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Republican edge in 2014 Senate bids muddied by shutdown messages

Julie Hirschfeld Davis

Published: Wednesday, Oct. 2 2013 10:42 a.m. MDT

FILE ? In this April 18, 2013, file photo Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., speaks at a Capitol Hill news conference with the Senate's "Gang of Eight", the bipartisan team pushing an immigration overhaul, to outline their immigration reform legislation that would creates a path for 11 million unauthorized immigrants to apply for U.S. citizenship.

Associated Press

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WASHINGTON — The partial government shutdown may undermine Republicans' edge in the 2014 campaign, harming a prime opportunity to win control of the Senate and protect their 32-seat House advantage.

Heading into the midterm elections, the political math favors Republicans. Democrats are defending seven Senate seats in politically competitive states compared with only two for their adversaries.

The shuttering of the government, which is deeply unpopular with voters, could cut into those advantages by obscuring their message and highlighting internal rifts, political strategists from both parties said.

"It's not helpful for us because it takes Republicans off offense at a time when we should be taking advantage of a favorable map," said Brian Walsh, of Washington-based Singer Bonjean Strategies who is a former aide to the party's Senate campaign committee. "Republicans should be on offense right now on Obamacare, and instead, all the focus is on infighting and the shutdown."

Voters disapprove of the job being done by congressional Republicans by 74 percent to 17 percent — their lowest score ever — while disapproving of Democrats' job performance 60 percent to 32 percent, according to a national poll released Tuesday by Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Conn. President Obama had a 45 percent to 49 percent job- approval rating.

"The American people are so fed up they may blame everyone involved, and that's not good for Democrats either," said Jim Manley, a senior director at Quinn Gillespie & Associates LLC who is a former top aide to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. "The saving grace for Senate Democrats in 2014 is that House and Senate Republicans are making their party brand so toxic they're going to make our job easier."

Democrats currently control the Senate with 54 votes to Republicans' 46, putting a takeover in reach if Republicans win a net six seats. Republicans dominate in the House with 232 seats to Democrats' 200, with three vacancies. Most congressional districts are politically safe for incumbents because the House district lines are favorably drawn to match the voters' partisan leanings. That makes the task of a Democratic takeover — a 17-seat gain — a tall order.

While the shutdown showdown doesn't change those facts, "the Republicans may be widening the path for us" to win seats, said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel, a New York representative.

"This will be a referendum on their dysfunction, their chaos and their hurting the economy and middle-class families," Israel said in an interview.

As national parks closed and federal workers stayed home, some voters voiced frustration that gridlock persists.

"I don't necessarily like Obamacare, but the agreement was made and it became law," said Brian Anderson of Dalton, Georgia, an independent in a heavily Republican district who is president of his local Chamber of Commerce. Linking an effort to defund the Affordable Care Act to keeping the government open "has been farcical," he added.

Following the 1995-96 partial government shutdowns, then- President Bill Clinton won re-election with 49 percent over his Republican rival Bob Dole, while Democrats chipped away at Republicans' House majority, gaining two seats without taking control. Senate Republicans gained two seats and maintained power.

The next midterms are more than a year away, and the current saga may be a dim memory for voters by then. What's more, the Affordable Care Act, also called Obamacare, is likely to be an overriding issue in 2014 contests, with Democrats on defense on what polls show today is an unpopular measure.

The most recent Bloomberg National Poll found 3 in 5 respondents saying they thought the law would raise medical-care costs, not lower them. A third said they would fare worse rather than better under it. Even so, a majority of Americans said Republicans should stop demanding the statute be defunded in exchange for keeping the government open.

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