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What explains falling crime rates?

Published: Tuesday, Aug. 13 2013 6:00 a.m. MDT

Blumstein’s theory is that the election Barack Obama, the first black president, broadened young people’s vision of what is possible for their lives. This was especially true among young black men, whose crime rates during that year fell at almost twice the rate of their peers. Blumstein admits that more work needs to be done to evaluate this hypothesis. “It may just be a marginal effect and we need to do more research to see if [the Obama effect] shows up in other places,” he said, “But it is certainly plausible.”

Several other prominent sociologists share with Blumstein the view that the 2009 dip in crime was a result of the election of President Obama. For example, Ohio State University’s Randolph Roth argues that Obama's election reengaged black Americans in the political process. “The inauguration of the first black president...re-legitimized the government in the eyes of many African-Americans." he wrote, "It is likely that their greater trust in the political process and their positive feelings about the new president led to lower rates of urban violence.”

Yale sociologist Elijah Anderson believes Obama's election had a more psychological impact on Black Americans. “Now we have a sense of future,” he said in a 2011 interview with Slate. “All of a sudden you have a stake. That stake is extremely important. If you have a stake, now there’s risk — you realize the consequences of compromising an unknowable future.”

mwhite@deseretnews.com

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