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Professor at USU says U.S. society may collapse

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Colleen | 6:24 a.m. May 25, 2009
Read the Book of Mormon! It is all explained in there.He is correct, of course,and we have been warned. Humanists will say man can fix this scenario and save the planet.Christ knows that He will need to come back as it is His creation. Meanwhile, we could stop and read the direction!!
LaserDoc | 6:43 a.m. May 25, 2009
Seems like he is trying to avoid the big pink elephant in the room by giving a PC answer - nuclear energy. Ironically, both solar and wind power trace nuclear energy as their source.

People's answer to the collapse of the Roman Empire always seems to say much more about their own biases than the actual facts. Thus, you had French scholars in the twentieth century blaming the fall on "Germanic tribes," and contemporary historians blaming it on "environmental degradation." Both simply reveal the biases of the historians.
Scott | 6:50 a.m. May 25, 2009
Nothing new here, call it the Nancy Pelosi blueprint.
Comments continue below
green | 6:55 a.m. May 25, 2009
In the end, Joseph Tainter sounds like a disciple of Al Gore, the man who would stand to be radical enviromentalists first billion-aire. And we trust the anointed Al Gore, because?
Our society will succeed or fail based on its moral/ethical direction. Not based on its ability to provide. We do have the ability to feed nations, we just don't have the ability to redistribute wealth like the always charitable left would have us believe.
@Laser Doc | 7:05 a.m. May 25, 2009
I love how you note that solar and wind trace their source to nuclear power -- but that source is 93 million miles away and doesn't pose the threat that having it in our backyards provides!

Give it up! Nuclear power will never make a come back -- from its cost to build to its ongoing cost for storing/guarding waste (yes, we're still paying for the nuclear waste created by our grandparents!) to its dwindling uranium reserves to its excessive water needs -- nuclear power is a non-starter!
Right On! | 8:08 a.m. May 25, 2009
"Green" hit the nail on the head. The USU guy is a PC Gore clone. Societies moral/ethical underpinings will sink or save them, period.
sl | 8:16 a.m. May 25, 2009
Tainter said. "Possibilities range from little effect to a mild recession to a major depression to a collapse."

Wow, now there is some penetrating insight. Talk about hedging your bets.
Anonymous | 8:21 a.m. May 25, 2009
It sounds like he is explaining what happened under Mr. George W. Bush. Larger, more complex government. Not solving any problems. Just letting things get out of hand and throwing more money at any problem or perceived problem.
Cats | 8:27 a.m. May 25, 2009
I must say I am impressed with the insight expressed in some of these blogs.

Our civilization is on the verge of collapse because we have turned away from GOD. That is all we really need to know. And yes, the Book of Mormon is an excellent source for understanding what happens to civilizations when they forget to live moral and correct principles.

Our only hope of staving off disaster is that we again turn to GOD. That's it PLAIN AND SIMPLE.
Anonymous | 8:30 a.m. May 25, 2009
and not a word about moral decay...
JMT | 8:49 a.m. May 25, 2009
Thus says Malthus.

An 18th century philosopher/economist who predicted the complete collapse of western society. Of course he was wrong. He made bold predictions such as by the early 1800's man's growth would completely outstrip all food and energy sources, etc. We would then see massive food riots, famine, pestilence, etc.

In the end we are 200+ years past any of his predictions.

I do agree that the cost of maintaining an empire is wholly unsuited for a free people. And that in order to maintain we must continually expand. Sadly, we have chosen to do so through force. Instea we should expand our trading partners through negotiation and mutual benefit.

The most recent example of empire collapse is the Soviet Union. Before that it was the Ottoman and the English empires. You could even argue that the Japanese and Germans had one that didn't get so far off the ground.

America should stop being an empire and return to our roots as a free people. And I'm Republican for all of those inclined to defend George Bush through implied attack.
Mark | 8:52 a.m. May 25, 2009
Actually, this isn't an argument based on environmental degradation, it's based on the economic principle of diminishing returns, and it makes a lot of sense. The explosive growth of America over the last 100 years was based on innovation and the availability of cheap energy. We need a new, less expensive source of energy to continue to drive that economic engine. The oil resources in the world will run out in less than 50 years. The question is what we replace oil with.
Bingo | 9:08 a.m. May 25, 2009
Become an independet. Don't let the Democrtas co-op sanity for their ideaological mecca. No cap and trade. No energy tax. None of that hocus pocus. For crying out loud. Take back the economy from the liberal wealth destroyers. Vote Matheson out of office today.

No Dems. No Repubs. Just Americans independent of the goofiness. Get our economic house in order. If you don't have it, you shouldn't be spending it.
Green Energy = Next Bubble | 9:09 a.m. May 25, 2009
Isn't renewable energy the next big bubble? After that pops, what next? I think he's right that renewable energy will stall the collapse of the U.S. for a time, but it won't work forever. Don't you people read the scriptures?
Chuck | 9:42 a.m. May 25, 2009
The only way to grow is by dividing. Living cells cannot just keep growing without dividing. Neither can human organizations. Rome didn't understand this principle of government and fell apart in order to divide. Wouldn't it be better to keep our country together by dividing local governments that have gotten too big by growth?

California is struggling in part because it is too big and should be divided. The best thing that could have happen to Jordan School District was to divide. As our local governments divide, we can be preserved. That happened as we grew geographically with more states.

Now that isn't happening, and so people aren't growing. Pushing the governance closer to the people by dividing as we grow builds people. THAT is what will preserve us.

We cannot survive as a nation unless we divide as we grow.
OR ... | 9:59 a.m. May 25, 2009
...we could just drill and explore here in the U.S. While we are at it, some 'green' genius could come up with the next great form of energy. The problem is only this dire because of stupid 'unsustainable' government regulation and programs. Anyone who thinks that the same people who managed the Hurricane Katrina response (the government) will lead us out of our current situation is crazy.
Matt Connelly | 10:49 a.m. May 25, 2009
This is a fascinating subject...and one that many of us are tempted to skim over out of suspicion, doubt, or, more likely, fear. Yet Professor Tainter is only stating the facts here, and his argument is based on what's happened to other major civilizations throughout history. Will the United States follow the collapse of other major civilizations like the Roman Empire?
Mark | 11:04 a.m. May 25, 2009
Of course there will be a colapse. How can there not be when there is such a great economic despairity between the haves and have nots. Every empire has colapsed when the devide has become so wide: Rome, France, Russia, Mayan, Spain, Egypt, etc. etc... I welcome the change; you should too, or course unless you are one of the very affuent.
Presided over by Obama... | 11:06 a.m. May 25, 2009
engineered by Polosi. Destroy our economics, destroy our country. Green has nothing or little to do with it. It is moral decay. The collapse of our modern Babyonic governments will be Biblical in it's nature. The wise will retreat to Zion, the wicked will continue to do wickedly. (Daniel ch 12)
Only those with spiritual direction will understand how to deal with this calamity. (lst Corinthians ch.2) Tainter is right on this point. We are presently is such a bad state of economic collapse that we can no longer wield influence in the world.
@chuck | 11:21 a.m. May 25, 2009
one of the more interesting comments I've seen.
The Book of Mormon | 11:49 a.m. May 25, 2009
The blueprint for the future? Who'da thunk it?
Religion vs Realism | 11:53 a.m. May 25, 2009
Keep telling people to read the Book OF Mormon or the Bible, (a great example of how to control the masses) it's all the same, fear "His" wrath, doom and gloom if you don't do as I have written- we're all sinners unless we do as "He" says.
It's because of all the religious fanatic's in the world that we have so many wars (profound) I guess if you count thinning the masses a good thing (to keep our standard of living) killing our neighboring countries to fuel (pun intended) our greedy hedonistic lifestyle's then war is necessary for our survival- (the reason we went to Iraq) believe otherwise? Go back to reading your scriptures and prepare for the "rapture"- keep allowing torture, turn your back on the suffering starving people in the world (another argument to thin the masses) and build up your food supply. What's scary is that so many people in the world subscribe to this philosophy that it will be a self fulfilling prophecy.
From an Atheist -don't worry I'm not after your soul- don't try and save mine, thanks!
@11:53 | 12:31 p.m. May 25, 2009
"I'm not after your soul." Yes you are, you were just telling us, in your own way, that your way is the right way. Why don't I just blindly follow you? You make so much more sense than that rascally creater does as we read His words in the holy scriptures. Who is doing the best job at feeding and clothing the needy in this world? Could it be those darn Christian folk? I think so.
Junior | 12:36 p.m. May 25, 2009
If you have read about the coming..(YES!)Islamic societie(s) world wide...then in about 50 years we will be Islamic here in the USA. All other problems will be minor.
CONVERT OR DIE!
Jim Morrison | 12:44 p.m. May 25, 2009
Was pretty close to right when he said,
"When I was back there in seminary school
There was a person there
Who put forth the proposition
That you can petition the Lord with prayer
Petition the Lord with prayer
Petition the Lord with prayer
You cannot petition the Lord with prayer!"

I kind of doubt the answer to society's problems are going to be found by "petitioning God", despite what a number of well-intentioned, but misguided, previous posters have suggested

And why is it that just because you don't agree with this guy you have to associate him with Al Gore? Oh yeah, I guess that makes All Gore correct as well....

And the person who mentioned Nancy Pelosi, you're giving her WAY to much credit.
David Alvord | 12:56 p.m. May 25, 2009
I am having a hard time making the connection here. How does the source of energy we choose lead to collapse? So called green energy is quite complex. I think his study of past civilizations should lead him to agree with those who are in favor of a smaller less complex government. Our choice of fuel is less important than our choice in form of government. Of course, the character of our citizens is also very crucial to the success of a country. The book of Mormon is right.
Mike | 1:46 p.m. May 25, 2009
Everybody seems to be experts on this subject.
@@11:53 "creater" (sic) | 2:06 p.m. May 25, 2009
It's people feeding the world- religious or not- I donate my time and money to the starving- and I KNOW many other non Christians do too. I'm willing to bet there are a lot more people doing it because it's the right thing to do- not just because they want to earn more points to go to "heaven" (as a "good Christian" actually told me as the reason why she donates 10%) I will stop telling my opinion when people stop telling me I'm wrong (as you too- stated)
Many posters on this thread think if you're not a believer in their religion nonbelievers will suffer eternal damnation, that's the problem -and exactly why there are wars- and wars of words, that it's because I'm not a believer that I am wrong.
Just giving my opinion and stating facts about wars in the name of religion - is ironic to me. I don't think "He" wouldn't want acts of war in his name.
If you're a true Christian start acting like one- protest peacefully against suffering/wars. Stop pushing religion into politics. My "creator" is my Mother & Father.
Professor | 2:26 p.m. May 25, 2009
You've spent too much time in Cache Valley.
c almond | 2:58 p.m. May 25, 2009
Re: Green (and others who claim a societies success or failure is based on its morality)
What significant event happened shortly before the decline of Rome? They converted to Christianity. Surely their level of 'morality' as you see it rose when this happen. Why then did the country shortly after decline? Do you see any of the leading countries of the world today as being particularly 'moral' (as you define it)? Europe? Japan? And those countries who are most religious are those who have the worst economies. Clearly a countries morality bears little relation to its fall or decline.
tilden kelly | 3:21 p.m. May 25, 2009
At least Professor Tainter is trying to start a debate.
In my view we also have a radical transformation being imposed on the U.S.
It is being done tru a anti Caucasion genocidal immigration policy.
The obvious goal is to get rid of the founding Nation.We are an anomaly in that we were founded on the usual underpinnings of a Nation State .We had a common ethnic/racial,religous,cultural,and language base imposed on an empthy Continent.The set of values and beliefs was imbedded in this structure.
The ongoing invasion,conquest,and transformation intends to destroy the Caucasian Republic and the Caucasian Nation which founded it.
We have the steps of conquest being enacted .Delegitimation,Demographic destruction,moral legit.for the invaders,and the sanction and support of our system for the conquest and destruction.
It has to be done by a process that halts majority power from functioning.
Deracination and destruction of memory for the founding state is a must.
Conquest by David Day.Translation Nation by Hector Tobar.The Culture of Critique by Kevin MacDonald.The Jewish Century by Yuri Slezkine.PHD.Dis.stephen t wagner- Bettt Koed
Decentralization beats | 3:22 p.m. May 25, 2009
centralization in the long run.
Religion vs. realism revisited | 3:30 p.m. May 25, 2009
At times people might blame religion for conflict and war. This is completely false, however. Truly religious people tend to be peacemakers. This is true regardless of the religion.

Those that promote war are simply selfish, greedy, power-hungry and use religion as a tool to get what they want.

Don't blame religion for world conflict. Religion is the answer. Faith in God and following His counsel is the answer for peace.

I agree that the Book of Mormon describes quite clearly how societies fail and collapse.
Terry | 3:50 p.m. May 25, 2009
Am I the only one that thinks this article is a little scary?
Anonymous | 4:05 p.m. May 25, 2009
U.S. Society May Collapse" -- what exactly does this even mean?

When a house collapses, the walls fall apart and the roof comes down.

What would a "collapsed" United States society look like? Does that mean the President would die? Or Congress would have a vote and just decide to disband altogether - no more Congress? Would Supreme Court Justices just refuse to read anymore cases and refuse to issue judgements? Would Wall Street just shut down completely? Would all public schools just close?

It makes no sense to predict collapse (which, by the way, is NOT what this professor is doing) unless you know what it means to say "collapse".

Reality: People will continue to live. To do so, they will need food, clothing, housing. People have shown they will work together to provide for these necessities. Those social organizations that already exist will continue to provide these needs.

Too many of you people are such extremists, looking for whatever agrees with your fanatic religious ideas. You are all a bunch of idiots.
give me a break | 4:14 p.m. May 25, 2009
I just love these end of the world/civilizations as we know it posts.

I am reminded of the y2k end of the world as we knew it.

Remember-
The computers are going to shut down because time will not be recognized in the 0000 format.

Prophesies of men!

Our cars would not start-
Our money would disappear-
Planes would fall from the sky-

dogs and cats sleeping together-

Mass Hysteria-
everyone would starve and sleep in caves.

If the lord tells the prophet its going to happen and the prophet tells us,
then I will get excited.

Until then I plan to help a child change/better his/her life and I hope to visit Salt Lake City.
@ Religion | 5:10 p.m. May 25, 2009
Hitler, Mao, and Stalin, the most famous athiests in history, killed more humans than all Christians combined. If our world is this bad even with the presence of religion, I can't imagine what it would be like with the absence of religion.
Anonymous | 5:33 p.m. May 25, 2009
Neither Hitler nor Mao nor Stalin were atheists, and their murderous political movements were ALL motivated and justified by religions and Churches. If you don't know that, then you are so ignorant of history you must have been educated at BYU.
VOR | 7:03 p.m. May 25, 2009
10,000 years? Ha, the earth is only 6,000 some odd years old everyone knows that! 'sides God will protect us, I heard it in a song "God Bless America" God loves us, so we're saved! Wooowhoo!

btw: Anyone who STILL believes that Hitler was an Atheist needs to read his book Mein Kampf. Hitler was a Catholic and TBM Christian. No he didn't attend mass on a weekly basis after gaining power, but the dude was indeed religious man. I love how religions love to pawn off their crazies throughout history on the "Atheists".
I've heard this before... | 10:02 p.m. May 25, 2009
...on NPR (KUER?). What he's saying is that we'd be forced to simplify. Our systems would collapse. Of course there would still be people and we'd still work to cover our basic needs, but just like Europe's economy localized and fragmented with the fall of Rome, everything would be more fragmented and localized. (No more eating Chilean grapes in mid-winter, Australian lamb at Thanksgiving, etc.) We would spend all our time just eeking out our living, not hyper-specializing as we have now so that all our clothes come from SE Asia while we can't be bothered with anything but elitist "high culture." Only it seems we have globalized to the point that it would not be a localized fallback/simplification as with the Romans or the Maya where culture and civilization survived elsewhere (e.g. among the Arabs in the case of Rome), but the whole world could fallback to a more fragmented, localized, simplified (more strenuous) way of life. Yeah, it's a bit scary...
Lets begin to prepare | 1:32 a.m. May 26, 2009
The only reason the Unites States has been able so far to be as irresponsible financially as it has is because the whole world accepts the dollar as an international currency.

The oil producing countries accept our dollar in payment for oil. In the past as we have printed enough dollars to that would other wise cause great inflation, other countries have held our dollars and bought our bonds which negates the effects of our irresponsibility.

This may not continue much longer. There is some serious talk now about demoting our currency.

A good first step is to become as energy independent as we can. Bring on the windmills. At the same time keep the coal plants until we can bring on nuclear to replace them. Make cars that run on electricity as much as possible not foreign oil.

If we don't take steps now, we may be in for a shock later, a painful shock.
@tilden kelly | 8:09 a.m. May 26, 2009
This post is full of a lot of crackpot comments from both the religious posters and the apparently non-religious posters, but yours is hands down the most preposterous. In all of your genocidal fear-mongering did you ever mention that this caucasian empire was both culturally, nationally, and ideologically heterogeneous and was imposed on the backs of one of the most impactful genocides ever conducted in human history. That fact that their are people like you walking around give me chills up my spine.
blake | 9:42 a.m. May 26, 2009
I liked this article. I agree that renewable energy is at least one of the keys to overcoming the tremendous problems that lie ahead.

There are numerous technolgies that could save us (cold fusion, magnet motors, etc) but they all would be the undoeing of the power barons who control the energy sources and the money. So, In my opinion this is a freedom issue. We must fight for our freedom and work on free energy from the grass roots. Big busines and big government will never give it to us, they are suppressing it!
2nd coming | 4:35 p.m. May 26, 2009
The 2nd comming will save us all who believe and prepare.
it will come very soon to.
Sounds Plausible. | 8:28 a.m. May 27, 2009
The professor's models make sense. Clearly no society can endure infinite complexity. I'm curious as to what factors add to complexity, and which factors simplify it. I would have liked to have seen more details, not just about energy consumption, but about social structures, and perhaps something about how citizens of a society spend their time and resources on a personal trending sort of level.
Common Sense | 8:37 a.m. May 27, 2009
Of course we are collapsing. We elect our leaders based on commercials and popularity. We have elected ex-wrestlers, movie stars and body builders. We don't take the time and effort to put people in office that may actually be qualified. We are not collapsing, because we are running out of energy. We are collapsing because we have energy all tied up in red tape and litigation. Renewable as well as traditional, oil and coal. We are collapsing because we elect people who promise change without making them explain what that change in going to be. We are all caught up in the fact that Obama is our 1st Black President, not in his leadership abilities. We also elect someone just based on which party they claim to represent. If we continue to just have our two choices, we will collapse sooner. We are collapsing because we do not have the morals and values that we need, and we are not electing our leaders based on those morals and values. We are not expecting and requiring our leaders to uphold our values.
Anonymous | 9:45 a.m. May 27, 2009
The professor is wrong. Complexity is not inherently evil and doomed to collapse. Complexity in societies has been around from the beginning. All complexity is is an opportunity for innovation. Brilliant people are produced by complex societies, and these brilliant people see the simplicity beyond the complexity and bring us innovations that simplify the complexity without "collapse" and destruction. Our society is far advanced beyond agrarian societies because of science and our mastery of the powers of nature, NOT because of mere complexity. The only real threat to our society and way of life are the religious extremists and eschatologically naive fanatics who would misuse our technologies to destroy those who don't believe the same myths they believe!

Religion will bring about the destruction of civilization, NOT complexity.
Obama Republican | 10:50 a.m. May 27, 2009
Right or Wrong, the professor has a point, we use to much and eventually new technology will not bail us out! Malthus was not wrong in theory just in timeline. We are consuming our way to destruction!
Naruto | 11:44 a.m. May 27, 2009
The only way the USA will collapse is if the people of this country keep dividing themselves from others.
We label everyone:
Liberal and Necocon
Right wing-Left Wing
Gay and Straight
Religious and Athiest
The list goes on and on.
It seems that this "indivisible" country is more divided than ever.
Yet there is still hope, there is plenty of good going on in this country and people fail to see it.
When was the last time you went out of your way to help someone, regardless of Race, Religion, or Status?

TO: 2nd Coming | 11:46 a.m. May 27, 2009
"The 2nd comming will save us all who believe and prepare.It will come very soon too."



People have been saying that for a very long, long time. Things have been way worse in the world than they are today. We live in relatively peace and prosperity right now.

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