Broken down by generation, the group with the largest percentage of religious conservatives is the so-called Silent Generation, or those 65 and older. The baby boomer generation features roughly equal numbers of religious moderates and religious conservatives. By Generation X, born between 1965 and 1981, religious moderates dominate, and the largest share of religious progressives is found among Millennials, or those born after 1981, although there are still more religious moderates in this group.
“Our new research shows a complex religious landscape, with religious conservatives holding an advantage over religious progressives in terms of size and homogeneity,” said Jones in a news release. “However, the percentage of religious conservatives shrinks in each successive generation, with religious progressives outnumbering religious conservatives in the Millennial generation.”
PRRI's report ignited a lively online discussion on whether the voice of religion in politics and the culture wars will shift to a more progressive or moderate tone as Millennials and their children age. But even those who would fall into the religious progressive cohort are skeptical that such a group — if it exists — could band together and effectively compete with the religious right.
Schaeffer, the son of one of evangelical Christianity's icons, the late Francis Schaeffer, and who wrote a memoir about his leaving the faith titled "Crazy for God," said religious people on the left are too diverse to group together as a political force.
"Your average progressive evangelicals are against most, if not all, abortions," he said. "They are also in favor of gay rights and increasingly gay marriage, so what would you describe them as. That is where it all falls apart."
Both Schaeffer and Harden agree that if someone came to Wild Goose looking to enlist people into a political movement, they would leave disappointed.
"If it were about a candidacy or a political party it would not be well received," Harden said. "If it were around issues, then there is a greater likelihood of it working."
Jones agrees that transforming what PRRI has identified as religious progressives into a single-minded political movement would be a tall order.
In addition to not self-identifying as a single group and having a diversity of viewpoints and faith traditions, including nonreligious, Jones wrote that other obstacles to keeping religious progressives together include that they are dispersed around the country and not concentrated in any single area; religion is not the most important thing in their lives; they are less involved in their local congregations than conservatives, making it more difficult to communicate; and they are more likely to see their religion as a private matter and not refer to their faith in public debate.
"Organizing across such varied theological, cultural, ethnic and geographic terrain presents significant practical challenges for progressive religious leaders," Jones wrote, concluding that borrowing from the moral majority playbook of the 1980s won't work for religious progressives.
The Rev. Peter Laarman, director of Progressive Christians Uniting in Los Angeles, has been what PRRI would call a religious progressive his entire adult life. He said the diversity among religious progressives is both a strength because of the respect they have for differing viewpoints and a weakness because it prevents groups working on different issues from banding together for a single cause.
"The capacity of religious progressives to effect change is limited by the fact that they don’t know each other and they are fragmented into single-issue formations," said Laarman, an ordained minister in the United Church of Christ. "We don't have the convening power of the religious right."
He said the Democratic Party has tried to tap into this diverse group of believers with limited success. But the nonreligious cohort of progressives, Cox said, did turn out in 2012 for the re-election of President Barack Obama, giving the incumbent 70 percent of their vote, and some observers said they were key to Obama winning Ohio.
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