbers really come from???
Davis County sales down only 26.56% and prices up by 0.65%?

The MLS is the only practical source of real estate sales information. Other numbers exist, but wouldn�t greatly change those on the MLS.

According to WFRMLS Davis County single family residence (SFR) sales 1st Quarter 2008 totaled 1,043.
SFR sales 1st Quarter 2007 totaled 609.
That�s a sales reduction of 42%. Not 26%
The corresponding price change looks like an increase of 4.3% not 0.65%.

Statewide SFR sales during 1st Quarter 2008 totaled 8,790.
Statewide SFR sales during 1st Quarter 2007 totaled 5,371.
That�s a sales reduction of 39%.
The corresponding price change represents a reduction of 2.2%

And, the touted efforts of Nicholl Coldwell in helping Paul Johansen �sell his house in only 45 days� appear to consist primarily of their convincing him to reduce his price by 9.0%; not that they had a marvelous marketing plan.

Pricing of homes is in the hands of Sellers and Buyers.
When either gets greedy, things get out of balance.
When they get realistic, sales numbers adjust correspondingly.
I Like Apples to Apples | 11:21 a.m. April 24, 2008

I've never seen more torturing of the statistics than when I worked in the property business (I got sick of all the deception and refused to participate)I'm also a guy who got an "A" in my college statistics class. My teacher was great. I learned to be very skeptical of all the spinning done with statistics.

Everywhere I go, there are commercial for rent ("available") signs. I have been watching the MLS for two years and it has been in a steady growth trend. It used to have about 9,000 houses for sale. Now almost 22,000. The empty lots are through the roof.

Think for yourself. How can you trust someone who profits when you buy, whether it's a good move for you or not.








re Reality | 11:22 a.m. April 24, 2008
Wow Reality, I want some of what you are smoking! Life seems so much easier when you explain it!

Hey all! Our housing prices need to catch up to the rest of the country! Darn it! We are good enough! Oh wait, our wages are much lower than the rest of the country? Don't worry! Just buy a house! Buy three at that price! Everything will be all right!

Unless you understand ECONOMIC REALITY. Which you obviously don't. Do some reading, then come back to the board. Check out some Case-Shiller analysis. Look at the trends described in the OFHEO statistics. I ain't a realtor. I ain't a house hater. (I have two.) What I despise are people who hype up and overinflate a market so that fairly common people now can't afford to buy what used to be a fairly common purchase. Don't be fooled. House prices won't go up for years.
Utah | 11:26 a.m. April 24, 2008
Good. The housing prices in Utah are over valued.
Taxes | 11:31 a.m. April 24, 2008
So I'm sure Salt Lake County will hop right on this story and lower my property taxes.

Ahhh, to dream...
Just remember the term | 11:48 a.m. April 24, 2008
LIQUIDIFICATION!! because that is what you get when you build on an old seabed or buy when you shouldn't , either way nature will take of it!
Remember which term? | 12:11 p.m. April 24, 2008
Did you mean liquefaction? Where soil becomes fluid, kinda' like in an earthquake?

Or were you talking about LIQUIDIFICATION where coal is changed to an oily liquid?
Hugh G. Hater | 12:15 p.m. April 24, 2008
+1 on Debbie's comment.

Prices will remain artificially high as long as "custom" home builders continue to build mcmansions on vacant lots in aging neighborhoods.

If you live in it, it is not an investment.
Newly Wed | 12:16 p.m. April 24, 2008
I'm getting married and my fiance and I were hoping to get into a house under in the 170-200k range in the Orem area. I quickly came to the reality that the only houses under 200k are REALLY OLD, REALLY SMALL, IN A BAD NIEGHBORHOOD, OR A COMBINATION OF ALL 3. What a joke. I then decide, "hey, maybe we can just buy a condo?" After looking into those, I quickly realize that for something newer or nicer we're gonna pay well over 150k. And with HOA fee's as high as they are, my monthly payment is almost as much as a house payment. So what do I do? There just aren't any good options for someone like me who makes around 45k. Looks like I will just rent and wait for people to lower their prices. I'm assuming that there are many other people in my situation that are right on the edge of being able to afford something and aren't quite sure what to do?
Great Point | 12:16 p.m. April 24, 2008
Housing has almost always been a good investment....until now. As the baby-boomers start moving into retirement homes or in with their children, who is going to move into their homes? As food, gas, & everything else keeps rising faster than income, where are people going to cut back? I'd love to see the statistical correlation comparing the number of U.S. homes, the median home price, the number of people living in the U.S. and the median household income all from 1980 vs. today. The economic pinch is also impacting the number of children couples decide to have. As the number of children being born declines and the life expectancy increases, who is going to support our senior citizens? Housing issues....that is one small aspect of the economic mess we have gotten ourselves into. Don't even get me started on federal, state, & local government deficits. Today's consumerism levels will hurt future generations. History is being written and the economic demise will be historically large.
Reality speaks. | 12:43 p.m. April 24, 2008
I never said homes would increase in price. I did say, the now is the time to buy argument is old.

I saw this drop a year ahead of it happening because I have seen four bubble pop. This was the largest bubble.

I saw the dot com crash and moved out of stocks.

I believe this market will crash allot more. I really see this crash as a element in a larger picture. If homes were stock, I would be selling short.

My point too was much of Utah's home prices where driven by other markets outside Utah. If we sneeze in California, Utah will catch a cold.

You would be a fool to purchase a home today. Start looking in eighteen months.
Almost Newlywed | 12:51 p.m. April 24, 2008
To Newly Wed:

My fiance and I only make combines about 45, and we found an respectable townhouse in a pretty good neighborhood for $120 in North Orem. I looked for 3 months, and it really was one of a kind.

Good luck! I would suggest finding a good place to rent, pay about 600 a month for a year or so and watch the market.

D.C. to Utah--buy now? Help! | 12:54 p.m. April 24, 2008
My husband and I are moving to SLC from Washington D.C. near the end of the summer--looking at Liberty Park/Avenues/Sugarhouse areas. From reading the remarks above, I'm beginning to think we should wait it out a bit before buying. Of course, the SLC realtor tells us we are "getting in at a great time," but I'm not so sure now that I have insights from you all that actually live there. Anyone have thoughts?

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