The path of least resistance is comfortable. Assume untested premises are correct. Ignore uncharted waters. Then you live in one ivory tower or another, plus you get paid very well. The accuracy of your forecasts is largely irrelevant. Problem is, true reality is analog.

Sorry, the only thing that is for sure is global warming. Just look at the mathematics. Oops.

And your idea is?????? Oh, you just wrote to complain about something you dont understand. What will your next letter be about? Rocket science? Brain surgery? Rocket surgery?

How an economist sees the world is colored by his/her political viewpoint. Galbraith and Friedman could look at exactly the same data and come to opposite conclusions about it. What you are asking for can't exist.

@Anonymous: you're comparing economics to brain surgery? That's what economic graduate programs want you to believe, but it's neither that nor rocket science (what's "rocket surgery"??). Your reasoning is exactly why economists get away with absurd theories that have almost no basis in reality.

@Economic Historian: I hope you're wrong. As far as I'm concerned, Galbraith and Friedman weren't that far apart from each other. They were certainly not at opposite ends of the spectrum. Maybe you should tell me where you think Hayek, Mises and Menger are in your hierarchy.

Here's my projection. Based on "rational expectations" this recession has no end in sight. Capital began leaving the country in 2006. The decade of subprime loans led to an immense real estate bubble, prices are not down to an intrinsic value yet. That will happen when at least 50% of the population can afford a reasonable downpayment and qualify for a payment without manipulated underwriting and mortgage documents. The second shoe to drop will be the backlash to the massive increase in M1 and M2 which has nearly tripled, inflation is a foregone conclusion which may help with the massive debt, but it certainly can make our creditor angry. Keynesian policy of massive government spending has been discredited and proven counterproductive, still our adminstration and congress pursue this course. Economic situations such as our current one have led to wars in the past. Stay tuned.

@Economics major: you've given me hope that not all economics programs are living in another world. You've nailed it.

Welcome to the world of economists,

where each believes their OPINION is right, and everyone else's is wrong.

It is complete and wholly a subjective study based on how you THINK people may act.

Anonymous expresses how many people feel about economics. However, the proof is in what happens next. Someone is going to be right, and others are going to be wrong. Place your bets!