Karim Kadim, File, Associated Press
BAGHDAD — If Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki wins a third four-year term in parliamentary elections Wednesday, he is likely to rely on a narrow sectarian Shiite base, only fueling divisions as Iraq slides deeper into bloody Shiite-Sunni hatreds.
After eight years in power, al-Maliki is facing sharper criticism from all sides.
The Sunni minority views him as a diehard champion of Shiite power. His former Kurdish allies now shun him, accusing him of trying to impose Baghdad's power over their autonomous region in the north. And even some of al-Maliki's Shiite backers denounce him as a would-be dictator, amassing power for himself.
The 63-year-old al-Maliki is still seen as likely to keep his post. Many in the Shiite majority see no alternative, and he holds a trump card — the support of neighboring powerhouse Iran, which al-Maliki's own aides say will use its weight to push discontented Shiite factions into backing him for another term.
That, however, could mean a victory on an even narrower base than in his re-election four years ago, when he barely managed to cobble together enough Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni backers to form a government.
The Shiite al-Maliki rose from relative obscurity to office in 2006, when Iraq's sectarian bloodletting began to spiral out of control, with Sunni militants and Shiite militias butchering each other's communities. He quickly became known for a tough hand, working in alliance with American forces in the country since the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
Over the years that followed, Sunni tribes backed by the Americans rose up to fight al-Qaida-linked militants, while al-Maliki showed a readiness to rein in Shiite militiamen — and by 2008, the violence had eased.
Since the withdrawal of American forces in late 2011, however, it has swelled again, stoked in part by al-Maliki. His moves last year to crush protests by Sunnis complaining of discrimination under his Shiite-led government sparked a new wave of violence by militants, who took over the city of Fallujah in the western, Sunni-dominated province of Anbar and parts of the provincial capital Ramadi. Iraqi army and police forces battling them for months have been unable to take most areas back.
At the same time, many Iraqis increasingly complain of government corruption and the failure to rebuild the economy.
"Al-Maliki has had enough chance to prove himself, but he failed," said Hassan Karim, a university graduate from Baghdad's Shiite Sadr City district. "Iraqis lack security, services and housing. The only two things available in the country right now are corruption and checkpoints."
The normally aloof al-Maliki has struck a populist tone in his campaign, aiming to show he is tackling problems like corruption and poverty that cross sectarian boundaries.
He has distributed plots of land to poor Iraqis in ceremonies carried live on state television. He made heavily televised visits to government departments that provide vital services, like car registration and ID and passport offices, comforting Iraqis standing in line. During one visit, he berated an employee for being insensitive to the hardships endured by Iraqis seeking services.
In a slick campaign video, he speaks of growing up in a village south of Baghdad in a family of clan chiefs and fondly recalls playing football and swimming in a local river. He affectionately remembers a grandfather who used his poetry to criticize British colonial rule and talks of his own love for Iraq.
"I believe the election will not produce a prime minister better than al-Maliki. He is the lesser of many evils," said hotel employee Mohammed Hadi, a Shiite from eastern Baghdad. "Al-Maliki has good experience ... Any other prime minister will be starting from scratch."
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