High school sports blog

Nov. 6, 2009 | 1 entry | RSS

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Week 12 picks

Andrew Aragon
DeseretNews.com blogger | Nov. 6, 2009 at 10:23 a.m.

Here we go with another week of high school football playoffs. Here are the official standings in our picks competition, with some tough games to figure out today, and surely the next two weeks. The so-called "experts" are still chasing Friday Night Rider, but not by as much as we once were. I won last week so I'll go ahead and pat myself on the back for it. Hold on. Ok, I'm back.

FNR: 34-14
AA: 33-15
JC: 33-15
TP: 30-18

JC: Well, I didn't win last week. But at least I didn't lose any ground in the competition. Andrew and I are tied for second and we're both closing in on Friday Night Rider. FNR is like the hare who stepped off the course to take a nap. What FNR doesn't realize is the tortoises he left behind him have strapped on rocket skates and are cruising past in a blinding flash. This is the time where the pretenders fall away and the contenders return to the top to stay. History will repeat itself and I feel confident I can claim the weekly picks title on this blog once again.

TP: I'm falling faster than the box office ratings for a movie with Keanu Reeves as the headlining actor in these picks. I'm on the precipice of ending my first season much like the Oklahoma City Thunder. The only thing I can do now is fight like a rottweiler that's been backed into a corner and/or get my rally monkey out. Hopefully, I'll be able to find a loophole and close the gap. If that turns out to be impossible, I can follow the advice of one of the greatest characters in cinema - the Joker. If, I have no chance of winning, it's still possible to turn things upside down, or as the Joker would say, "Introduce a little anarchy. Upset the established order, and everything becomes chaos. I'm an agent of chaos."

AA: I'm an agent of getting these picks right so let's get to it.

Friday:
Pleasant Grove at Davis
JC: The Darts are one of those teams who just don't lose home playoff games very often. Davis has a 18-4 mark at home all-time in the postseason. I would favor PG to knock off the higher seed here, except the injury bug is still afflicting the Vikings. Dallas Lloyd could be a game time decision after suffering an injury last week and if he is less than 100 percent, the offense might struggle. Not a good sign when the Darts have a tough defense to begin with and a back like Tanner Hinds that can chew yards and clock. Region 1 will flex a little muscle here. Davis 19, Pleasant Grove 13.

TP: This is a tricky game. I really like Tanner Hinds game; the kid is a bruiser…then again what's not to like about 1,500 yards and 21 touchdowns? It's safe to say those numbers speak for themselves. However, Davis has been somewhat, lackluster in my opinion - as strange as that seems. Why you might ask? Teams that are one-dimensional can't win a championship. If you can't be successful in both running and throwing the football, it's possible to create a counter attack. It's easier to get away with these flaws in the regular season, but come playoff time, such weaknesses are exposed. As far as the Vikings are concerned, without the inability to blow teams out, they're setting themselves up for a disaster. I think with the emergence of Jeff Harris in the backfield recently, PG has improved. If Dallas Lloyd can find Jason Fanaika in the open field, I don't think Davis will be able to stop him. Personally I think Fanaika is one of the top three players in the state. I'm expecting a close game, but I think PG will be able to advance to the turf. Pleasant Grove 28, Davis 24.

AA: I disagree that one-dimensional teams can't win championships, in high school at least. Wait, does that even make sense? What I mean is that one-dimensional teams can win championships in high school. Look back to 2004 when Davis beat Cottonwood 50-42 in the 5A championship game. The Darts weren't exactly throwing the ball all over the field that day. But they aren't going to be able to pound the ball against PG like they did against Cottonwood that day. This game is going to be a lot like the Brighton-PG game where defenses rule and the offense that can make a couple of big plays will win. PG has more talent, but I think the Darts are the better team. A few weeks ago I said Davis might not be who we thought they were. Now, I'm saying they are who we thought they were! I just pounded my desk in the spirit of Dennis Green. Davis 13, PG 10

Lone Peak at Hunter
JC: I told Trevor the Wolverines were my darkhorse pick to make the semifinals -- a place they haven't been since claiming a state title in 2003. But I might have to backtrack on that. The Knights have held seven of their last nine opponents under single digits and are 7-0 in those games. Hunter is averaging 37.5 points per game in its last six. Something has to give here. Hunter will take it down to the wire, but I still like Lone Peak's chances at stealing one on the road. Lone Peak 23, Hunter 20.

TP: Lone Peak quite possibly could be the fastest team in the state. That's saying something. I was extremely impressed with the depth, and athleticism I witnessed when the Knights intercepted six passes last week. Tannon Pedersen is easily one of the best gunslingers in the state. He's able to put tremendous touch on the fade route, while also being able to fire a bullet on a crossing route. The kid is the real deal. However, Jacob Hannemann is the playmaker - both offensively and defensively. He's a force to be reckoned with, and if Lone Peak expects to win this game, he'll have to bump up on run support. Hunter is on a six game win streak, nonetheless let me reel off the teams that fell to the Wolverines during this streak: Cyprus, Granter, Murray (no offense Andrew, Go Sparty!), Cottonwood, Skyline and Weber. I think the entire state witnessed how good Skyline really was last week. Out of the six wins, two could be classified as quality wins. Eventually, La'au Tanuvasa, who has carried the ball 36, 32, and 31 times in the three previous games, is going to run out of gas. This is going to be a very physical game, but the Knights will prevail. Lone Peak 21, Hunter 13.

AA: Wait a second. Wait a second. Why are we bringing the Spartans into this argument? They improved by three wins this season, so let's just leave them out of it. The other thing is Lone Peak won't intercept six passes today, because Hunter might not throw it six times. I like this Hunter team. The book on them in previous years was you could throw it on them, take a little lead and the game was over. The Wolverines are much improved against the pass. Their running game is destroying defenses. I like this Lone Peak team, too, but I'm picking an upset. Hunter 17, Lone Peak 14

Syracuse at Bingham
JC: Classic trap game. I can guarantee nearly everyone outside of Davis County expects the Miners to win convincingly on the way to reaching another 5A title game. But not so fast. The Titans have given up just 42 total points in four road games this season. Bingham didn't look so sharp in letting Jordan back into the game after taking a 34 point lead. But the Miner offense averages 42.3 points per game at home and I think that once Bingham gets going, Syracuse will find it tough to slow the Miners down again. Bingham 28, Syracuse 14.

TP: Syracuse finally got its offense fired up. It's about time too. They were beginning to look a bit frightening. It was great to see the Titans beat one of the great programs in the history of the state. It's always nice to see teams begin building their own resume. My only problem with the Titans is how will they respond when they meet a superior offense. Syracuse has won games the entire year with hardnosed defense. However, some teams are impossible to stop - and Bingham is one of them. The only way to beat the Miners is to outscore them - match them blow for blow. Bingham will score points against anybody - period. The last time Syracuse met a team of this caliber, with this prolific of an offense - was on November 13th, 2008. The result? Alta 42 - Syracuse 14. Look for Ty Hannay to find his bread and butter tight end Chris Copier on a play-action pass across the middle for a quick score in the 1st quarter. Bingham has yet to lose a game in Utah…don't expect that to happen anytime soon. Bingham 35, Syracuse 17.

AA: Time for another idiot game for me. In case you've missed it, when I've seen two teams play and then have the chance to pick the game when they play each other I say I'm an idiot if I can't get it right. Well, unfortunately I've been an idiot in two of the three idiot games I've picked. I'm up to 67 percent idiot. But, I guarantee that won't be the case today. I saw both teams play last week, and I don't see Syracuse holding up against Bingham for four quarters. The Titans will play them tough and keep it close well into the third quarter, but they'll eventually wear down against Bingham's superior size. Bingham 26, Syracuse 10

Bonneville at Dixie
JC: You have to give the Lakers credit. With their anemic offense, they have no business winning games. When it comes to defense, however, few teams can rival Bonneville. The Lakers find a way to make enough stops to stay in every game. If the offense could reach the same level, Bonneville could be a 4A title contender. But it won't and Dixie will reap the benefits. The Flyers average 30.6 points per game and the Lakers slowing down Mike Sharp and John Matuauto is probably too much to expect. Dixie 24, Bonneville 9.

TP: It's nice to see you here Lakers. It's safe to say, 95 percent of high school fans thought Bonneville would be one and done. Well 95 percent of high school fans thought wrong. It's hard to imagine that a team that averages 18 points a game, and gives up 16 can make a run in the playoffs. I'm a big fan of Blaine Monkres. I always loved how Fremont teams came to play under him. That just shows how big of a football nerd I am, not many 16-year-olds pay attention to opposing coaching schemes. I really like the way the Flyers are playing football right now. Dixie 27, Bonneville 14.

AA: I like how Dixie is playing football right now, too. I guess I'm not sure why Bonneville's offense is struggling so bad right now. I know they have some talent on that side of the ball. But you know what? It doesn't matter. Their defense is grumbling, and I think the Lakers will ugly this game up. When I talked with Bonneville coach Matt Williams during the preseason, he wasn't shy about saying his team had a shot at reaching the turf and he thought it would get there. You don't hear coaches say stuff like that, and it was refreshing. So forget Nostradamus. I'm going with Nostra-Williams here. Bonneville 14, Dixie 13

Mountain Crest at Highland
JC: This game should be much closer than when these teams met in the first week of the season. At that time, Alex Kuresa shredded the Ram secondary and Alex Knowles ran all over their front seven. Things are different now. Highland has scored at least four touchdowns in six of its last seven games. I think they will be better prepared for the Mustangs this time. But Mountain Crest was also my preseason 4A title pick for a reason. Kuresa averages more than 250 yards and nearly three TDs per game through the air. If he plays up to his normal standard, Mountain Crest can punch a ticket for the semis. Mountain Crest 35, Highland 23.

TP: The date - August 21st 2009. The significance? These two teams met the first week of the season, and it wasn't even a contest. Mountain Crest traveled to Highland and whipped the Rams 48-27, and it should have been a lot worse. However, things have changed. Highland found its mojo and is currently on a seven game win streak. Not too shabby, plus as the saying goes - it's always harder to beat a team twice. It's true, bulletin board material is serious stuff, but, Mountain Crest is nasty good. I picked the Mustangs to win it all at the start of the season, and I'm not jumping ship yet. The Pony Express wins yet again. MC 38, Highland 28.

AA: Highland games are always tough for me. I made a deal with someone at Highland to always pick against the Rams and I broke that deal when I took them against Woods Cross. I was right. So I now consider myself a Highland expert. In the two games I saw the Rams play this season they averaged 41.5 points in wins over Olympus and Woods Cross. I'll see them play again today in a long-awaited rematch with the Mustangs. Although I can see the game going either way, I picked Mountain Crest to win it all in 4A, so I can't back down from that pick now. It's going to be a shootout, folks. Mountain Crest 51.5, Highland 41.5

Woods Cross at Springville
JC: With a victory here, the Wildcats can go to the semifinals for the first time since 1993 -- their last winning season before this year. Springville hasn't reached the semis since 1985 -- the same year Marty McFly was introduced to the world. Back then, Scott Mitchell quarterbacked the Red Devils to a state title. Both teams have balanced offenses that can run and pass. Who breaks the drought here? My guess is Springville. The Red Devils allow just 12.5 points per game -- and the team with the better defense usually gets the edge in the playoffs. Springville 24, Woods Cross 17.

TP: Well if you're superstitious, and you're also a Woods Cross fan - pay close attention to what I say about this game. Other than the Highland game, which easily could have gone the other way - I've yet to choose a Wildcats game correctly. Whether I thought they would win or lose, it always slips the other way. So, I'm about to mutter satanic words in the eyes of Devils fans … pun intended. I think Springville advances. Springville 21, Woods Cross 17.

AA: This is an interesting game and a tough one to pick. I jumped on the WX bandwagon before the season started. People thought I broke my ankle jumping off at certain points of the season, but that wasn't the case. I can't pick them to win every week. But after seeing that Trevor has picked against the Wildcats, I know who to take. People will wonder what in the name of Kitt Rawlings is going on here when WX plays on the turf next week. Woods Cross 22, Springville 21

Saturday:
Morgan at Hurricane
JC: This rematch of one of last season's 3A semifinals does not favor the Trojans. Why? Because this is on Hurricane's home turf instead of "the turf". Morgan could not crack the Tiger defense when these two teams met a year ago in the playoffs. Given that Hurricane has allowed just 15.7 points per game at home this season, I see no reason why that will change this time around. Hurricane 30, Morgan 17.

TP: Morgan is one of the teams I've seen in person. I'm usually in the office on Friday's, so rarely am I able to go watch teams in person. However, what I saw in the Trojans, was hardly impressive. Park City torched them that night. Unlike the Miners, Morgan doesn't have the athletes and jaw-dropping speed that Park City claims. Hurricane does. I don't care who you are, putting 74 points on the board is an impressive feat. This one gets ugly. Hurricane 42, Morgan 14.

AA: I also saw the Trojans on a bad night, but everyone looks bad against Juan Diego. I think the Trojans have some good players, but not enough to get past a strong Hurricane team. Hurricane 24, Morgan 6

South Sevier vs San Juan
JC: I always get a few laughs out of seeing Rams fans pumping up Wilson and Bishoff like they are the second coming of Montana and Rice. I agree they are solid 2A football players. I don't agree that they could walk over most 4A and 5A teams like some rabid South Sevier fans would have you believe. This could be the best game all day on Saturday. The edge goes to San Juan. The Broncos have won 16 straight over the Rams since 1980 and have a good enough defense to negate South Sevier's offensive weapons. San Juan 21, South Sevier 16.

TP: Out of all the games on this week's slate, this one is the most intriguing to me for a couple of reasons. First, I'm a huge South Sevier homer - I'll admit…I love the Rams. I picked them against all odds to win the state title and with every win - my passion grew for the program. Second, it's a darn good game. The two teams combined have an 18-2 record. That's all that needs to be said, it's a shame that one of these teams season will be over, but that's what makes sports so wonderful. Just like Andrew can't find it within him to pick against Murray, West or Woods Cross, I have the same problem with South Sevier. Well, JD Brooks, I agree with you that Orion Wilson and Dillon Bishoff are studs - and WILL get it done. South Sevier 21, San Juan 20.

AA: When one team beats another 16 straight times, it's hard to go against that type of history. I couldn't get South Sevier games right this season, mainly because it was hard to get over Trevor's undying love for the Rams. It was like that night he was cheering the Cougars on to victory against Oklahoma. And wait a second. Murray, West and Woods Cross? I think one of those teams doesn't belong in there. Anyway, I have to go with San Juan here. Too much of a history in beating in South Sevier and maybe a better all-around team. Maybe. San Juan 21, South Sevier 20

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My lead is slowly disappearing, however, I don't care if I pick...

FRiDAY NiGHT RiDER | Nov. 6, 2009 at 2:07 p.m.

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