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Home sales plunging in Utah
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The Wasatch Front was one of the last to the housing bubble party and will be one of the last to the collapse, but it is coming.
The notoriously conservative banks lost their way for a few years. We will be back to "talk to me when you have a 20% down payment" by next year. Many areas of the country are already there. If you can't save a 20% down payment you really don't have the discipline or financial ability to own a home.
Now they're blaming it on financing when it was the "creative financing" that got people into the subprime market and adjustable rate mortgages. Going back to a more traditional financing in order to stabilize the economy is a good thing but still there is a limit to what people can afford to buy. Obviously the subprime didn't give them the edge they were hoping to find. Now they face foreclosures. People need to buy within their means, but where are those homes they could actually afford?
Make no mistake... It will be painful for those who bought high, and for those who invested big with thoughts of huge returns, but in a year or two, prices will be back in line with values and incomes and our economy will better off.
Everyone is in the same boat. Market forces are far beyond the control of any group or individuals.
For the market as it is today, not how it was, or how you wish it to be: houses properly priced are selling. If they are not selling, they are not properly priced.
Welcome to economic reality.
Most of the housing craze of recent years was home buyers imagining they were investing in magic money machines. They bought the biggest things they could get a note for because they were told it would mean more profits.
Utah was slow coming into the strong run up and is slow going into the correction as well, but mark my words, we're in for a rocky ride that could last a decade.
Which crystal ball are you looking at? A bottom is forming? Sure it is. How is a new couple supposed to afford a home with prices where they are? Where are all those new move ins coming from? CA? They are in worse situation now. Logic dictates that without people to afford those high-priced houses (and wages are not increasing that much), the likelihood of continuing upward movement on prices is suspect.
Now's the time to buy? With what? I bought earlier. Am I supposed to have sold my home already so I can buy another one? Those transaction costs eat up a ton of "equity." Where am I supposed to get the money to buy now?
You're like the mutual fund managers screaming out "Now is the time to buy!" What an amazingly good crystal ball they have.
Eventually, realtors will be copmletely replaced by online services. The profession will be completely phased out in 12 years.
24% of the loans taking out in 2005-06 were subprime in Utah. It's going to get worse and those who allowed it to happen are going to suffer financially. Except the realtors, brokers and builders who capitalized off the market. Greed rules in Utah!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'm currently seeing a steady decline in list prices. Many show up in the MLS as relatively new listing (less than 60 days) when in fact the same properties are being relisted at lower prices and have actually been on the market for a nearly a year and some even longer. On the other hand sale prices are indeed holding steady but only in homes that are accurately priced. There are excessive numbers of homes that are not price accurately and those are the ones that are not selling.
Glad I'm not having to sell my home right now. Good luck to all of you who are; and take the advice someone gave above, buy only what you can afford! Don't be house-poor. Live within your means.
Right now I am just renting. I have seen some of the houses in Utah that are for sale. A lot of them are outdated, need a lot work or really overpriced.
Plus who wants to buy a house with a swamp cooler when there is a things called air conditioning.
The reality is that the Utah housing market has been very very low for many years. Right now we are just catching up to where the rest of the nation was before the housing boom started. Utah is a destination for LDS members, retirees and people looking to move closer to their family. There is a lot of demand to live in Utah. That's the reason that wages are not as high as other places. People are willing to sacrifice to live here.
Once retires from California bought Utah homes. They visit Utah in June when the weather is wonderful and they have never spent a long March in Utah. People are so friendly when they see money.
Californians are holding off on retiring because they can't cash their homes in.
My question has been: when the boomers die off, who will buy their retirement homes in communities without a strong economic base?
What's the labor market in Kanab going to be in thirty years?
Utah could start marketing homes in China or Moscow.
The best indicators of how the market is doing ideally include how much the same home sold for now vs. last time it sold, how much homes are selling for per square foot, what amenities are included, and what concessions were offered.
All of the above items can drastically change how reality is viewed.
If a car dealer sells more Ferraris and less Camry's, the average sales prices of all cars sold will increase, even if comparatively speaking all the cars sold for a lower price.
If the median home sold last quarter was several square fee bigger and/or had more amenities, and/or was newer, and/or had more seller concessions, the median home price could easily have gone up when the price vs. value has decreased dramatically.
Is that what has happened in Utah?
The fact that the number of listings has increased to record levels and the number of sales has dropped is a good indication that it has.
In addition, based on the number of sales reported for the 1st quarter of 2008 vs current listings, Utah County has over a two year supply of homes on the market.
Yikes!
I suppose you are involved in realty because you don't seem to be in touch with reality.
Interesting article, but largely just filler words.
And where did those numbers really come from???
Davis County sales down only 26.56% and prices up by 0.65%?
The MLS is the only practical source of real estate sales information. Other numbers exist, but wouldn�t greatly change those on the MLS.
According to WFRMLS Davis County single family residence (SFR) sales 1st Quarter 2008 totaled 1,043.
SFR sales 1st Quarter 2007 totaled 609.
That�s a sales reduction of 42%. Not 26%
The corresponding price change looks like an increase of 4.3% not 0.65%.
Statewide SFR sales during 1st Quarter 2008 totaled 8,790.
Statewide SFR sales during 1st Quarter 2007 totaled 5,371.
That�s a sales reduction of 39%.
The corresponding price change represents a reduction of 2.2%
And, the touted efforts of Nicholl Coldwell in helping Paul Johansen �sell his house in only 45 days� appear to consist primarily of their convincing him to reduce his price by 9.0%; not that they had a marvelous marketing plan.
Pricing of homes is in the hands of Sellers and Buyers.
When either gets greedy, things get out of balance.
When they get realistic, sales numbers adjust correspondingly.
I've never seen more torturing of the statistics than when I worked in the property business (I got sick of all the deception and refused to participate)I'm also a guy who got an "A" in my college statistics class. My teacher was great. I learned to be very skeptical of all the spinning done with statistics.
Everywhere I go, there are commercial for rent ("available") signs. I have been watching the MLS for two years and it has been in a steady growth trend. It used to have about 9,000 houses for sale. Now almost 22,000. The empty lots are through the roof.
Think for yourself. How can you trust someone who profits when you buy, whether it's a good move for you or not.
Hey all! Our housing prices need to catch up to the rest of the country! Darn it! We are good enough! Oh wait, our wages are much lower than the rest of the country? Don't worry! Just buy a house! Buy three at that price! Everything will be all right!
Unless you understand ECONOMIC REALITY. Which you obviously don't. Do some reading, then come back to the board. Check out some Case-Shiller analysis. Look at the trends described in the OFHEO statistics. I ain't a realtor. I ain't a house hater. (I have two.) What I despise are people who hype up and overinflate a market so that fairly common people now can't afford to buy what used to be a fairly common purchase. Don't be fooled. House prices won't go up for years.
Ahhh, to dream...
Or were you talking about LIQUIDIFICATION where coal is changed to an oily liquid?
Prices will remain artificially high as long as "custom" home builders continue to build mcmansions on vacant lots in aging neighborhoods.
If you live in it, it is not an investment.
I saw this drop a year ahead of it happening because I have seen four bubble pop. This was the largest bubble.
I saw the dot com crash and moved out of stocks.
I believe this market will crash allot more. I really see this crash as a element in a larger picture. If homes were stock, I would be selling short.
My point too was much of Utah's home prices where driven by other markets outside Utah. If we sneeze in California, Utah will catch a cold.
You would be a fool to purchase a home today. Start looking in eighteen months.
My fiance and I only make combines about 45, and we found an respectable townhouse in a pretty good neighborhood for $120 in North Orem. I looked for 3 months, and it really was one of a kind.
Good luck! I would suggest finding a good place to rent, pay about 600 a month for a year or so and watch the market.
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