Who'll take checkered flag? Race begins

Wilson: Like a rare solar eclipse, there are times in politics that come together like a cosmic occurrence. The juices run and pundits get up early in the morning to scan the dailies looking for the latest hot information. Such a time is upon us. Ladies and gentlemen, "Start your campaigns!" Utah's 2004 gubernatorial election is shaping up to generate the heat and furor of an Indy 500.

The 2004 gubernatorial campaign is especially significant because we have a real Democratic candidate and a very competitive race. And we have an incumbent governor who may be able to smash all records of office longevity. And we have a host of heavy-hitter Republican challengers who are well-financed and have strong credentials.

For Republicans, Utah's single ruling party, winning the nomination among so many big-time candidates is going to be a tough, expensive and exhausting battle. The entry of former Attorney General Paul Van Dam into the Democratic race gives Scott Matheson Jr. some competition, although Democrats tend to rally around the best candidate.

Because we think the gubernatorial race is going to be a great spectator sport, we're going to periodically rate the candidates on what chances we think they have of winning. It's very early in the process, of course, and our ratings are entirely subjective, are not based on any research or polling and really don't mean much. Campaign momentum ebbs and flows, and a candidate who is down today might be on top tomorrow.

We will rate candidates from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning a candidate has no chance of winning and 10 signifying a sure winner. Here are our guesses as of today:

Republicans

Mike Leavitt

Wilson: 7. The only thing that could stop him from a fourth term is that we are tired of him.

Webb: 9. If he runs. But I don't think he'll run.

Marty Stephens

Wilson: 5. The best prepared campaign to date; but even so Stephens is a bit stiff and hasn't yet learned to use his present position as House speaker to advance himself politically.

Webb: 6. Stephens doesn't have the style or presence of some of the other candidates, but he's smart, going for it, and has a lot of interaction with delegates.

Nolan Karras

Wilson: 5. Finally, he is running. Karras enjoys great respect for his work as a former legislator and Olympic executive. Will have some heavy hitters backing him.