Pundits make electoral college predictions for Obama, Romney

Published: Tuesday, Nov. 6 2012 4:46 p.m. MST

Nate Silver: 313-225, Obama Next » 1 of 18 « Prev
Associated Press
Nate Silver, who runs The New York Times fivethrirtyeight blog, predicts an Obama victory, 313-225.

"Averaging polls together increases their sample size — making them much more powerful statistically than any one poll taken alone," Silver wrote. But the errors in the polls are sometimes correlated, meaning there are years when most of them miss in the same direction."

If there is an error in Obama's favor, it's possible Romney could win the popular vote, Silver wrote. However, Romney's chances of winning the electoral college are smaller.

"If the national popular vote winds up roughly tied, instead of favoring Mr. Obama by two points or so, then Mr. Romney could claw back to win Florida, Colorado and Virginia, and perhaps Iowa and New Hampshire," Silver said. "But Mr. Obama’s lead in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania is clear enough to withstand some underperformance in the polls, and his margins in the polling averages there have converted into a victory on election night a very high percentage of the time historically."

>> President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama on stage during the final 2012 campaign event in downtown Des Moines, Iowa, Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2012.
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