Buckle up your seat belts.
We're in for a bumpy ride.
Depression II is here.
And people are getting angrierand frightened by the day.

Maybe if we voted the "R" word a little less, too.

The interesting thing about recession is that, from an economic standpoint, a recession is usually characterized by first and foremost a decrease in consumer spending on luxury items.

Look at the sales of such items (big screen tvs, wii and other game systems, vacations, etc.). There has barely been a blip on these items so far.

I think with the housing market having issues this will lead to a slow-down of the economy, but the economic indicators of a full-fledged recession are just not there.....yet.

By the way, panic causes people to do all kinds of weird things, whether the threat is real or imagined, so I agree with the concerns about trying to tone down alarmist rhetoric about looming recessions and depressions. Consumer confidence is another big indicator, and driver, of the economy.

We need to look at the reality of a slow-down leading to a recession and try to put measures in place to head it off, but running around screaming "the sky is falling" will result in self-fulfilling prophecy.

The definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP. It hasn't happened yet, except in the fertile minds of Bush haters.

It is happening, except in the minds of bush lovers.

In a weird, sick way, the recession has me excited. Housing costs are plummeting...and I'll be looking for a home in a couple of months, and moving out of our apartment. Housing may be affordable again.
One thing I can thank Bush for, I guess.

Instead of recession, it should be called a correction. The Fed has been inflating the money supply at an unbelieveable rate. That can continue for only so long before it affects price inflation and debasement of the dollar, which is what we're seeing now. When that happens, it has to self-correct. The longer the Fed and politicians put off the inevitable correction, the more serious the consequences will be.

People are afraid that our recession is bad and that we are in trouble. Has anyone seen interest rates on any loan go up past 10-12%? The economy across the nation may be in some trouble but interest rates are still very good compared to what they could be. We still have a huge inventory of homes on the market but we have also been through one of the worst winters in a few years. People are out looking again for homes. If you are absolutely convinced that our market is horrible because of the what the media says, keep the chaos going on in your head to yourself because you're basically spreading more unfounded chaos. I'm a realtor and I'm getting calls daily on my inventory and I'm not really worried.

Uneducated opinions -

To a realtor, it is ALWAYS the perfect time to buy property.
Trouble is, money is getting scarce and those who can afford it are investing in the Deer Valley's or the Chalets in Switzerland or Lake Como.
But if you'd like, make me an offer I simple can't refuse - I'll listen to the sales pitch.

A few days agon, Warren Buffett called our situation a recession.

Have you ever asked yourself why some people are so anxious for the recession to be here? It's not necessarily a good thing. Politics, and the need to tar and feather the current administration seems to be the motivating factor.

And Warren Buffet is an investor (who votes Democrat), not an economist.

Economies need recessions the same way healthy forests need fires. When economies are booming, lending standards fall, and unsound investments get made. It takes a recession to clear out the malinvestment deadwood, so the economy can go forward on a more sustainable basis.

The Greenspan Federal Reserve tried to abolish the business cycle by slamming the interest-rate throttle around wildly every time there was a hint of recession. As a result, recessions over the last twenty years were less frequent and less intense than they were historically -- but the dollar's value has become less stable.

It is becoming clear that the price for all these attempts at fine-tuning and delaying the necessary is coming due. We've experienced a series of malinvestment-driven economic bubbles, where asset prices repeatedly rose well above the discounted value of their ability to generate revenue. The last in the series of these bubbles -- the one in real estate -- is in the process of imploding with catastrophic effects on the insanely-leveraged global financial system. There is truly nothing that can be (or should be) done to prevent this. We're going to have to let this one burn.

Caused by (1) Bush's hyper deficit over the "war on terror" and (2) Bush's lack of regulation of Wall Street, which has been selling huge blocks of no-good mortgages on the market, thus threatening to bring down the whole financial world. (Of course, there's also the natural downturn in the business cycle...but that doesn't usually produce the kind of stagflation we're suddenly facing). It's mostly Bush... what a disaster.

Timj: I hope you buy a house, in the ebb and flow of an economy, some can take advantage of another's need to unload an asset. This is not immoral. This is the exchange of a market. The housing market needed a correction. However, I believe that the easy credit, orchestrated by the Fed Reserve and FNMA, Freddy Mac, was intentional, to get more into home ownership, after the correction, the home ownership will still be higher than prior to the easing of credit. Beautiful, isn't it.

No MEB,
I don't see anybody anxious for a recession as you put it (and yet another boring democrat-bashing neocon trick).
I see people who are not so willing to stick their heads in the sand being subject to Bush Doctrine and wacky conservative, no-change ideology.

BUSH said we are not in a recession, we are in a slow down...

Warren Buffet said we are in a recession.

who ya gonna believe???

Buffet is enormously respected...Bush is incredibly incompetant.

I don't believe the GDP numbers for the past two quarters have been in decline; they have still shown growth, though much less than what we experienced previously. We may be in a recession, but if so, we would have to see negative economic growth this quarter and next. We are definitely in a correction, at least. That correction may be a good thing it stops us from stripping the equity out of our homes to buy big-screen TVs or take cruises.

*** "I don't see anybody anxious for a recession as you put it (and yet another boring democrat-bashing neocon trick)." ***

I am. During boomtimes bad policy and stupidity breeds like rabbits. Open borders, profligate spending, optional wars, ever more entitlement programs, and bridges to nowhere are the sorts of bad ideas that can only be killed by staring reality in the face, like the overeater who has his first heart attack or the smoker facing lung cancer or the unsafe driver who has a near miss on the road.

What all of us should face is that raw partisanship is just plain stupid.

Some of our bad policies, like the home mortgage crisis and runaway entitlement spending, are the result of Democrats.

Some, like the Iraq War and the deficit generating tax cuts, and the result of Republicans.

Some, like open borders and rising inflation and the declining dollar, are thanks to both.

Open up your eyes to the reality we face and drop your mindless tribal perspective. Both parties gave us this mess, and both parties need to be purged.

Warren Buffet has a very simple but effective investment strategy; anything he personally used and bought consistently (like toilet paper, razor blades, soap, etc.) he invested in. He also avoided the dot.com bubble as did many seasoned investors, viola!! he is a rich investor, not an economist.

Recession, Recession, Recession, OK I said it.

What's wrong saying "Recession"? What's wrong with having a recession? All healthy economies have them. America has one about every decade (yes, even during the Clinton years so don't blame it on Republicans).

The word people/economists hate to say is, "Depression". They are bad, but we're not there yet.

Note: If we do get into a full blown "Depression", being afraid to say the word won't help much.

When one of our economic geniuses on this blog can explain how the economy can possibly turn around
when we're in debt to China for zillions, value of the dollar is plummeting daily, nothing is manufactured in the U.S. anymore, good jobs are being outsourced, and the graduating class of next year will be even BIGGER than the one before it, then I'll start maxing out my credit cards once again.

To dark times: It is always bad policy to max out your credit cards.

The problem with saying it "There, I said it" is that it is not accurate. You show a lack of education and understanding by declaring a recession when even the top economists in the nation hsven't declared it.

Should we be concerned with a slow down, recession, or depression? Yes, but as pointed out above, it's a necessary part of the cycle.

Anonymous 12:02 has the best post yet. This cannot be laid at the feet of one party only. Both have enjoyed spending other people's money and putting us in the hole that we find ourselves. I'd like to jump on board the 'clean house' bus, but the larger problem is that there is too much money to be made in politics.

*** "America has one about every decade (yes, even during the Clinton years so don't blame it on Republicans)." ***

Sorry, but these are Bush haters. They don't understand, and can't be bothered to learn, that the last recession started on Clinton's, not Bush's, watch. The market started tumbling in August 2000 - 5 months before Clinton left office. It got worse only because of 9/11, for which both Clinton and Bush can share the "credit."

*** "Warren Buffet said we are in a recession: who ya gonna believe???" ***

Why do folks always trust rich people? Would you trust them if they said "slashing taxes on ME would be really good for YOU."

Buffet's a smart guy, but rich people don't get rich by being indifferent to money. And besides, Buffet's a bargain hunter. How do you know he didn't say it to scare people out of the market so he can snap up some bargains?

Lionheart -
What's so wrong with maxing out every single credit card a person has?
This administration has been doing it for the last 8 years. Aren't they supposed to be setting the conservative example?

*** "What's so wrong with maxing out every single credit card a person has? This administration has been doing it for the last 8 years. Aren't they supposed to be setting the conservative example?" ***

If Hillarycare had happened this country's credit cards would've been maxed out before Bush got hold of them. Bush indeed has been flagrantly irresponsible with taxpayer money, but don't take that to mean the Democrats are better. Remember, budget bills are primarily the domain of Congress, and Congress was controlled by Republicans for 6 of Bill's 8 years (including the years the budget was balanced).

Economy in the toilet.
Wars that Republicans say will go on for a century.
No-bid defense and re-building contracts awarded to the corporations formally headed by the Vice President of the U.S. and his wife.
How incredibly stupid are the conservatives who by merely waving a flag at them, merrily go along with The Bush Doctrine even when it's bankrupting the country.

All I have to say is that those that believe Obama is going to "Right the Ship" with the ecomony is in for a big surprized.

Carter Administration - Great economics, 19 percent interest, double digits inflation,

Clinton - One of the biggest Recession in recent memory about 150 days after he left office, you can try to blame Bush, but the fact is, it was Clinton economics policies that caused it.

Remove one R word (republican) and we have a much better chance of the other R word (recession) going away.

No guarantee with the old guard, mind you (hillary), but one R usually leads to the other R.

(think another R word... Reaganomics)

*** "Clinton - One of the biggest Recession in recent memory about 150 days after he left office, you can try to blame Bush, but the fact is, it was Clinton economics policies that caused it." ***

It wasn't Republican or Democratic economic policies that caused it - it was a natural part of the economic cycle. While I don't know or care when the recession happened, one of the precipitating events was the stock market collapse, began in August 2000, 5 months before Bush was elected.

*** "Remove one R word (republican) and we have a much better chance of the other R word (recession) going away." ***

The last "R word" started on an R's watched (but was caused by events during a D's watch). It went away on an R's watch, too.

In fact, the last 3 recessions have all ended on an R's watch, and were all very mild - the '82 recession, the '92 recession, and the '01 recession.

On the other hand, we stayed in a depression for 8 years after the election of the prototypical D - FDR - back in 1932.

Sounds like you need to check your facts, Dominique.