That was some fancy footwork. You can't use Wasatch Front incomes and then drive down the median home price by using the whole state. That double wide trailer in Green River doesn't count.

Kelly Matthews, Wells Fargo's well respected economist and Utah housing expert, published a report about 6 months ago that said basically Wasatch Front home prices have to drop by 20% or incomes have to increase substantially for the market to begin to make sense. Take a guess which one is happening.

whacha got for sale?

Actually, the data goes the other way - statewide (Utah) incomes and Salt Lake / Wasatch Front prices. So the double-wide guy's pulling down the income number but not the house price number. And that's a 4th quarter 2007 number for home prices, but only a 2006 income number. If you have a Wasatch Front only number for income, I'd be interested in what that is but I'm guessing it's higher than the state average.

According to the NAR report, median home prices have already dropped about 7.5% from where they were at the peak here ($247K to $229K). And I believe the average income increase was about 7.5% last year. So even if you accept Kelly Matthews nice round 20% number, about 15% of that 20% gap has already been closed between price reduction and income increase.

One other thing that these numbers don't account for is the changing mix between single family homes and condos. The median price of a condo is much lower and more and more first time buyers get condos because they're generally more affordable.

You "Hard Numbers Guys" are tiring. You are like the guys on CNBC that have been debating for months whether we are in a recession. You miss the forest for the trees. Housing has stalled and is tanking hard in Utah. People are paying higher costs for all their basic needs. Jobs are being lost. Be so good as to do a report for me so I can sell my house for more than anyone is willing to pay and so I can get the grocer to lower the price of groceries.

Now you can argue whether it's tomAto or tomOto.
Have at it!

I don't understand why the feds feel they have to bail out anyone, homeowner or large brokerage firm. Just make people take responsibility for their actions whether it's lenders, homeowners, mortgage brokers, hedge funds, or brokerage houses.

Let them all suffer a little and let folks sell their houses at market prices. This would correct the economy much faster than all this superficial propping up of the economy.

The lobbyists of the mortgage brokerage industry have gotten their way with the Bush administration, as well as, (of course), the big oil people. Therefore, the economy will continue to tailspin, because of this scenario.
Oh yes, once in awhile there will be days when Wall Street will spike upward, and the stock brokers will be doing their cheerleading on T.V., on those days. But the overall effect will be downward for many, many months. I am counting the days when George W. is finally gone. I took my 401K money out of the stock market at the end of last year and will not be riding down that slope. I plunked it into a stable income account, so that I can at least sleep at night. Utah people need to take a second look at which party is truly for your children and great-grandchildren. The Republican Party left me. I think it needs an overhaul.

The reason that people should not and will no "pony up" and pay the high Real Estate prices is that lenders have gotten in trouble and are no longer allowed to give people loans who don't truly qualify. So therefore, buyers cannot qualify for these high of loans let alone actually try to afford them.

I agree with the wheat poster. Grain prices are going up, up and up. I never want to be hungry. I can live without big houses and toys, but I can't live without food. Haven't we been warned to get out of debt and store food? Why are people so silly?

I am in a job that has me driving through neighborhoods daily. I've noticed that low to moderately priced neighborhoods dont have near the numbers of for sale signs as the McCastle neighborhoods. How much of this 4-5% that is in trouble is people who "needed" a McCastle and used a subprime loan to get it? If my, admittedly unscientific, observations are correct, I dont want my tax dollars used to bail out $500k+ homebuyers. They can lose their home and rent or buy something more modest like the responsible homeowners. Has anyone seen anything that says which end of the housing scale has the bulk of the problem?

You are 100% correct. Anyone who disagrees with you must be a Realtor or Real clueless to what is going on. Utah appreciated 40% over the last 3 years for no reason except for greedy Realtors, Appraisors, Lenders, and Investors. I have owned 3 houses in Utah, and moved out of state during the boom. I came back and have been renting for the last 15 months waiting for this to happen, and here it goes. I was hoping for 25% declines, but now with the lending crisis, it will be at least 40%. To all the clueless poeple out there, if it can go up 40% in 3 years, it can go down 40% in 3 years, and it will. Anyone who buys a home or listens to a Realtor or Politician in the next year will upside down in a hurry. Myself and Holding Out will be laughing as we sign out closing papers in a year or two.

I too am holding out. I sold a home about 3 months ago and took a little bit of a loss (moved). I have refused to buy in spite of others around me telling me things aren't bad. If you believe things are good you should walk around any neighborhood built in the last two years. Most homes sit vacant and prices are still untouchable. I make > 100k a year and feel just fine renting until I see stability and have 150k in cash. Smart money right now is saying stay out of the market. Anyone who sold in the last 6 months and thought maybe they conceeded too much are now sitting back laughing at what someone actually paid. Not that it is worth anything, but I see a minimum 25-30% correction from todays prices. I see a return to prices 5 years prior if not lower. Typically, the downturn is felt greater than the upturn. Good luck to those sitting on your over inflated listing.