Pundits make electoral college predictions for Obama, Romney
Associated Press
CNN's Alex Castellanos revealed his prediction in a tweet, saying, "Time to take a stand. The envelope pl… I'm going against the odds. Romey wins w/ around 300. @CNNOpinion. The silent majorty roars."
He later elaborated on that tweet in a column, predicting a Romney win, and giving a number of reasons why.
"My experience is that polarizing incumbents running against acceptable challengers can count on getting just about exactly what they are getting in the last poll, heading into the election — and no more," Castellanos wrote. "The electoral ceiling over Obama's head is hard. In my view, it is a couple of points too low for him to win re-election."
Even with Obama's four-year head start, endless resources and get-out-the-vote operation, "the thrill of his historic political accomplishment is gone," and "without passion to fuel the machine, a turnout engine is just a collection of bolts," Castellanos wrote.
The "reticent Republican factor" — where voters are hesitant to express their political leanings "because they know the cool kids won't invite them to play," may lead to an unexpected pro-Romney bump on election day, Castellanos predicted.
>> Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waves to reporters after he took questions on his campaign plane en route from Pittsburgh to Boston, Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012. At right is senior adviser Kevin Madden.
He later elaborated on that tweet in a column, predicting a Romney win, and giving a number of reasons why.
"My experience is that polarizing incumbents running against acceptable challengers can count on getting just about exactly what they are getting in the last poll, heading into the election — and no more," Castellanos wrote. "The electoral ceiling over Obama's head is hard. In my view, it is a couple of points too low for him to win re-election."
Even with Obama's four-year head start, endless resources and get-out-the-vote operation, "the thrill of his historic political accomplishment is gone," and "without passion to fuel the machine, a turnout engine is just a collection of bolts," Castellanos wrote.
The "reticent Republican factor" — where voters are hesitant to express their political leanings "because they know the cool kids won't invite them to play," may lead to an unexpected pro-Romney bump on election day, Castellanos predicted.
>> Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waves to reporters after he took questions on his campaign plane en route from Pittsburgh to Boston, Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012. At right is senior adviser Kevin Madden.

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