| Salt Lake City |
 |
 |
| GER |
12 |
16 |
7 |
35 |
 |
| USA |
10 |
13 |
11 |
34 |
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| NOR |
11 |
7 |
6 |
24 |
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| CAN |
6 |
3 |
8 |
17 |
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| RUS |
6 |
6 |
4 |
16 |
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| AUT |
2 |
4 |
10 |
16 |
|
| ITA |
4 |
4 |
4 |
12 |
|
| FRA |
4 |
5 |
2 |
11 |
|
| SUI |
3 |
2 |
6 |
11 |
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| NED |
3 |
5 |
0 |
8 |
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Oly boom is unlikely, economist predicts
By Brice Wallace
Deseret News business writer
The 2002 Olympics are over, but the athletes — not Utah's economy — may be the only ones getting the gold.
Thayne Robson, while believing the Winter Games were beneficial to the state in many ways and "a huge success," nonetheless said Tuesday that their legacy likely will not feature an economic boost.
The executive director of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research and management professor at the University of Utah said Utah can be proud of its Olympics. People made or renewed friendships, enjoyed experiences and storehoused memories, and the state is left with improved facilities such as I-15, TRAX, increased hotel capacity and sports venues.
"But its primary significance is not its economic impact in terms of generating wealth and income," Robson told a gathering of the Rotary Club.
"From my perspective as an economist trying to understand how we generate wealth and income and create jobs and support ourselves and businesses in Utah, what we can clearly conclude about the Olympics is that it was the greatest party ever in Utah. But it is over, our guests have gone home or will leave shortly, and in my view Utah will return to normal, and the new Utah will look much the same as the old Utah."
But Robson conceded that nobody knows what the long-term economic benefits will be, and no one even knows how to measure them.
"We have proven we can host the world in a hospitable and friendly manner. I believe we are better off for having hosted the Olympics," he said.
"Does all of this add up to significant increases in future capital investment, tourism, business relocations to our community, Utah growing faster than other states, our share of the national economy increasing significantly, will we have a larger share of the winter sports market?
"No one knows for sure at this point, but if we are like other communities who have hosted the Winter Games in the past, the answer to this last set of questions will probably be, 'No.' "
To help make his point, he asked if anyone in the audience regularly takes skiing trips to former Olympic host city Calgary or if anyone had recently opened a business there. No one had.
Robson also noted that having the Olympics ramp-up did not shield Utah from the national recession. He predicted that Utah's economic future is bright and will be closely tied to the situation throughout the Rocky Mountain and Western regions — full of states "that will do extraordinarily well," he said.
The first quarter of 2002 will be marked by big Olympic spending in Utah, but that will be offset by businesses that "didn't accomplish much" during the Games. The second and third quarters will be relatively weak, even with a national economic recovery. The state's economy most likely will recover in the fourth quarter of 2002 or the first quarter of 2003, he said.
"What I want to suggest, however, is that the recovery will indeed come, this will be a relatively mild downturn in the Utah economy and we will make our way through this in reasonably good fashion even though we expect little or no growth in the Utah economy in the year 2002," he said.
"I also suspect that whatever happens in Utah the next two years will be blamed on the Olympics, whether or not the Olympics had any role in it or not."
E-MAIL: bwallace@desnews.com
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February 27, 2002
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