Doug Robinson: NBA free agency is entirely predictable — and all wrong

Published: Tuesday, July 8 2014 7:45 p.m. MDT

Updated: Wednesday, July 9 2014 4:14 p.m. MDT

Houston Rockets fan Frank Vasquez takes a photograph of free agent forward Carmelo Anthony wearing Rockets jerseys in composite images on the Toyota Center marquee on Wednesday, July 2, 2014, in Houston. Anthony was wearing his No. 7 in both renderings, despite the fact that current Rocket Jeremy Lin wears that number. The Rockets would likely have to unload the point guard to snag Anthony.

Billy Smith II, HOUSTON CHRONICLE

The NBA free agent sweepstakes are underway and so far it’s business as usual. Which is to say teams are getting it all wrong.

Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony are being courted heavily and reportedly will get max deals. That was entirely predictable — and dumb. And those unconfirmed reports of Gordon Hayward being offered a max deal by the Cavaliers? If true, that’s just nonsensical. As for LeBron James — he’s the one big-name star who plays up to his reputation.

That’s the opinion of David Berri. He’s a professor of applied economics at Southern Utah University and author of two sports books, "Wages of Wins" and "Stumbling on Wins.” He was espousing the principles of “Moneyball” before it became a movie. I call Berri when I see the brightest people in professional sports following foolish old habits, especially in free agency, which is why I called him this week.

Berri believes the NBA rewards the wrong players for the wrong reasons. They reward scoring average, but how valuable is a 25-point scorer if he is hitting only 40 percent of his shots? When Berri rates players, he weights everything in the box score in terms of its impact on wins, which is, after all, the point.

“Wins in basketball are driven by shooting efficiency and gaining/keeping possession of the ball (i.e. rebounds and turnovers),” says Berri. “A player's scoring totals are not a good measure of effectiveness, since these can be driven by shot attempts, which are primarily just taken from teammates. The free agent market, though, rewards scoring totals.”

At my request, Berri rated the current crop of free agents. Not surprisingly, his ranking of free agents is different than the rankings found on the Internet or, apparently, those produced by NBA teams.

Anthony, the most famous and coveted of the free agents other than James, ranks no better than 41st. He averaged 27 points per game last season — but he took more than 21 shots per game. His shooting percentage: 45.

“Carmelo is very much overrated,” says Berri. “Nine of the 12 players who played for the Spurs shot better than Carmelo. The reason he scores so many points is because he takes so many shots. That’s what he’s always done. I don’t think you need statistics (to see he is overrated). Denver got better when he left. New York wasn’t better with him. And now he is 30 years old. You would think the decision-makers in the NBA would pick up on those data points.”

Chris Bosh, one of the Big Three in Miami, ranks 74th, and yet he reportedly has been offered a four-year max deal by the Rockets. “Bosh is overrated,” says Berri. “He’s about average. … His productivity with the Heat declined relative to his play with the Raptors, but he’s older. It doesn’t seem likely he’ll improve with another team.”

You are probably wondering if his stats dropped because he played alongside superstars. Says Berri, "Bosh did a bit less with James and (Dwyane) Wade. In general, there hasn't been much systematic evidence that players impact a teammate's productivity. Players are consistent from season to season and even when they switch teams we still see quite a bit of consistency."

Hayward is getting a lot of attention in the free agent market, but Berri ranks him only 49th among free agents. “His shooting efficiency has declined each season he has been in the league,” Berri says. “But his rebounding took a leap last year. He’s an average player. He certainly is not a great scorer, judging by his shooting efficiency. But his scoring totals are attracting the attention of other teams.”

Not every star is overrated. James ranks No. 1 among free agents because, as Berri says, “He shoots at an amazingly efficient rate — 50 percent.”

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