California millionaire pushes minimum wage as a conservative cause
But Unz expects any employment effect to be minimal. He points to the last time California hiked its minimum wage, by 35 percent in 1996. That move was followed by four years of surging economy in California. This was part of a national rising tide, he concedes, but there is no evidence that the wage hike did anything to restrain that growth. More recently the city of San Jose raised its own minimum wage, and critics feared it would result in massive employment declines there. That also did not happen.
Unz may be handing conservatives a lifeline by reframing the issue to allow them to support higher minimum wages, notes Brookings Institution scholar Bill Galston, who echoes Unz’s claim that higher wages could result in significant savings in social welfare spending.
Galston points to a recent Quinnipiac poll that showed a vast majority of voters support a significant hike in the minimum wage, with a consensus settling roughly around the $10.10 suggested by President Obama, up from $7.25 an hour today. A whopping 71 percent favors increasing the minimum wage, including 52 percent of Republicans and 69 percent of the all-important independents.
Galston thinks the magic number is very close to the $10.10 proposed by Obama, based on the poll: 47 percent supported that number, and the remainder were evenly divided between something lower.
“Politicians have intuition about what the traffic will bear,” Galston said, noting that 49 percent of Republicans surveyed favored $10.10, with some favoring higher. “From a rank and file standpoint, this is not such a wedge issue,” Galston said. “Even the Republicans' own base embraces higher wages."
Against the tide
Mike Saltsman, research director for the Employment Policy Institute, is fighting against a heavy tide. A nonprofit think tank with ties to the restaurant and hospitality industries, EPI has been leading the fight against a higher minimum wage, which Saltsman says would “decimate the entry-level job market.”
Last week, EPI ran an ad in the New York Times with an image of a destitute woman in a hoodie holding a cardboard sign that said, “I don’t need a raise, I need a job.” The headline said, “The Best Weapon in the War on Poverty is a Job,” and the subtext added that “President Obama and Senate Democrats want to raise the minimum wage to $10.10 to help the poor. But nearly 60 percent of the working-age poor don’t have a job and wouldn’t be affected. Of those who would receive a raise, just 13 percent live in poor families. That’s why most studies show a wage hike doesn’t reduce poverty.”
Saltsman’s main argument is that minimum wage is an ineffective way to target the poor. Not everyone with low wages is poor, he says. Many are teenagers, and those who need access to entry-level jobs would threatened by hamburger machines.
Saltsman's preferred approach to poverty is to let the market decide how much the job is worth and use targeted government programs, like food stamps and the earned income tax credit, to make up the difference. This, he argues, would focus resources on those who need them most and not disperse them amongst middle class teenagers, for example.
“We do it through the tax code so we can accomplish it without the unintended consequences that comes with higher minimum wage," Saltsman said. In short, he believes the tax code can more effectively channel assistance to the poor without oversubsidizing middle class teenagers or robbing entry-level workers of opportunities.
Unz responds that the same logic could be turned on its head: the tax code could be tweaked to give employers tax deductions for hiring entry-level workers, essentially offsetting the higher wages with tax deductions. This would allow the government to give a boost to entry-level workers while requiring companies to pay a living wage to the rest.
Unz says that when he started his campaign for higher wages, he got stunned looks from many of his GOP allies, and three of the largest conservative talk radio voices on the West Coast invited him onto their shows to hash it out.
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