“The primary complaint people tend to fall back on is the notion of education for education’s sake,” Massa said, and he acknowledges that many students will prefer to earn less if they can work in gratifying careers.
But Massa counters that parents and students have a right to make those judgments themselves, and cannot do so properly without real data.
“This puts all the different majors and degree programs on the same table of analysis, with a common basis of fact,” said Massa, a key player in building Virginia’s system now working with Sen. Wyden’s staff on the national proposal.
Following closely on Virginia’s move is Colorado, which this week launched its own database, built by and hosted at College Measures, a company that aims to harness this data around the country.
“Especially in today’s competitive marketplace,” wrote Gov. John Hickenlooper in a cover letter to the report, “it is critical for students and families to understand the return on their college investment in relation to the debt loads students will be carrying into their future.”
“There is a reality out there,” said College Measures president Mark Schneider, in Denver Wednesday for the unveiling of the new database. “The pattern is very clear. Business, health and technical fields pay a lot more than liberal arts degrees, at least in the short term. Community college technical degrees are very valuable.”
Schneider layers his Colorado data with heavy caveats. Most importantly, he notes, a large percentage of Colorado students come for the mountains and then leave the state for employment. The database loses all these students. It also loses any who take employment with the federal government.
Schneider also adds the standard caveat that current data only tracks earnings 18 months after graduation.
Given these caveats, care must be taken with the current data sets, says Trent Reindl at the National Governor’s Association, who has been tracking this issue for governors in multiple states.
The two big questions policymakers have to wrestle with are how to carry data across state boundaries,” Reindl said, noting that currently a student who leaves the state of their alma mater falls off Virginia’s radar.
The second concern, he said, is to measure performance over time. Virginia’s data at the moment only captures a snapshot in time — 18 months out. This is not negligible, Massa points out, since student loans are due at that point. But neither is it the complete picture.
Liberal arts majors, it is widely believed, have a higher growth potential than the technical fields or support health professions, which start fast but cap out earlier.
Reindl notes that many liberal arts majors feed into unexpected careers, and cites multiple philosophy majors he knows who work on Wall Street.
But he acknowledges that he doesn’t really know what the growth curve is for liberal arts majors. “I think that’s another reason we should be doing these sort of data mashes, because we don’t really know, conclusively.”
There is, then, broad agreement on the next steps in this effort.
The first is to nationalize the data, hopefully by using Social Security records, which are much more powerful than the unemployment data currently used. This will allow states to account for those who work out-of-state, closing a critical gap.
And the second is to push the data back in time. “It’s not just what happens six months or a year after graduation, but what happens three years after you graduate. You don’t necessarily get the high-paying job right out of college.”
In addition to the above two variables, Virginia is adding a third. Later this year, the state will bring student debt data on line, alongside the earnings data. Major by major, program by program.
“That will be a whole new set of discussions,” Massa said.
Eric Schulzke writes on national politics for the Deseret News. He can be contacted at firstname.lastname@example.org.
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